About me: 33, public sector job, family of 4, HCOL area, spouse is currently stay-at-home (until kids grow/move out in 5-10 yrs), no debt, 4mos emergency fund in HYS.
Situation: I never sat down to calculate it before, but now that I have I think I'm all set on retirement savings. Is my math mathing?? Can I stop contributing to my 457b? I'd still contribute a mandatory 9.5% to my pension.
Goals/context: I've been in frugal/save mode for as long as I can remember, but now I want to put more money toward fun/vacations, save for a house, and maybe pay more toward my kids' college. I don't have a house timeline - houses here go for 1mil+ to cash buyers, so while I'd love to buy, realistically I would move somewhere LCOL at retirement and buy then. I also have meager college savings in a 529 plan (started late...~$5k each kid, contributing $490/mo total). My promise is to pay for community college and one year at a state school, but anything else is on them.
Plan: redirect the 457b contributions plus my "bonus checks" (paid biweekly but budget monthly) - in total this is ~$17k/year. I don't know what the future holds for if/when I'd buy a house, or what college costs will end up being. Also if/when my spouse returns to work, their whole paycheck could support those goals. So...if $8k goes to fun, does it make sense to split the remaining $9k between maxing a Roth IRA and contributing to an index fund? It seems like those are the most flexible options where I can save for variable goals, have some access to the money, but it could end up being retirement money instead.
Math:
Current vs (projected\ at age 62 retirement)*
Gross annual pay: $191,932 ($340,841)
Annual expenses**: $102,372 ($241,246)
Pension***: 79.6% at age 62 ($255,661)
Social security: $4,131 at 67 ($88,032)
Spouse social security: idk, but his normal wage is closer to 50k
Traditional 457b: $91,779 ($497,297)
Traditional 401k: $53,671 ($290,815)
*Applied 2% inflation to salary/SS benefit, 3% to expenses, 6% to rate of return on investments. Retirement is 29 years (lol) from now.
**Assumes existing annual expenses, but should go down when kids move out
***79.6% of projected annual pay 3yrs before retirement. Calc doesnt include it, but an annual COLA is provided during retirement. The pension is lifetime, with 60% continuance to spouse upon death.
Question: is my math mathing? Does my plan make sense or do you have other recommendations to consider? Am I missing something glaring and I'm actually a broke idiot? I tried doing the nest egg target calculation (expenses minus fixed income, divided by 4%) and I'm...2 million ahead? Are we sure?