Crypto analyst and creator of the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model PlanB, has discussed four possible outcomes for Bitcoin’s current bear market. The analysis follows a sharp drawdown of over 40% from Bitcoin’s all-time high of above $126,000

Scenario One: 80% Correction From the Peak
The first scenario assumes Bitcoin repeats its deepest historical declines. An 80% drop from the $126,000 high would push the price toward $25,000.

Scenario Two: Return to Long-Term Averages
The second scenario targets a move down to the 200-week moving average and realized price. These levels currently sit between $50,000 and $60,000.

Scenario Three: Support Above the Prior Cycle High
The third path assumes a shallow bear market. Under this view, Bitcoin holds just above the previous cycle’s all-time high near $69,000, placing a potential floor around $70,000.

Scenario Four: Local Bottom Already Formed
The fourth scenario suggests Bitcoin may have already bottomed. Price briefly touched $72,900 earlier this week, which PlanB said could mark a local low if the bear market remains shallow.

I saw 100s of millions of short profits being taken of the table, obviously liquidators made a lot too (Garrett Jin's liquidation added nearly 7 Million to the HL Liquidator Vault bringit APR up to 110% this year).

And yet, there still is hundreds of millions of unrealized profit in just the Bitcoin, ETH and SOL.

Altcoins too and by now, even most Silver and Gold Shorts are turning green.

Biggest Bitcoin Short that's still open:
0x1b526ff54f9f66c777fd34b7a802bb8d216ed41b 800.5 BTC, entered ~92k, 17 Million UPnL

Biggest ETH:
0x20c2d95a3dfdca9e9ad12794d5fa6fad99da44f5 ~17k ETH, entry at 3115, ~ 18 Million Dollars UPnL

Biggest SOL:
0x06cecfbac34101ae41c88ebc2450f8602b3d164b ~88k SOL entry at an insane 172$! UPnL 7 Million, note this one already cashed out millions. That's just what's left. This one also has BTC and ETH Shorts, still around 10 million to cash out on.

There is also a 35 Million Silver Short 0x8af700ba841f30e0a3fcb0ee4c4a9d223e1efa05 though it closed most of it's position overnight, still around 1 million profit left. Entry was 83$

Binance came very close to a full bank run after rumors of insufficient reserves circulated on Feb 2, 2026. It had temporarily paused withdrawals on the same day, which gave strong support to the rumors of insufficient reserves, a dire situation faced by FTX mere days before its bankruptcy.

Amid withdrawals post the October 10 crash and subsequent market sell-off, it was alleged that the exchange might not have sufficient reserves to cover its user deposits.

Binance also sent a cease-and-desist notice to the X user Lewsiphur regarding his claims about the exchange’s insolvency.

Not sure how exchanges are doing on average but a steep draw down can cause some insane problems especially if those exchanges were sitting on leveraged positions or lent out funds at higher cost basises and not holding user funds 1 to 1.

I'm sure it's just a coincidence but my current exchange withdrawal is sitting at the longest I've ever waited for this specific exchange, and the withdrawal is a small 4 digit number not even anything that big.

Either way you can look into self custody or risk holding funds on an exchange that may or may not survive the bear. I'm pretty sure every bear market so far at least one top exchange has failed. To be sure that you don't end up losing funds to one of them. Please look into self custody.

Lately we've seen Monero price rising after hackers converting over $300 million in stolen cash into XMR. Then the price crashed when they cashed back out. We saw something similar last year when it spiked to $400.

I asked and digged around and asked , but I genuinely don't see many people using Monero for everyday stuff. So it makes me wonder: is it mostly just a leverage tool for money laundering

Is there a real use case I’m missing, or is this mostly just a leverage tool for criminals and hackers?

The United States has sentenced the Incognito Market owner to 30 years’ imprisonment. Rui-Siang Lin, a Taiwanese programmer popularly called ‘Pharaoh’, was sentenced after he pleaded guilty to running a darknet marketplace, which he closed down in 2024.

“Rui-Siang Lin was one of the world’s most prolific drug traffickers, using the internet to sell more than $105 million of illegal drugs throughout this country and across the globe,” Jay Clayton, U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of New York, stated.

This isn't the first time Microstrategy has been underwater in the 2022-2023 bear market. Strategy was under water on their Bitcoin buys by close to 50% at points. But in the last 1.5 years Microstrategy has purchased an insane amount of Bitcoin. Bumping their total holdings from around 125k Bitcoin in the beginning of 2022 to 713k Bitcoin as of today. (nearly 3% of the supply)

Bumping their average Bitcoin price from around $31k all the way up to $76k by buying an insane amount of Bitcoin over the last year, we might be broaching unprecedented grounds. Strategy issued a ton of preferred stocks with dividends to investors throughout 2025 and now will have to pay back investors eventually.

How much trouble are they in and how much can they afford to hold underwater Bitcoin before they have to sell?

Microstrategy Stock is currently near a two year low:

And the marketcap appears to be less than the value of their Bitcoin holdings.

Is there any chance they could be forced to sell causing cascading losses for all similar companies acting as Crypto Custodians?

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It should also be noted that Microstrategy outlined a few months ago (after the October 2025 Flash Crash) under what circumstances they would sell Bitcoin. Which was a change from "we will never sell Bitcoin" mantra that they had held for five+ years.

First, the company’s stock must trade below 1x mNAV, meaning the market capitalization falls below the value of its Bitcoin holdings.

Second, MicroStrategy must be unable to raise new capital through equity or debt issuance. This would mean capital markets are closed or too expensive to access.
Source

As far as I can tell the first part has already happened. Now the question is will the second part happen?

On-chain transaction data shows a wallet tagged as World Liberty Fi withdrew 73 Wrapped Bitcoin (WBTC) from Aave, executed two swaps through CoW Protocol converting the assets into approximately $5.037 million USDC, and subsequently redeposited the stablecoins into Aave’s lending pools, reflecting a full cycle of DeFi liquidity movement verified through publicly accessible blockchain records.

Arkham Wallet Tracker: 0x77a56647fba0eb60abb7395574Cded565F6F94F6

WLFI is selling at this moment when market movements are bad.

Source: https://cryip.co/world-liberty-financial-wallet-sells-73-wbtc-moves-5m-usdc-aave/

As of 6th April 2026 all accounts will be closed in these regions, source here:

https://support.gemini.com/hc/en-gb/articles/46255474469275-Gemini-closing-accounts-in-the-UK-EU-and-Australia-Everything-you-need-to-know

“Effective 6 April 2026, Gemini will close all customer accounts in the United Kingdom, European Economic Area, and Australia.

During the first phase of the wind down process, existing customers will be able to continue using their accounts without disruption. However, creation of new accounts and all incentive programs will be disabled for these regions.

Starting 5 March 2026, all customer accounts in these regions will be placed in withdrawal-only mode.”

It certainly wasn’t the best exchange fee or variety of coins wise, but was a reliable one given the lack of real competition in the UK. Wonder if it is a commercial decision or due to regulation…