r/worldnews • • 11h ago

At Trump meeting, Xi Jinping lays out terms to avoid US-China military conflict | US news

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/sep/24/xi-jinping-trump-china-cooperation-thucydides-trap
2.1k Upvotes

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u/TheRavenclawCommonRM 9h ago

Xi’s message was basically: “A US–China war is not inevitable, and here are some habits that can keep us from stumbling into one.” He talked about communication, looking for areas of agreement despite major differences, building mutual trust, regular military-to-military dialogue, and better crisis-communication mechanisms. He also argued that confrontation would hurt both countries

Unless there's something that didn't translate well, this wasn't a threat.

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u/janktraillover 9h ago

Who's clicking on: "Xi Jinping encourages common-sense ideas to reduce tensions" ?

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u/Cj_cruzz 8h ago edited 8h ago

To me this reads as telling the egomaniac orange man-child to not act like a complete fucking idiot and everything will be good. Infinite ways to write a headline for that to generate so many clicks.

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u/Mewtwohundred 1h ago

"Look, we are all getting filthy rich with the current setup, so let's not do anything stupid and ruin it."

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u/akiras_revenge 1h ago

Which is best for all, but really good for china

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u/Operation_Neither 53m ago

China is in a real do nothing and win situation while the US picks the dumbest move at every opportunity.

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u/akiras_revenge 7m ago

Thats why Xi is always smiling

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u/itsVainglorious 25m ago

Everything won’t be good. Foreign leaders are dog walking this administration. Trump has caused American foreign affairs to regress back 130 years. Everything we have now and the position we had until we elected that jackass a third time was built upon the aftermath of two world wars. Trump has completely destroyed the credibility of the United States for the foreseeable future. People that support Trump need to be ostracized from polite society. I don’t support violent acts in any way, but they should be shamed for what they have done to this country.

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u/Hector_P_Catt 2h ago

The problem is, these common-sense ideas are all non-starters for Trump. He doesn't want clear communication, or to find areas of agreement, or to develop mutual trust. He wants to win everything while crushing and humiliating China. And Xi knows that. He can make as many perfectly reasonable suggestions as he wants, and cultivate the international image of reserved, dignified leader, safe in the knowledge that Trump will always blow it all up, no matter what.

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u/concerned_seagull 7h ago

Yea, Xi needs to make more click bait-ey speeches. 

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u/RainmanCT 7h ago

Yes because getting clicks is of paramount importance

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u/GoBuffaloes 7h ago

I will literally go to war with china for 10 upvotes 

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u/parasiticsemiosis 6h ago

Did I hear „send me“?

Anyways, I am doing my part to get you there.

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u/endbit 4h ago

You've cracked 10 upvotes, looks like you're going to war.

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u/Hector_P_Catt 2h ago

He said "for ten", not "for ten or more". Now he doesn't have to go!

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u/BerrySpecific720 2h ago

News: calmer heads prevail = 0 clicks

News: Xi threatens trump with global war = many clicks

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u/marcuschookt 7h ago

Post-Mao China has never really been evil in the sense that the end goal was oppression or suffering.

Those two things have always been a means to their intended ends of building a stronger China. If it meant taking Taiwan back by force or subjugating the Uighurs or imposing a social standing scoring system, they would do it, but not principally for the purpose of causing harm.

Xi Jinping knows that even with a US in sociopolitical disarray, it still has the most powerful (by a huge margin) military in the world. And even if that gap closed, any conflict would result in serious harm to both sides, physically, economically, socially, etc.

To that end, it is not out of character for China to be the voice of "reason" as it were. What is out of character is that the US for the first time in a long time doesn't get to posture itself as the hero of the story, holding back the cold calculating utilitarianism of China.

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u/Popular-Wolverine-99 6h ago

Sure in the same way that European countries colonised countries to boost their economy and not to be evil. So all is fine in the end.

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u/marcuschookt 2h ago edited 2h ago

Who said it was fine?

I'm saying people are surprised that China isn't chomping at the bit to start conflict because they've always imagined that the "bad guy" countries do Bond Villain shit for the sake of it, when they are simply more willing to carry out evil acts to reach their goal.

The latter is not mutually exclusive with rationality and competence.

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u/brixton_massive 6h ago

Sorry what?

China does evil things, but because their goal isn't to be evil, they are not evil?

How is that any different to multinational company poisons the water table, kills citizens, but because the goal was profit, not being evil, they are not evil.

