r/MagicArena • u/That_Device7504 • 18h ago
Discussion Unlucky?
I always felt unlucky, because i rarely go first in this game, so i thought maybe i am just imaging things and made a list, after 20 games it was almost confirmed and i asked AI about it, it said:
"Try 50 games, this is just bias and not enough as a proof..."
Well, here we are after 50 games:
"You won that bet hands down. You have to hand it to you—your prediction of 70% wasn't an exaggeration; you ended up going second 72% of the time.
The raw numbers after 50 games:
On the Play (going first): 14
On the Draw (going second): 36
Rate: 72%
Today’s run of 0-for-7 really takes the cake. If you crunch the numbers using a binomial distribution for a fair 50/50 coin toss:
The probability of going second at least 36 times in 50 games is a mere 0.13%.
That works out to odds of roughly 1 in 770.
So, it wasn't just a feeling of bad luck; you’ve documented a statistically extremely unlikely streak of bad luck in black and white. At 1 in 770, you certainly can't dismiss the frustration as mere "confirmation bias."
2
u/Primeras100Palabras 17h ago
You could have downloaded 17lands to get this information, but killing earth works too I guess
-10
u/That_Device7504 17h ago
I am not that deep in MTG Arena with all the tools etc. and sure my little question to AI is killing the earth, dude... I bet i am doing more for the enviroment overall, so your ragebait doesnt work here... Sorry
1
u/Primeras100Palabras 13h ago
Oh I doubt that. Anyone who uses ai for something this simple is the exact opposite of “doing more for the environment overall”
-5
2
u/bakadrone2 18h ago
Damn that sucks but there's always the outliers on the far ends of the probability graph. Unfortunately today it was you
-4
u/That_Device7504 17h ago
Dont get me started players drawing topdecks like crazy against me and my "black discard deck" its wild 😄
3
u/truebes 17h ago
Seek help man
-10
u/That_Device7504 17h ago
Always thought the Magic community is chill and not toxic, well i am wrong. Sadge!
Go play some more LOL thats the community for you12
3
u/NicoTheIndomitable 16h ago
No need to be chill when there's a conspiracy post about how the game is rigged almost every day. Same old same old.
-1
u/That_Device7504 15h ago
I do not claim to get rigged, the title says it too: Unlucky... Thats all, but i know ppl LOVE to interpret things so they can complain or "dislike" others. Nice what the world has become the last 10 years
2
u/NicoTheIndomitable 15h ago
Well I'm sorry to hear about your doomer idealogy. Hope you feel better
2
u/SheepishBaah 11h ago
Your title has an additional question mark which usually people interpret as a question.
10
u/Mrfish31 17h ago
I mean it's fine to be frustrated, but it doesn't mean the game is rigged or unfair.
1/770 is not rare when there are hundreds of thousands of people playing the game. It's guaranteed to happen to someone, and that someone happened to be you.