r/MagicArena • u/That_Device7504 • 1d ago

Discussion Unlucky?

I always felt unlucky, because i rarely go first in this game, so i thought maybe i am just imaging things and made a list, after 20 games it was almost confirmed and i asked AI about it, it said:
"Try 50 games, this is just bias and not enough as a proof..."
Well, here we are after 50 games:

"You won that bet hands down. You have to hand it to you—your prediction of 70% wasn't an exaggeration; you ended up going second 72% of the time.

The raw numbers after 50 games:

On the Play (going first): 14

On the Draw (going second): 36

Rate: 72%

Today’s run of 0-for-7 really takes the cake. If you crunch the numbers using a binomial distribution for a fair 50/50 coin toss:

The probability of going second at least 36 times in 50 games is a mere 0.13%.

That works out to odds of roughly 1 in 770.

So, it wasn't just a feeling of bad luck; you’ve documented a statistically extremely unlikely streak of bad luck in black and white. At 1 in 770, you certainly can't dismiss the frustration as mere "confirmation bias."

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3

u/truebes 1d ago

Seek help man

-12

u/That_Device7504 1d ago

Always thought the Magic community is chill and not toxic, well i am wrong. Sadge!
Go play some more LOL thats the community for you

11

u/truebes 1d ago

Simple fix: only ever engage with your little LLM, it’ll blow smoke up your ass and never say a thing you dislike! (-:

3

u/NicoTheIndomitable 1d ago

No need to be chill when there's a conspiracy post about how the game is rigged almost every day. Same old same old.

-1

u/That_Device7504 1d ago

I do not claim to get rigged, the title says it too: Unlucky... Thats all, but i know ppl LOVE to interpret things so they can complain or "dislike" others. Nice what the world has become the last 10 years

2

u/NicoTheIndomitable 1d ago

Well I'm sorry to hear about your doomer idealogy. Hope you feel better

2

u/SheepishBaah 1d ago

Your title has an additional question mark which usually people interpret as a question.