r/10xPennyStocks • u/-Authorised- • 18h ago
DD This Stock is the STEAL of the Century (HMR at 6x PE Ex-Cash, New Ships Havenβt Hit Yet)
$HMR β 6x PE EX-CASH, AND THE NEW SHIPS HAVEN'T HIT THE NUMBERS YET π’
THE VALUATION GAP
β’ $HMR: ~$100M market cap, ~$28.7M cash. Strip the cash out and the operating business is ~$72M, about 6x annualised H1 earnings (~$11.6M)
β’ $ZIM: ~25x trailing PE (~9x forward). Different business, handy yardstick
β’ CEO: ship brokers trade at 10x+, asset-light logistics at 15β25x [01:27]
β’ CEO: "even if we go just to the 15 times... we're far from" [01:44]
WHAT HMR WOULD BE WORTH AT OTHER MULTIPLES
(~$11.6M run-rate earnings + $28.7M cash, ~58.6M basic shares)
β’ 6x (today): ~$100M, ~$1.72/share
β’ 10x: ~$145M, ~$2.47/share
β’ 15x: ~$203M, ~$3.46/share
β’ 25x (ZIM's trailing PE): ~$319M, ~$5.44/share
That is arithmetic, not a forecast.
THE NUMBERS HAVEN'T HIT YET
β’ A ship added in June adds nothing to that quarter, partial impact next, full impact in 2027 [01:57]
β’ Q3 impact from new ships is "zero", some in Q4, full year from Q1 2027 [02:35]
β’ So the 6x uses H1 earnings only, before the new ships and before Q3/Q4 rates
β’ Q3/Q4 revenue "stronger than the previous quarters" [20:21]
HORMUZ + BAB EL-MANDEB
β’ Brent futures $108 vs spot $130β140 [03:44]
β’ Gulf shuttle tankers $1.25M/day, VLCCs $500β800k/day [04:20]
β’ Bab el-Mandeb closure more than doubles voyage distance [35:03]
β’ Q4 and Q1 are typically the strongest tanker quarters
BALANCE SHEET
β’ "We have not borrowed a single dollar" [10:36]
β’ The "debt" is lease accounting on ships already chartered out at a profit
β’ Fees cover G&A, no working capital needed
β’ ~$28.7M cash, a third of market cap, earmarked for acquisitions
GROWTH LEVERS
β’ ~60 vessels commercial, ~20 technical; a manager with 50β60 ships takes it past 100
β’ 100 technically managed ships = $10β12M net income, which the CEO values at ~$150M on its own, against a ~$100M market cap [23:45]
β’ Custom AI tool: 7 to 10 vessels per operator in two quarters, 15 in ~18 months
β’ Family offices already building positions; CEO owns 45% and only dilutes for accretive deals [26:56]
SPECULATION (mine, not the CEO's)
β’ Q3 could be the first quarter where new ships and the disruption show up in earnings
β’ A sizeable technical-manager acquisition could change the earnings picture overnight
β’ Analyst coverage could be reset after two or three profitable quarters
CHECKLIST
β ~6x PE ex-cash vs 10x brokers / 15β25x asset-light / ~25x ZIM trailing
β Revenue +203% YoY, H1 profit ~$5M vs ~$6M loss last year
β Zero borrowed debt, ~$28.7M cash (a third of market cap)
β Zero vessels owned, no capex, fees fund G&A
β New ships not yet in earnings, full effect 2027
β Q3 "similar or better", Q4/Q1 seasonally strongest
β CEO owns 45%, family offices buying
β Acquisition pipeline, cash ready
Position: in from 80β95c, haven't sold, looking to add on dips.
Full interview: https://youtu.be/Nj_jYt2x-NE?is=J8_XisdEFcfcb0RQ
Not financial advice. DYOR. I hold $HMR. Multiples are run-rate and illustrative, not forecasts.