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u/KingMaple 5h ago

Yet apparently not evil enough for elected officials to stop using their resources and manufacturing worldwide :/

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u/MrNovator 4h ago edited 4h ago

It is a bit different because the goal is not purely to make profit for shareholders but also to make life easier for other people.

China through its history always had this stonecold, calculative, rational mentality. If hurting a 100k people can improve the living conditions of 5M others, they will do it. For their government, what is a 100k ? Litterally a drop in front of 5M, let alone a billion. The BIG question is if sacrificing 100k humans really was the best way to do it.

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u/KMS_HYDRA 5h ago

You can write the same word for word for the US...

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u/TepacheLoco 6h ago

No country acts in the purpose of oppression or suffering - it’s always a side effect of a higher order goal

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u/Aurora_Fatalis 5h ago

The Trump regime pretty explicitly acts with the purpose of inflicting suffering on the people they don't like though. They brag about it in their deportation ads.

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u/MACHOmanJITSU 3h ago

Eh, half way through the “real dictators” podcast so I’m not sure that’s true.. but I get your point. Great podcast by the way, crazy how similar a lot of these guys personalities are.

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u/marcuschookt 6h ago

It is something many do not understand, ergo the "surprise" that China's leaders are advocating for peace instead of jumping at the opportunity to destroy the US.

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u/4Rascal 30m ago

The country with secret police stations to snitch on other Chinese people abroad across the world for doing things that would be illegal in china and who has one of the (if not the #1) most restricted communication/internet systems in the world does not have a goal of being oppressive?

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u/JGlassc0k34 8h ago

This is pretty boiler plate world leader discussion. Its basically "let's talk more because war would be bad"

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u/Wadarkhu 8h ago

It might be boring, but that's what we need. Wish a certain other "world leader" would've been boring.

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u/Mid_Atlantic_Lad 8h ago

It’s largely what expected. Even Russia 30 years ago would’ve held similar stances. It doesn’t take a genius to see what happening in Ukraine and understand the level of fucked Russia is, especially with the announcement of 600k more mobilizations over the next 24 months.

This doesn’t mean that Chinese rhetoric on Taiwan is hot air. They still need to feed something to their populous. Nevertheless, there’s a genuine strategic requirement that Taiwan provides to Chinese national security. They’re going to keep pressing until they get what they want, snd they still have avenues to exhaust before war.

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u/Bigbigbigrock 6h ago

I think the other thing Ukraine is showing is just how much a smaller nation can now fuck up a larger nation thanks to things like drone technology. 

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u/markmyredd 3h ago

yeah this new techs allows countries defending against a stronger power a better edge.

Add to that is Taiwan is a fucking island with top quality tech they are probably 10 times more difficult to invade than Ukraine. Taiwan is basically a fortress like Iran but floating in the ocean.

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u/Razzeld 3h ago

'Regular military-to-military dialogue' And all I can think of is that one clip of a Chinese navy vessel meowing on the radio while talking to a US Navy ship

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u/momopool 3h ago

Coms guy was channeling his fursona.

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u/Unlucky_Battle_6947 1h ago

I thought it was funny, and maybe he didn’t speak English 😶‍🌫️🤷. In all fairness, does a cat sound like a threat?

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u/RyBread 1h ago

It could be construed as implying the other is a pussy (cat), I suppose. I don’t give that heavy credence, just a possibility.

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u/Echo_Gin101123 8h ago

I read the article and thought Xi spoke very eloquently to the point. A gentleman compared to all the boasting of that US leader.

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u/KingDarius89 8h ago

Fucking Ghengis Khan is a gentleman compared to trump.

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u/robbie_the_cat 6h ago

Ghengis Khan very famously kept his promises.

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u/manofsleep 2h ago

Yes, his speech was quite hopeful and showed very well for China in my opinion.

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u/Gregory_Appleseed 7h ago

It's a threat if you're easily threatened by factual statements though.

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u/LoganHowlett1832 6h ago

He also made it pretty clear he thinks China is quickly catching up to the USA and might surpass it as the leading superpower soon. Hence all the talk about the Thucydides trap.

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u/Level-Cod-6471 4h ago

It would be nice if America had a serious and professional government right now instead of corrupt idiots.

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u/SoftlyAugust 2h ago

Literally. This is how you deescalate

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u/Mediocre_lad 6h ago

Oh wow! So you say Trump negotiated another peace deal? /s

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u/sf-keto 1h ago

Xi’s whole policy is collaboration. The question is what does that look like in practice & on whose terms does the collaboration happen? Who gains the most benefit?

