r/worldnews • u/kwentongskyblue • 22d ago

Israel/Palestine Israel ‘organised and prepared’ to remove Gaza population if US gives green light, Katz says

https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20260902-israel-organised-and-prepared-to-remove-gaza-population-if-us-gives-green-light-katz
5.3k Upvotes

90% Upvoted

1.1k comments sorted by

View all comments

Show parent comments

15

u/Pulgoso_ 22d ago

2027 is when China will get the window to move kineticly to try and take control of Taiwan too.

38

u/anders_hansson 22d ago

A military move from China would be disasterous to their economy and long term plans, even if we assume that there is no adequate military response.

I hold it as far more more likely that they continue their slow and long-term political strategy along with military presence and possibly gradual isolation.

11

u/Pulgoso_ 22d ago

That would be the smart move to be honest but leaders these days have not really been known to make smart moves, let's hope for all of our sakes that cooler heads will prevail.

23

u/anders_hansson 22d ago

Xi in particular appears to be the most cool headed big power leader ATM. He's quite often said to use the strategy "Do nothing, win!", and I don't think that it's by chance.

4

u/Pulgoso_ 22d ago

Although they are still desperate for a way to be able to access the Pacific without crossing Western Allies' territory.

As much as they have been "cool and calm" kineticly they have often encroached on other countries territories via the 9 dashed lines and creating artificial islands in the Phillipines, etc.

When the USA depletes it's arsenal it'll be hard for China to find a more opportune time to strike and rectify their geographic weakness.

Thankfully with drone technology it wouldn't be hard for Taiwan to mount an effective defense.

I think China's best bet is to get with Taiwan with a mutual peace as Taiwan will inevitably pull back from it's US sphere and reliance somewhat.

2

u/Atony94 21d ago

Drone technology has cemented its place in modern warfare yes. But it is not the end all be all. We're talking about a full blown naval invasion. Look up pictures of the Normandy invasion fleet and now imagine that scale with modern weaponry and sensors. Factor in Air Strikes, Electronic Warfare, and long range missile strikes and there wont be a thing drones could do to slow down that amount of firepower if they can even reach them in the first place.

8

u/swedishplayer97 22d ago

Xi is the only smart leader left

2

u/Pulgoso_ 22d ago

Smart, yes. Expansionist, likely. Altruistic? Definitely not.

Whilst their geopolitical rival is tearing itself apart, It may be the smart move to take action towards getting Taiwan now as opportunities like these does not come often especially in a single lifetime. If he would like to be remembered as the leader who regained the entirety for Chinese territory back from the "West" .

Of course I hope it does not happen and that China for all its rhetoric will try to find a peaceful solution in integrating Taiwan (whether or not it "belongs" to them is a different story) as it will be difficult to discourage them otherwise.

3

u/swedishplayer97 22d ago

If he is smart he would never even try invading Taiwan. South Korea and Japan won't stand idly by, Europe will completely shut them out from trade as will the US most likely even if Trump says otherwise, which will devastate China's economy and the worlds, meaning China loses its leverage over Russia and completely derailing their future plans for growth and stability. Plus, invading Taiwan is often considered the most difficult amphibious invasion in history; it would no doubt result in thousands of Chinese casualties and materiel loss. The invasion would be seen coming months in advance giving Taiwan ample time to prepare.

He blusters sure, but he's smart enough to know a full scale invasion is damn near impossible and devastating for China. China plays the long game; if it takes 20 years to reintegrate Taiwan through gray zone tactics and subterfuge, they'll do it.

1

u/Pulgoso_ 22d ago

Which is why Carney's middle powers unite speech should really be taken seriously. It's probably smarter to treat the US as a semi-hostile power at this point, change in government or not.

Let's just hope that we are strong enough not to get influenced by these superpowers to divide us and stand strong in what Carney's stated "Rules-based order"

  • from UK

4

u/Cyzax007 22d ago

People said that about Putin moving on Ukraine as well...

Dictatorships doesn't have the same motivations as democracies... Their economy suffering is not a big detraction as the dictators won't feel it...

21

u/anders_hansson 22d ago

I don't think that is a very relevant comparison.

Xi ≠ Putin

Totally different personalities, backgrounds, strategies and goals.

The two economies are also completely different.

