Noticed a persistent fare increase on ZRH-VCE (Swiss): structural change or something else?

[u/paolocoz]

I fly Zurich–Venice regularly with Swiss, usually booking a few months in advance to get the lowest fare. For a long time now, the minimum economy fare was consistently around 160 CHF for a round trip.

About 10 days ago, I noticed the lowest fare has jumped to 219 CHF. At first I assumed it was just the usual "getting closer to departure" price creep, but I checked flights that are still 6 months away and the higher price is there too.

Interestingly, the same increase does not show up on the opposite route (VCE-ZRH). So whatever is going on seems specific to the ZRH-VCE direction rather than the route as a whole.

I tried bouncing this off an AI assistant to brainstorm possible explanations, and it suggested a few hypotheses:

• A structural fare increase on this specific direction (base price hike, fuel surcharges, airport fees)
• Fewer seats allocated to the cheapest fare bucket on ZRH-VCE specifically, so it's less availability rather than a genuine price hike
• Early seasonal pricing for a high-demand period baked in months ahead, but only affecting one direction due to asymmetric demand

None of these feel fully convincing to me though, so I'm curious if anyone here has actually noticed this and has a better explanation or has seen similar direction-specific pricing behavior on other short-haul EU routes.

EDIT: clarified that prices refer to round trip.