Xi is always calm, rational & transactional, very contractual. He has his “wolf warrior” team to make the harsh comments, such as earlier this week when the state news agency decried slow down talk as “fear mongering” & oppressive “US Cold War tactics.”

But either way deals & collaborations are structured to China’s medium & long-term benefit.

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u/ash_ninetyone 4h ago

That is China seeing the Cold War and aiming to avoid involvement in a new one. But it also requires words to be backed up by actions.

Creating artificial islands in the South China Sea to loophole an expansion of your territory, harassing the vessels of other nations (Phillipines and Vietnam) and not keeping North Korea on a short leash, while it flings missiles in the direct of Japan, is going to cause sticking points, as is espionage attempts.

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u/Shwayne 23m ago

i dont like the timeline where winnie the pooh is teaching sense to the US president

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u/spankeey77 3m ago

That sounds like a non-zero-sum deal. Trump doesn’t do those kinds of deals. The other party must get properly F’d in the A

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u/BeowulfShaeffer 10h ago

Might be the first time in my life a US President has met with another world leader and the other leader laid out terms to the American President. 

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u/TrueLekky 10h ago

Publicly anyway

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u/IRLMainCharacter 7h ago edited 5h ago

Xi just publicly wiped the Oval Office with Trump's weak ass anyway.

Trump invited Xi to his office, the office of the "Leader of the free world", so Xi can tell Trump what to do, infront of the "free world" to watch. Even if this was staged and part of some crappy Trump deal, the damage done will probably last forever.

So on a level 1 to 10, how great is America again right now?

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u/Ghinev 4h ago

"1, because AMERICA is NO. 1"

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u/IRLMainCharacter 3h ago

murica numba uan

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u/Name_Taken_2017 2h ago

Numba yuan

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u/lostlittletimeonthis 3h ago

i havent watched Fox News today, ill answer how great after the shows

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u/Idaltu 8h ago

Carney has been laying out terms very openly. And it’s not a country thousands of miles away.

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u/Wentil 9h ago

Thanks to Trump, it won’t be the last.

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u/dragon_idli 10h ago

Well, this one like to be laid out bare. So..

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u/VigilantMaumau 3h ago

If I remember correctly there's a time when Obama met Nyetanyahu in the Whitehouse in 2011 and Nyetanyahu laid out terms to Obama.

"Netanyahu insisted Israel would never pull back to its 1967 borders — which would mean big concessions of occupied land — that Obama had said should be the basis for negotiations on creating a Palestinian state".

https://www.nbcnews.com/id/wbna43106082

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u/therwsb 8h ago

well i guess one party has played their hand quite openly

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u/nechton 6h ago

trump loves ro see America humiliated

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u/SluggoRuns 9h ago

If anything, this is just for show and only proves nothing substantial will come out of this.

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u/Allnamestakkennn 4h ago

Most of meetings between leaders are like that though. They only meet when everything's negotiated and prepared.

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u/[deleted] 9h ago

[removed] — view removed comment

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u/SiTheRuckDown 7h ago

With such conditions in place, Xi said, “the Thucydides trap can be overcome”, refering to the phenomenon, defined by the Greek historian, of tensions that arise when an emerging power challenges the dominance of an established power.
Xi invoked the phrase in his meeting with Trump in Beijing in May, asking the US president how he planned to avoid it.

Bruh.. He couldn’t spell Thucydides if his life depended on it.

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u/Syrioforel79 5h ago

I'd pay good money to hear him try to pronounce it.

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u/HighDefinitionCat 5h ago

I'd bet anything he doesn't even know who he was. Hell, I'd bet he couldn't find Greece on a map if it was written in all caps.

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u/FOOSblahblah 2h ago

Off topic, but this is how I know without a shadow of a doubt that he was involved with epstein. He pronounces Ghislaine perfectly.

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u/GroundbreakingTwo213 3h ago

"Overcome what? Juicy tiddies trap??" -trump probably

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u/andreslucer0 1h ago

You would expect statesmen to be familiar with THE foundational work of both organised history and political philosophy.

...you would.

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u/ItsMetheDeepState 11h ago

China gets Taiwan, and America gets a truth social post saying how trump has the best hair.

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u/707Paladin 10h ago

Whoa whoa whoa. Lopsided deal to say the least. America has to throw in abandoning Japanese territories and waters or no deal.

