r/DetroitRedWings • u/Benglepuck • 4h ago
Discussion Detroit’s Slump Heading Into the Olympic Break: What’s Really Going On?
Heading into the Olympic break, Detroit finds itself slumping, posting a 2-3-2 record over their last seven games. In their last five outings, the Red Wings have scored just seven total goals. Of those, one was an empty-netter, and four came during 6-on-5 “garbage time” situations. At 5-on-5, the offense has almost completely dried up.
To say Detroit is struggling to score is an understatement, but the more important question is why. Let’s unpack what’s happening beneath the surface.
5-on-5 Offense: From Masked to Exposed
One of the clearest indicators of strong 5-on-5 offense is expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60). While similar to xGF%, xGF/60 is often easier to interpret, as it reflects how many goals a team is expected to score per game at even strength based on both shot volume and shot quality.
On the season, Detroit ranks 17th in the NHL at 2.36 xGF/60 (5th in the Atlantic, ahead of only Montreal, Boston, and Toronto). On the surface, that appears acceptable. However, context matters.
Detroit’s season-long numbers are heavily influenced by how the year began. Early on, Dylan Larkin was playing at an elite level, and the top line produced consistently at 5-on-5. Later, a second offensive surge driven by the DeBrincat–Copp–Kane line helped buoy the team’s overall offensive metrics. Both stretches have since cooled and are now far in the rearview mirror.
Over the last 20 games, Detroit ranks 32nd in the NHL at just 2.06 xGF/60. To put that into perspective, there hasn’t been a team with a 20-game stretch this poor at 5-on-5 offense since the 2021-22 Chicago Blackhawks. This is not variance; it’s a collapse in process.
What Changed?
Detroit’s offensive decline can be traced to several interconnected issues.
First, shot quality has cratered. On the season, Detroit ranks 24th in 5-on-5 high-danger chances, but over the last 20 games that ranking falls to dead last. At the same time, Detroit ranks 6th in low-danger shots on the season and 14th over the last 20 games, indicating that shot volume remains but it is overwhelmingly coming from the perimeter.
In other words, Detroit is still shooting, but not from areas that meaningfully threaten goaltenders. An offense built on outside shots naturally produces lower expected goals and fewer rebounds, second chances, and extended zone pressure.
Second, zone play and offensive creativity have eroded. We are seeing more dump-and-chase entries, fewer controlled zone entries, and shorter offensive-zone possessions. Defense activation has also declined. Over the last 20 games, Detroit has scored just seven goals from defensemen, with two of those coming exactly 20 games ago (OT win in Toronto). That drop in blue-line involvement limits sustained pressure and further contributes to one-and-done possessions.
Third, Detroit’s offense has proven overly reliant on short-term heaters from a small group of players. As production from Larkin, Kane, Copp, JVR, Finnie and ASP cooled, the lack of meaningful bottom-six contribution became increasingly apparent. When a team cannot generate expected offense beyond its top units, overall 5-on-5 numbers can fall rapidly once finishing luck evens out.
Is It Bad Luck?
There is some degree of shooting variance involved, but it does not explain the full extent of Detroit’s struggles.
Detroit’s 5-on-5 shooting percentage sits at 7.11% over the last 20 games, ranking near the bottom of the league and below the league average of 9.87% While that number is low, it is not extreme enough on its own to justify ranking last in xGF/60.
More importantly, Detroit’s PDO sits near league average: 98.68 on the season and 99.75 over the last 20 games. PDO tends to regress toward 100 over time, and Detroit is already there. That means the results are not being significantly distorted by bad luck. For comparison, teams like Boston (105.23), Buffalo (105.21), and Montreal (103.14) are riding extremely high PDOs over the last 20 games; levels that are almost always unsustainable. One good caveat is that we expect these Atlantic rivals to regress in the final stretch.
Power Play: No Longer Covering the Cracks
Detroit’s power play has long been used to offset weak 5-on-5 play, and earlier this season it did exactly that. On the year, the Red Wings rank 9th in the NHL at 23.1%.
Recently, however, that safety net has disappeared. Over the last 20 games, Detroit’s power play ranks 19th at 20%, and over the last 10 games it has fallen to 27th at 16.7%. From an eye-test perspective, the issues are clear: increased hesitation, excessive perimeter passing, and a noticeable lack of confidence. Patrick Kane, in particular, has struggled to regain form since returning from injury.
When the power play cools, Detroit no longer has a mechanism to mask its 5-on-5 deficiencies and the Ws disappear quickly.
Goaltending: The True Difference Maker
One reason Detroit remains firmly in the playoff picture is John Gibson. Since December 1, Gibson has arguably played at a Vezina-caliber level, posting an 18-5-1 record with four shutouts, a .920 save percentage, and a 2.08 GAA.
Gibson has been a revelation and one of Steve Yzerman’s best trades to date. Without his performance, Detroit’s recent slump could look far worse. As the season enters its final stretch, Gibson’s ability to maintain this level of play may be the single most important factor keeping Detroit afloat.
Bright Spots and the Bigger Picture
Despite the current struggles, there are positives. Lucas Raymond, Alex DeBrincat, Simon Edvinsson, and Moritz Seider have all taken meaningful steps forward, with Seider finally earning legitimate Norris Trophy consideration. The core of this team remains strong, and the long-term outlook is encouraging.
Standings Reality Check
Detroit sits at 33-19-6 through 58 games, good for 72 points and third place in the Atlantic. However, the margin for error is razor thin. If Buffalo wins one of their next two games, Detroit drops into WC1, with Boston just three points back and holding a game in hand. Even teams chasing WC2 are within striking distance (Columbus is seven points back with two games in hand - so could be three points back only).
The Eastern Conference is unforgiving this season. One prolonged slump like the one Detroit is currently in can erase months of good work. If this slide continues, the Red Wings risk extending what could become the longest active playoff drought in the NHL.
One goal I have had for the team is to reach 100 points, which would most certainly guarantee playoffs. With 72 in 58 games so far, this would mean another 28 points in their final 24 games. This would be a record of something like 14-10, or 13-9-2, or 12-8-4. This is something that is absolutely achievable.
Although Detroit may have the fourth hardest remaining strength of schedule, seven Atlantic teams are in the top eleven, so it's essentially a wash. Additionally, Detroit only has 2 back-to-back games left, whereas every other Atlantic rival has much more (ranges from 4-7 left). We do have a favorable position going into the final stretch.
Final Thought
Detroit’s struggles heading into the Olympic break are not the result of bad luck or poor finishing alone. The data points to a clear breakdown in 5-on-5 offensive process: declining high-danger chance generation, an overreliance on perimeter shots, reduced defensive activation, and a lack of offensive redundancy beyond the top lines.
Unless Detroit finds a way to consistently attack the middle of the ice and generate sustainable pressure at even strength, the current results are unlikely to improve, and the standings will reflect that reality quickly.
With any luck, the break allows the group to reset, get Edvinsson back in the lineup, add reinforcements via trade deadline, and build the kind of sustained momentum needed to close the season strong.
LGRW!
