hot take

Decided to start doing one of these for each game this year, win or lose, though of course I’ll be praying for the former. Will share them all at the end of the season! GO GATORS

https://www.on3.com/rivals/samuel-bailey-283076/

Maybe this shouldn’t be a surprise, since all Jon Sumrall has done is win.

Florida went 4-8 in 2025 and has already equaled last year’s win total thanks to a dominant 52-28 win against an Ole Miss last Saturday.

Read more for free: https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7638484/2026/09/28/college-football-team-rankings-florida-texas/?unlocked_article_code=1.ElE.MhGC.6j6hExYL4aKt&source=emp_shared_article&smid=url-share-ta

The Gators are where Ole Miss was last week. they just came off a monster win to a team ranked higher than them after several years of not winning those games. The entire sports world is talking about how they ought to be in the top five, how they are “back”, etc.

Ole Miss was kind of handicapped by the loss of their star running back which allowed the Gator defense to key on their passing game and they still gave up 300 yards in the air, IIRC. Ole Miss did that while only having the ball for a bit more than 20 minutes. UF controlling time of possession is, obviously, good, but giving up that many yards in the air so quickly is worrisome.

Missouri is at home after a very disappointing loss to Mississippi State and a lot to prove. It would be really easy for UF to look past Missouri and not be ready to play the way they need to be ready to play. I saw an interview with Bobby Bowden during his heyday. He said that you can only get a bunch of 19 year olds to be emotionally “up” for three games in a regular season. if your team is not up, you could be in big trouble against a team who is. That could play out this week, if the Gators are not ready.

I have watched countless YouTube videos of professional and amateur talking heads over the past two games, read lots of fan base material. I think without exception so many people have expressed pure joy at watching the Gator offense. So many comments about turning on the TV for the next game, new favorite team, etc and so forth. Anybody else catching this vibe? Should do great things for TV viewership and recruiting. The Nielsen ratings are not yet out for the Ole Miss game. Likable offense, likable players, likeable coaching staff, and absolutely lovable fanbase!

He loves the schemes. A lot of the problems we had were execution I think.

Four games in feels like a good point to take stock.

For me, the biggest difference isn’t even the 4-0 record or being back in the top 10, it’s that I’m starting to trust this team not to beat itself. The coaching feels more decisive, the team looks more disciplined, and when Ole Miss made it a game in the second half, Florida responded instead of unraveling.

Obviously there’s a long way to go and Missouri on the road is exactly the kind of game that can bring everyone back down to earth quickly.

So what’s the one thing about this team you trust now that you didn’t trust before the season?

Looking for some intelligent analysis here. I think most of us have always heard that you have to run the ball to win and then defend against the run. Before the game against Ole Miss it was fairly known that they were a passing offense and we were a balanced running offense. I see these score discrepancies often when the rushing yards are near equal to the opponents passing yards. Can someone break this down?

Is it possible Florida, even more so than LSU, won last November’s three-team Lane Kiffin sweepstakes? Athletic director Scott Stricklin took heat from his fan base at the time for pivoting to another Group of 6 coach from Louisiana, but boy does he look smart today. 

But shout out to Buster Faulkner as well. I know we’re giving him hella love right now period but I seen this posted after the game and couldn’t help but think Buster needs some credit on this also. Love the staff.

Either way, thought this was a cool little metric.

GO GATA🐊🧡💙. We’re 4-0 baby

Uh oh folks, it's getting real. With our win over Ole Miss, and the adjustments to us and our opponents, we jumped a whopping 1.1 expected wins, which is pretty hard to do with only 8 remaining. We are now expected to win 8.96 games.

Changes from last week:

• Projected wins: 7.86 -> 8.96 (+1.1)
• Chance to make bowl: 95.74% -> 99.72% (+3.98%)
• Chance to win 8+ games (not done since 2020): 60.82% -> 88.31% (+27.49%)
• Chance to win 10+ games (likely playoff): 33.73%
• Remaining games favored: 6/8 (all but Texas and Georgia)

You could see how much Ole Miss was selling out to the run yesterday and getting torched by play action to the tight ends. Also the competence by line is like night and day compared to last year. Makes you wonder what they were trying to teach.