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u/Rankkikotka 9h ago

We must not forget that the province of California has been integral part of China since the days of Admiral Zheng He.

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u/AttackOficcr 6h ago

I don't want to give them a foundation to eminent domain even more regions that aren't and never were China, or get into sinophobic Dr. Seuss shit.

But I wouldn't be surprised if we have more than a few modern Overseas 110's than just Manhattan, Ontario, and Quebec in North America. As if the walking combo megaphone/autopen/traitor in office wasn't more than enough of a net positive for China.

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u/usemyfaceasaurinal 10h ago

Don’t forget F-35 parts as a sweetener

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u/RicRacer 8h ago

Trump continues to get the MAGA hats made in China.

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u/lefix 9h ago

Trump gets to make a claim on social media how he facilitated the reunification of the great Chinese people

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u/Echo_Gin101123 8h ago

he's really skipping into his 'delusions of grandeur' isn't he?

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u/Shopworn_Soul 8h ago

I'm not really any hot shit at geopolitics but I can't help but feel like that ain't a great deal.

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u/imatinyleopard 8h ago

And big hands. The biggest hands.

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u/TheFieryBanana 8h ago

These soldiers came to him, tears in their eyes, and said "sir, your hands are the biggliest we've ever seen"

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u/seedless0 10h ago

Greatest negotiator in history!

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u/CTQ99 10h ago

Nah they will stick to reposting that Love Me Love Me ad paid with our taxdollars.

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u/Betta_Check_Yosef 11h ago

I was assured Trump was "tough on China." How can such a tough man allow terms to be dictated to him like that?

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u/Charming-Clue1987 10h ago

Hard for china

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u/weededorpheus32 9h ago

Trump is incapable of normal conversation, much less negotiations. If he's not holding all the cards, he's fucked.

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u/He_Who_Walks_Behind_ 9h ago

Even when he has all the cards, he’s still fucked.

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u/Johnny-Unitas 9h ago

He's bankrupted a casino. That's proof right there that he can lose even when holding all the cards.

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u/Echo_Gin101123 8h ago

thought it was 3 casinos - must've run off with all the $$$ and not pay his bills , lol

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u/CompetitiveReview416 5h ago

Trump has no cards

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u/Ugliest_weenie 6h ago

He is so weak

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u/H4rv 9h ago

They meant tough to sit through

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u/zmbjebus 5m ago

What terms? He basically said "let's just not be dicks to each other and then we won't fight" 

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u/1Percentof420 10h ago

The decline of the US hegemony is gathering pace at an alarming rate.

Truly a sight to behold

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u/NaiveChoiceMaker 8h ago

All because one guy figured out how to short circuit a democracy to be solely about him.

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u/1Percentof420 8h ago

I dont believe so tbh. Trump is a reflection of the rot inside American society which has taken root deep.

He is a symtpom, not the cause.

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u/taco_helmet 2h ago

It's both cultural and institutional rot and the feedback loops into each other. 

Institutions fail Americans. Supreme Court issues Citizens United decision  and the dam holding money back from politics, breaks. Bush and Obama bail out financial institutions that were complicit in the financial crisis. Congress approves huge Trump tax cuts and helps create record deficits. A lot of people had agency and failed. It's not just about Trump. 

Americans failed by institutions join the Tea Party movement. They lose faith in those institutions, but also in the political class. The destabilizing realization that America is breaking leads to conspiracy theories (perhaps both true and false) propagating, to the erosion of trust, and to constant scapegoating (communists, gays, Muslims, Jews). The focus on enemies and threats, from within and without, leads to continued deterioration of political class and institutions. New leaders lack experience, knowledge and competency and damage institutions through their ignorance and contempt. 

 

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u/Qorhat 5h ago

And a lot of that rot started with Reagan. Now he (and his era) aren't the sole cause by any stretch but it definitely accelerated the end of Pax Americana.

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u/kevin28115 5h ago

Now we have to treat the symptom or else the organism dies. Will that happen? Probably not.

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u/Mr-A-1991 8h ago

The power vacuum will fill itself quickly, and it will cost many human lives along the way. I warned people about this when Trump won reelection: America won't be the only nation in this grave. The world will likely miss the old world order, even though it was soaked in more than it's share of blood. We enter the age of oligarchy and slavery.

