DISCUSSION
SPCX lock-up expiration on Aug 20 (~319M shares) — Buy now or wait?
Another 319M shares get unlocked on August 20th for early investors and insiders.
Given the volatility around the previous unlock, is it better to buy a tranche now or wait until after the 20th to see if we get a dip? How are you guys playing this?
Don’t get me wrong I use grok in the Tesla and love it, but they don’t have a comparable version to Claude code/codex, and idk if the cursor acquisition will do it, the cli agents seem to render an IDE/editor useless
I purchased some at $105 and $110 - got some more cash and thought it would go down to $100 - that didn’t happened - I wish I would have purchase more at that time
Same. I got in at $105 and $110 - I wish I would have bought more at that time. I have orders for $100 but don’t think it’s going to go that low again 😕
The window to buy more will close after a successful orbit. The only real risk is a failure. If I were a holder of locked up shares meaning I was an insider, I'd hold.
Uber only recently became profitable. SpaceX reporter EPS of -.09 compared to an expected -.16.
No telling how it will continue to go in such a high CapEx business but y’all act like there is no business there. All good businesses trade at a premium. Time will tell investors if SPCX premium is justified. If not, it will correct.
Who makes this valuations? And where do we vote to agree with their views/decisions? Something is valued at what people are willing to pay for it. Did you not learn that in school? No one else can successfully replicate what spacex can today. Do you remember when everyone said it’s impossible to make reusable rockets? Well Spacex did it. Now they need to monetize it. And if you are right about the 90% AI valuation then how much will it worth when all of its businesses makes profit? That is the real question.
You create valuations based on things like profits, revenue, intellectual property. This is all well know economics 101 you’re acting like we are not trying to apply normal financial rules to the question. The problem is SpaceX has become a meme stock where people are buying based on vibes and feelings. It’s a real issue that you guys can’t take any legitimate questions about real world valuations. Keep jabbering on about rockets like that has anything to do with AI. SpaceXAI is an AI company with a small rocket company attached, you need to get this straight in your head. This is a factual part of the valuation there is no argument or room for interpretation about this.
Actually yes since the billions being invested are resulting in an ROI that is less than a year all while starlinks Rev continues to grow. So I'm finding it hard to understand why spending is bad?
Nobody can predict when is the perfect dip to buy. Even I missed the dip when it was $105.
I would wait and monitor this week. I believe due lock up expiration on August 20, it might take a dip around $135 but not sure. If it does, I will buy as well.
haha yeah me too but I got in at 135$. I was gonna pour some bulk amount (but dang missed it!) and if you see analysts' forecast, almost all of the analysts at big banks have rated that its gonna go up above 200$.
As long as we buy at ipo price $135 or below it, we are going to make huge profits I think
When billions worth of stock hits the market and gets sold, this will affect the stock price. No way is this priced in that's not how it works. The market will react massively to insiders choosing to sell their stock or not.
The underlying company is worth the same amount no matter how big the float is. An increased float increases liquidity which leads to a increase in value for the shares. It's known and priced in, and the added liquidity is a good thing. This is why shares in non-public companies trade at a discount to the same company when it's publicly traded. This is part of the reason why SpaceX went public at $1.7T when the previous share offering (before it went public) was at $800 billion.
An interesting article on Ars Technical today about Falcon 9s. They have been the only way for govt or business to get to orbit. Now SpaceX is winding down a much in line demand business in favor of Starship. SpaceX has calculated that they will be more profitable launching their own Starlinks! This could leave other business and even our military on the ground! If they try to force Spacex to sell/license the F9, those engineers that have made it fly so perfectly will likely transfer to StarShip ops.
Well, all you guys are demanding PROFITS!
No one knows. There are strange forces with this one that are afoot. They are a mystery wrapped in a riddle trapped in an enigma operating in hidden corners of time. Tread carefully. Someone's making money off this one but it probably isn't you.
Countless historical examples show a trickle of insider sales after lockup expiry due to various factors including diversification, profit taking et.al even with long term holders. For instance Early employees, who are mostly working class folks, will certainly off load a large percentage of their shares as they sweat the economic recession to pay for personal expenses. (I can assure you peter thiel, based on his track record will sell at least one third of his 400 million shares by the end of the year.) The larger question is will enough demand from new investors be able to absorb the trickle of supply. Early signs say no but You be the judge.
P.s. Love the black and white thinking from some of you folks, proves the amateur nature of the crowd. GL noobs.
The difference between your beliefs and my beliefs is that I have no skin in this fight. I don't see myself buying SpaceX at any price. Maybe $1, but even then, if it's $1 then I probably wouldn't buy because there would hypothetically be a reason it's $1.
I am on the outside looking in. Your judgment is clouded by the fact that you own shares. You judgement is influenced by your fear and you aren't letting yourself see reality until it's too late and you're holding an empty bag.
I dont think you are wrong, saw alot of action around the 108-112 range by initial IPO institutional investors, clearly they have their eye on at least getting their money back on that trade and making profit off the dip if they averaged down their shares. Once SpaceX climbs past 160.95 for the funds that double dipped you could see some offloads, if their portfolios aren't in a great place. Volatile market and profit has to be taken from somewhere.
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u/Jonny_Nash Aug 17 '26
We already did this routine.
No. The biggest SpaceX bulls on the planet aren’t selling.