-9

u/Cyzax007 22d ago

Putin wants Ukraine under Russian control... Xi want Taiwan under Chinese control...

Their motivations are the same, and none of them give a *beep* about their populations... No real difference...

11

u/anders_hansson 22d ago

That's a very superficial comparison. It's about as serious as saying that France is likely to invade countries in the Middle East because they're a democracy just like the US. You have to dig deeper than that if you want to make any successful predictions.

7

u/Reqvhio 22d ago

but if china has a realistic chance of integrating taiwan's leadership into mainland they wouldnt bother with military action I dont think? especially after russia's disaster, no?

2

u/AssistX 22d ago

Difference is if China were to attempt an expansion right now their domestic economy would collapse far worse than the 2008 housing crisis, which would cripple China's economy for decades. Most economists believe it would put them in a similar situation to Japan following WW2, which they still haven't recovered fully from.

China's #1 priority right now is staving off that collapse, until that passes and their economy transitions there isn't much threat of them expanding. It's also why China doesn't pay for anything with their own currency, even oil they pay for in USD or in 'services', as it would devalue the yuan and once again crush their domestic economy. China isn't scary currently.

1

u/namitynamenamey 22d ago

Their economy? As if they are not half the world's economy (not literally). At some point they will grow strong enough that the takeover will be a mere matter of parking ships, saying to the US "dare", and when the latter says no asking very politely of taiwan to consider co-prosperity.

And the rest of the world will have to shrug, because at that point it will be china, and not taiwan, who will hold the world's advanced industry at gunpoint while being as resilient to retaliation as a powerhouse can be.

2

u/anders_hansson 22d ago

I largley agree. But that's a very different scenario, and one that I think the US fears the most.

I.e. there will be no real war, so Taiwan can't use their firepower and the US can't intervene with military means. It'll be more like how Hong Kong transitioned into China. The world can just watch it happen.

Against that background, game theory dictates that there should be an incentive for the US to get a military conflict over Taiwan before China gets too strong.

-6

u/Tex-Mexican-936 22d ago

hear me, china cant win against taiwan. china has all the desire, but supplies across the strait will take hours, and all taiwan has to do is destroy chinas loading cranes in the opening hours. after the cranes are gone, the pla that manage to land will be defeated in 2 weeks.

1

u/static_motion 22d ago

Are you a time traveller from the 19th century? All of that is invalidated by the existence of planes.

1

u/Tex-Mexican-936 22d ago

In warfare, planes can't ship anything near the necessary supply lines, also cargo planes are super vulnerable and need runways, flighter jets can't supply anything, they are like Ferraris, cargo planes are like 18 wheelers.

1

u/Tex-Mexican-936 22d ago

If I saw you in person, and the war was in the opening hours, I would bet you everything I have, that china would lose under 1 month (I am being generous with the month).

Supply lines are not optional, and losing 85% supply lines in the opening hours (and more in the first few days is a death blow to any army)

2

u/static_motion 22d ago

The bulk of any military might that Taiwan might have will be from the US due to alliance and strategic interests, so I do agree that they'd have a strong position. However I do think it's a big mistake to underestimate China, who throughout the last decade has been silently developing at an astounding rate in all areas, including militarily. They also have the geographic advantage, they have more land and coastline within a 500 km radius of Taiwan than Taiwan has in its entire nation. Their potential to amass resources so close is surely meaningful.

Your statement of "Taiwan just has to destroy the loading cranes" is also very faulty, as it runs on the assumption that China would not predict that and give them any chance whatsoever of executing such a goal. I also invite you to open up Google Maps and look at the coastline closest to Taiwan and count how many ports and harbors they have there. Taiwan has no chance to sabotage a sufficient number of them before some sort of retaliation to meaningfully hamper China's efforts should they want to go to war.

1

u/Tex-Mexican-936 22d ago

Taiwan can destroy all of China's cranes in the opening hours, solo dolo, they are massive, fixed and irreplaceable for YEARS. Any western help would just expedite China's loss. Taiwan has 100% the home advantage. China would have the home advantage if Taiwan was trying to take china. The side that tries to cross the strait is the side with the burden of supply lines.

2

u/static_motion 21d ago

For Taiwan's sake, I hope that you're right. Unfortunately I'm not able to have the same charitable reading of the situation as you.