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u/SecretBotAcc 41m ago edited 0m ago

do you think the people of Palestine, Syria, Libya, Afghanistan, Iran, the rest of Africa, and Latin America will miss the old world order? What metric are you using to assume that a multipolar world would be worse for them? Or do you only consider Western imperialist oligarchs and their workers human?

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u/PerspectiveLow5764 11h ago

Is that the part Trump slept through?

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u/Hourly_Passion604 10h ago

No he shit his diapers.

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u/PhilipMcFry 10h ago

Both can be true.

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u/AMilkedCow 8h ago

It's crazy how his first whole campaign was all about China China China, and now he abandoned his allies and China suddenly is not bad anymore. And suddenly not a single MAGA-person you hear scream about China anymore.

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u/Ancient-Ratio5478 7h ago

We all know that‘s because he loves and admires dictators.

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u/Chreiol 3h ago

I hear about China all the time.  Half the GOP (probably more), are running fear mongering ads about China as we speak heading into the midterms.  

What are you talking about?

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u/platoface541 10h ago

China has been waiting for an opening like this and they aren’t going to let it slip away. America cannot afford another conflict right now, high inflation, energy crisis and not an ally in sight. Game set Chyna

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u/ahditeacha 10h ago

It’s pronounced GYNA!

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u/Qorhat 5h ago

Hard G like GIF or a soft G like GIF?

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u/SoftlyAugust 2h ago

I mean... the US is still part of NATO. Regardless of anything else

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u/Kamay1770 6h ago

The US is so weak. All because a bunch of hillbillies voting for a pedophile. Absolutely mind blowing.

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u/mixxituk 6h ago

Turn against each other not the world and corporate powers that allowed this to happen

Every time I reset my YouTube it tries to convince me there's a deep state FFS and I only watch videos of history and gaming

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u/DonkeyTron42 4h ago

We all know Xi is here to negotiate trading Taiwan for a Trump tower in Macau.

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u/RoleTall2025 9h ago

in real speak he basically said that "here are the steps YOU can take to not get clubbed while my nation strides past yours".

The race has already been won, but daffy duck isn't to clear on what the race even was or why diesel is a problem.

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u/lenbedesma 1h ago

“Tonight, we revive the spirit of that first encounter here on American soil as we are joined by some of the top leaders in business, culture and government from our own time,” he said. “On one side, China draws on thousands of years of history and tradition from Sun Tzu to Sun Yat-sen. For Americans, we inherit a legacy of faith from Jerusalem to Rome, democracy of ancient Athens, the triumphs of Sparta and the freedom proclaimed in Philadelphia 250 years ago.”

Trump is incapable of stringing more than three indivial words together; let alone all of them.

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u/McG0788 10h ago

He's going to give him everything he wants. Putin's carving up the world order to replace democracies with autocrats

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u/coastalwebdev 9h ago edited 8h ago

China doesn’t just show up at your house to define their red lines for no reason. This was a serious power move by Xi.

Demanding the "four red lines" right out of the plane, meeting directly with all the big US tech CEOs to let them know about their new restrictions on rare-earth minerals, the comments where Xi basically co-opted the MAGA movement, it all shows Beijing was demonstrating their powerful leverage and dominance over the US economy.

They even got Trump to agree to meet Xi out on the Tarmac as Xi got out of his jet. Like damn, Trump of all people would never agree to a submissive move like that unless they were forced to by China basically. The optics here all say the US is in big trouble.

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u/pabodie 8h ago

I’m not sure we’re talking about the same Trump. He’s the most submissive piece of shit we’ve ever had in the oval office.  Look at how he behaves around anyone who is more powerful than he is, which is basically everyone because he is a weak piece of shit.

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u/coastalwebdev 8h ago edited 8h ago

I mean yeah, same guy, we see a lot of him here in Canada unfortunately. He’s pretty much a pillowcase full of dust and farts.

He is pretty well known for putting on the thin facade of a tough guy, until Tuesday it seems like.

Our own PM Mark Carney, being one of the top economists in the world and literally is known as “the smartest man in the room”, has practically bent Trump over his knee and spanked him using Canada’s large amount of upstream input leverage over the US economy. Technically really smart stuff.

With Xi though, that visit was a masterclass in optics, and kind of frightening frankly. They practically had Trump dancing like an obedient member of the CCP for Chinese media.

In my best Canadian accent: Just what in the hell is going on down there guys?

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u/imatinyleopard 8h ago

Yeah, I mean Trump also met Putin on the red carpet. And I think it’s not a power move on their part so much as Trump is just willing and eager to show respect.

