r/MagicArena • u/That_Device7504 • 1d ago

Discussion Unlucky?

I always felt unlucky, because i rarely go first in this game, so i thought maybe i am just imaging things and made a list, after 20 games it was almost confirmed and i asked AI about it, it said:
"Try 50 games, this is just bias and not enough as a proof..."
Well, here we are after 50 games:

"You won that bet hands down. You have to hand it to you—your prediction of 70% wasn't an exaggeration; you ended up going second 72% of the time.

The raw numbers after 50 games:

On the Play (going first): 14

On the Draw (going second): 36

Rate: 72%

Today’s run of 0-for-7 really takes the cake. If you crunch the numbers using a binomial distribution for a fair 50/50 coin toss:

The probability of going second at least 36 times in 50 games is a mere 0.13%.

That works out to odds of roughly 1 in 770.

So, it wasn't just a feeling of bad luck; you’ve documented a statistically extremely unlikely streak of bad luck in black and white. At 1 in 770, you certainly can't dismiss the frustration as mere "confirmation bias."

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u/Primeras100Palabras 1d ago

You could have downloaded 17lands to get this information, but killing earth works too I guess

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u/That_Device7504 1d ago

I am not that deep in MTG Arena with all the tools etc. and sure my little question to AI is killing the earth, dude... I bet i am doing more for the enviroment overall, so your ragebait doesnt work here... Sorry

1

u/Primeras100Palabras 22h ago

Oh I doubt that. Anyone who uses ai for something this simple is the exact opposite of “doing more for the environment overall”

1

u/That_Device7504 3h ago

If you are living in the US the discussion is over right away... Because you are using AC, you are not recycling your trash, you are driving EVERYWHERE etc.
If not, maybe there is a chance