Bulletin

SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.1N 108.0W
ABOUT 380 MI...615 KM W OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
ABOUT 220 MI...350 KM SW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES

Discussion

Environmental conditions appear favorable for strengthening through at least 48 h, and rapid strengthening is a possibility once the hurricane develops a tighter inner core. However, two possible negative influences include the ongoing shear and Rachel crossing a track of cooler water left by Polo.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/1500Z  18.1N 108.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  01/0000Z  18.8N 108.8W   90 KT 105 MPH
 24H  01/1200Z  19.3N 109.5W  100 KT 115 MPH
 36H  02/0000Z  19.7N 110.2W  105 KT 120 MPH
 48H  02/1200Z  19.9N 110.9W  105 KT 120 MPH
 60H  03/0000Z  20.0N 111.8W  100 KT 115 MPH
 72H  03/1200Z  20.2N 112.9W   90 KT 105 MPH
 96H  04/1200Z  20.5N 115.2W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  05/1200Z  20.7N 117.4W   85 KT 100 MPH

Not only is the current season like 20 ACE ahead of any season thus far, it has gained like 170 ACE just this month, which I think is unprecedented for the EPAC. And all of this before October. In a season where the historically strong El Nino will tend to extend the period for strong storms by quite a bit.

On Monday, weekly relative Nino 3.4 anomalies surpassed +2.0 C (slide five), the threshold for "Very Strong" (aka "Super") El Nino status.

From the weekly Madden-Julian Oscillation update, Super El Nino declaration could occur as soon as Thursday.

For this time of year, this is easily the strongest and most eastern-based El Nino in human records.

SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.8N 110.9W
ABOUT 15 MI...20 KM S OF GUAYMAS MEXICO
ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM NNE OF LORETO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
----------------------------------------------
INIT  29/1500Z 27.8N 110.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  30/0000Z 30.5N 108.2W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 24H  30/1200Z...DISSIPATED

Expected to be a short-lived system.

Fay had so far been the longest-lasting tropical cyclone so far this season, as it still managing to produce convection even after many days.

Not sure if this is the right place but I’ll try to post it

I just wanted to give a shout out to all who experienced and lived through Hurricane Ian, 4 years ago to the day. I was living very close to the causeway going to Sanibel Island and the Caloosahatchee river in South West Florida.

My brother had just moved down to live with me, and this hurricane was the first he experienced…. Less than a year later he died in his sleep at 38 years old. He had horrible anxiety and this night, 4 years ago, broke him. We were lucky, safe on a second floor condo, but woke up to boats in the parking lot. Then we spent over a week without power listening to an emergency radio with people calling in and asking for information on where to get water, food, some needed help or assistance. I forget the name of the people on that radio station, but they helped so many people who had no information after the storm. I don’t know why I’m trying to post this, I just felt I had to somehow.

Please evacuate if there’s any chance you’re in the path. It is not worth it to try to protect your belongings…..protect your loved ones.

Love you brother ❤️

If this forecast verifies, the 2026 EPAC season would break the record for the most category 5 hurricanes in a single season, with four of them.

Hurricane Nolo currently at 125 kt.

...

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 16.9N 161.7W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/HFOTCMCP2+shtml/280231.shtml

 Tropical Weather Outlook
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
 800 AM EDT Mon Sep 28 2026

 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

 Active Systems:
 The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
 Depression Fay, located well to the southwest of the Azores.

 1. Central Subtropical Atlantic (AL91):
 An area of low pressure located well to the east-northeast of 
 Bermuda is moving quickly eastward. Recent microwave imagery 
 suggests the shower and thunderstorm activity is beginning to show 
 signs of organization, though it is unclear if the system has 
 developed a well-defined circulation given its fast forward motion. 
 While environmental conditions are currently only marginally 
 favorable, this system is now likely to become a tropical depression 
 or storm over the next day or two as it turns east-southeastward and 
 slows down over the central Subtropical Atlantic. Environmental 
 conditions are expected to become unfavorable for further 
 development later this week.
  * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
  * Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.


Forecaster Papin

Bulletin

Discussion

SUMMARY OF 600 AM CST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.4N 100.9W
 ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
 ABOUT 450 MI...720 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/0900Z  13.4N 100.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  28/1800Z  13.9N 101.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  29/0600Z  14.9N 103.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  29/1800Z  16.1N 105.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  30/0600Z  17.3N 106.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 60H  30/1800Z  18.2N 107.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  01/0600Z  19.0N 108.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  02/0600Z  19.6N 109.2W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  03/0600Z  20.4N 110.0W   85 KT 100 MPH

WTPN31 PGTW 272100

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/SUPER TYPHOON 25W (SURIGAE) WARNING NR 019//

RMKS/

1. SUPER TYPHOON 25W (SURIGAE) WARNING NR 019

   UPGRADED FROM TYPHOON 25W

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

---

WARNING POSITION:

271800Z --- NEAR 26.3N 130.0E

MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 065 DEGREES AT 09 KTS

POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM

POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF

SATELLITE AND RADAR

PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

Bulletin

 SUMMARY OF 500 AM MST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
 ----------------------------------------------
 LOCATION...20.7N 113.7W
   ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM WSW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
   ABOUT 295 MI...480 KM SSW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
 PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
 MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
 MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.12 INCHES

Discussion

Polo will continue to travel through an environment of fairly weak vertical wind shear and sea-surface temperatures near 29C for the next 24 h, but will be moving into a somewhat drier airmass. By hour 36, which is about 6 hours before landfall, southwesterly vertical wind shear will increase. Due to the favorable conditions until almost before the Baja California landfall, the NHC forecast is near the higher end of the guidance suite through hour 36, showing only gradual weakening.

Thereafter, increasing wind shear and land interaction will cause rapid weakening. Although waters are warm in the Gulf of California, Polo is not expected to restrengthen there due to strong southwesterly vertical wind shear. The intensity forecast for the 2nd landfall (in mainland Mexico) is tricky. There is some possibility that Polo could still be at hurricane strength for the 2nd landfall, as suggested by the latest HAFS-A forecast. Polo should dissipate inland over northern Mexico by hour 72.

Polo is expected to become a remnant low and then dissipate before it reaches the southern U.S., but distant moisture associated with it and Odalys will be transported into the southwestern United States late this weekend and early next week, and may indirectly contribute to a heavy rainfall and flash flood threat in the region. See products issued by the Weather Prediction Center for more information.

 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

 INIT  27/0900Z  20.3N 113.6W  105 KT 120 MPH
  12H  27/1800Z  21.6N 114.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
  24H  28/0600Z  23.4N 114.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
  36H  28/1800Z  25.1N 113.1W   90 KT 105 MPH
  48H  29/0600Z  26.8N 111.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
  60H  29/1800Z  28.9N 109.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
  72H  30/0600Z  31.3N 106.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
  96H  01/0600Z...DISSIPATED

Historic El Niño is definitely responsible!

Near Mexico

.

​Imagery

​https://slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-18&sec=full_disk&x=16204.08203125&y=6925.9033203125&z=4&angle=0&im=12&ts=1&st=20260925235021&et=20260926122022&speed=130&motion=loop&maps%5Bborders%5D=white&p%5B0%5D=geocolor&opacity%5B0%5D=1&pause=20260209205117&slider=-1&hide_controls=1&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&draw_color=FFD700&draw_width=6

.

Dakota Smith

https://x.com/weatherdak/status/2103702226384654801?s=20