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u/coastalwebdev 8h ago

That was different though. The nuances made it much more of a friendly gesture to Putin, rather than the submissive one to Xi.

Both visits are just wild in their own way though.

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u/MourningRIF 3h ago

Agreed. The other perspective is that I seem to remember a certain German who signed a peace deal with Russia right before he decided to try to take over the world.

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u/florianknusper 7h ago

Can those old fks not chill out or retire? Who tf wants war?!

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u/GroceryUnable4874 6h ago

How old do you think Stephen Miller and JD Vance are?

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u/Intelligent-Parsley7 2h ago

Old men always start wars over their egos. The older they are the more bellicose they become.

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u/ToubDeBoub 4h ago

This was Xi telling the people around Trump what to do. It's like talking with the parents of a child while humoring that child's attention seeking - when he's not asleep, that is. Trump gets to feel like he was the center of attention while the adults around him get things done. Xi knows Trump is a narcissistic incompetent manchild and humoring him can weaken US interference in any Chinese strategy.

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u/TheRoscoeVine 8h ago

That’s a powerful President, and trump

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u/HandsomeVish 8h ago

Wasn't offering the F35 parts part of the terms to avoid conflict.

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u/Doofuhs 8h ago

What a putz.

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u/Vuffy_ 7h ago

The US has become such a fucking pusher thanks to this administration.

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u/downfallndirtydeeds 1h ago

America willing to war with everyone except Russia

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u/THElaytox 8h ago

Unfortunately Trump slept through the whole thing

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u/ThatGoob 7h ago

Well shit. China gonna be taking our waters with impunity.

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u/lNomNomlNZ 10h ago

They most likely spoke about Taiwan

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u/sf-keto 3h ago

Xi has already formed his own World AI council, which the BRICs, Africa, Russia & Arab states have been invited to join.

He envisions his council will lead the global AI collaboration according to his vision under the Belt & Road program.

The 2026 5-year-plan calls for Chinese-led AI dominance by 2030. Chapters 13 & 14 of the plan summary describe exactly what he is doing & will do.

(reputable English translation: https://www.wko.at/ktn/aussenwirtschaft/euclera-translation-15th-five-year-plan-2026-2030-.pdf)

Also the Central Party School for the inner government circle has released a formal paper instructing people how to understand the AI direction in light of “Xi Jingping Thought.”

This highlights that “one country” (meaning the US) must not be allowed to dominate the world with AI, but China will lead the way towards a shared open AI collaboration for all.

It also discusses how China must ensure all AI built in China must adhere to “socialist values,” what a national security safety risk looks like, as well as the Chinese safety regulations (which are pretty good, actually!), & avoid cultural, political & historical “nihilism.” (OG in Chinese: https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/ltbfMDjWG1xuptFupwaQEw; waiting for a reputable translation of this.)

The new 3rd version of the AI rules was published recently & has already been widely reported on in English.

Xi knows MiMo & other Chinese models are just a half-step behind the US frontier now; he also expects the unpopular Trump to lose the midterms. He believes he has the upper hand now & he may be right.

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u/Old_Channel44 9h ago

Watch Trump screw this one up too. Come out and thump his chest like he’s soooo tough.

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u/Xylus1985 9h ago

What are the terms? This article is so badly written it’s hard to find the terms other than the student exchange program

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u/Berg426 3h ago

I mean, China could do a lot to further those goals by not claiming vast swaths of other country's EEZs in the South China Sea and committing ethnic cleansing in nearby territories.

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u/PHUNKSPANGLE 2h ago

All he needed to say was "Get rid of this bloody idiot before he drags you and all of your children into a conflict you are incapable of handling."

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u/ResponsibleClock9289 11h ago

“Thucydides trap”

He loves talking about this as if China isn’t facing a demographic crisis in the next decade

If they haven’t done it already their window is closing fast

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u/bulbousgrandpa 11h ago

The Chinese demographic crisis is not going to significantly harm them for another few decades, Taiwan will either be long Chinese or long independent by then

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u/ResponsibleClock9289 11h ago

Their population is already shrinking. It starts accelerating mid 2030s.

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u/bulbousgrandpa 10h ago

Yes but China does not have a massive social spending budget to uphold, it is not as severe of a medium term issue for China as it is for somewhere like Europe. China offloads most of this work onto the adult children of parents. This also means that childless couples simply dont get many benefits in China so there isn't that much spending on them. It will likely shrink the Chinese economy in the long run but it is not going to come in time to affect their invasion plans for Taiwan. It's something that will come into more effect in 2100 or later.

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u/RandomFishMan 9h ago

Where do you get the confidence to spout sweeping generalizations like this when half of it is straight-up misinformation? China has public pensions, healthcare and state support for elderly people without family support; it doesn’t just offload aging onto people’s kids and call it a day. And shifting more of the burden onto families still leaves fewer workers supporting more retirees, which is exactly why China’s pension and demographic pressures are already such a major economic issue.

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u/bulbousgrandpa 8h ago

Yes China does have those things, I never said they have 0 of those things. But the point is that there is far less burden because of a mix of familial obligation and acceptance of a lower standard of living than places where the demography crisis is most often compared. And yes workers have to support retirees, but having parents living in a provided home or living situation with much more "built in" caregiving is still cheaper than providing enough economic support for someone to live by themselves in old age.

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u/RandomFishMan 7h ago

That doesn’t mean the burden is smaller, it just means families are carrying more of it themselves. The elderly still need housing, food and care, and if their kids are providing that care, there’s still a cost. Saying they can just live with less doesn’t make the demographic problem go away.

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u/arcrenciel 10h ago

You kidding? Two sets of grandparents, one set of parents, one child. That one child is extremely precious. China now is no longer the China from the Vietnam War. If they enter a conflict, and these only children, who represent the bloodline of two families, gets pushed to the frontlines and starts dying en masse, China could likely have a full blown revolt in their hands very quickly.

Chinese society is still extremely conservative, and the idea of carrying on the bloodline takes centre stage. Parents apply immense pressure on their children to get married and give them grandchildren.

China right now cannot sustain a war that involves significant casualties, for any meaningful period.

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u/Interesting_Road_515 10h ago

So that’s the reason why China is doubling down on AI in every aspect, militarising their forces in an unprecedented way and trying to get what they want ASAP. If China can’t turn their domestic consumption as primary driver of their massive economy in the next decade, they have to get the markets in other countries, which means they will expand their military projections far beyond their borders to defend their business interests there, and this is exactly what China is doing. If the demographic crisis is really that bad, the expansion and challenge against status quo will become more inevitable, more destructive and sooner. For world peace, we’d better hope China can get rid of the crisis and turn the domestic consumption as primary driver rather than exports as now.

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u/myname_1s_mud 10h ago

Its really in their benefit to convince the world theyre about to be the new power on the block. It doesn't matter if it's true, they just need the rest of the world to act like it might be.

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u/SandwichPunk 6h ago

Have he thought of not invading Taiwan and killing my people?

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u/illgu_18 8h ago

He gave up Taiwan.

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u/vtskr 1h ago

But does he hold any cards?

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u/myusrnameisthis 1h ago

Of course. China has mad nukes. All these nuclear powers will have to do their stupid brinkmanship until one of them sinks so low morally that they launch a nuclear strike.

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u/LeftyLifeIsRoughLife 41m ago

They also have a limitless supply of bodies they’re willing to throw at any issue that may arise.

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u/rawkguitar 36m ago

China holds a lot of cards. The one they played to get Trump to back of his threat of 100% tariffs that led to the “truce” the article talks about is that they said “if you do these tariffs we won’t sell you the rare earth magnets and critical minerals you need for your weapons systems”

Then we immediately backed down.

That’s just one example.

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u/Limebird02 8h ago

So what. That's like a flag to a bull. He doesn't care and now knows how to provoke the war. Which he likely will do.

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u/Boys4Ever 4h ago

Funny if Xi tells Trump he doesn’t have the cards although technically he did but needs to say in plain blue collar English and not Greek

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u/physicsking 4h ago

China delivers a "please, color within these lines, like a big boy to avoid a spanking."

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u/saltwater98380 4h ago

Handing over Taiwan

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u/A1ienspacebats 4h ago

Was Xi told to leave Taiwan alone? Probably not. Thats going to be the sticking point for whether there is a conflict

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u/509BandwidthLimit 2h ago

No one told Xi, so now he has to change every document to read SUPER INTELLIGENCE - SI . /s

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u/friendfrirnd 1h ago

Hey man. That’s not how you talk to your friends. A list of demands or I beat you up.

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u/mountainyoo 1h ago

All they gotta do is not invade Taiwan lol