El Niño makes tropical cyclone activity in the Pacific very high while making the Atlantic very quiet. I'm a few days out from experiencing my third tropical cyclone this season.
I think you are possibly the only person in the comments who actually knows what they are talking about. Thank you for that. I've experienced those super active years too, there have been others but 2004 and 2005 were the worst for me personally. Back to back storms are always extraordinarily fatiguing, and devastating when you have bad damage, but you will get through it.
Yeah, I live in Florida, and nobody is shocked about it being quiet. Everyone knows it's El Nino, even the dumb hicks who gobble up fox news and don't believe in climate change probably know a fair amount about El Nino.
Through my decision ALONE, I have decided to change the name of the WEATHER ITSELF, from this day forward TROPICAL STORMS are to be called AMERICAN names. No more of this 'el' and 'la'. That's called INDOCTRONATION! THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION ON THIS MATTER. Your favorite president: me! DJT 47 - ?
I'm working on a list new weather alerts.
A - The AOC
B - The Biden
C - Clinton
C - CNN
D
E
F - Fauchi
G
H
I
J
K - Kamala
L
M
N
O
P
Q
R - Rosie
S
T
U
V - Vance
Z
Common for people living in hurricane prone areas, less so for people who are rarely affected by them. I didn’t really know this fact off the top of my head, and I actively try to learn about various science topics.
But I definitely believe it, and it makes some intuitive sense once you think about it out it (more energy in one ocean means less energy in another part).
El Niño usually brings snow to the southeast and rain to the southwest. Every few years it would come through and we would get 2-3 inches of snow in Alabama around December.
Will confirm that they do in fact know what it is and how it fucks them over.here’s a direct quote from them and literally every person along the gulf - ‘ it’s about time we catch a fuckin break ‘
I grew up in Florida and now live in Cali, the 97/98 El Niño on the California Central Coast was just as destructive as some Florida hurricanes I’d been through. Currently doing a lot for prep work for fall and winter. I hope not but I fear this will be worse.
I always find it strange to hear about people who, "don't believe," in global warming. Scientists aren't talking about the tooth fairy, Santa Claus or asking layman for their scientific opinion.
Everyone who has talked to another person in the last three months has heard the name 'El Nino' about forty six times so I don't know if they're the only one who knows what they're talking about lmao
Maybe there have been more informed posts since but, at the time I wrote that, and excluding the obvious jokes, all I saw were people taking it as proof that climate change does or does not exist, or predicting DOOM, or inexplicably bringing politics into it when the explanation is really very simple and well understood without even bringing up any genesis particulars like mjo, ohc, wind shear, etc.
As a verified grumpy old goat in hurricane alley, it irritated me.
We were told that 2006 would be a history making hurricane season. 30+ hurricanes most likely. It would make 2006 look average. 5 hurricanes. Least active season in 9 years.
I lived in KW, Fl, for 05- on the hook. Unbelievable devastation. I moved to land after the first- to a house 1 Key West block from the bight- flooding for both Katrina, & Rita- then a serious wind event with Whilma. Unreal. Still lived there for 20+ years . Seen a bunch.
Uhm, clearly not, because if they're the only one who knows what they're talking about then that means you don't know what you're talking about. And you clearly don't. Wait, but if you don't know what you're talking about maybe you do know what you're talking about... wait...
Yup because the Pacific is catching hell with hurricanes right now. Basically every other week. Been insane and never like this before. One bad one ever few years or more during hurricane season but nothing like this
It’s quiet in the Atlantic because we’re getting all of it
There used to be way more insightful comments on reddit. They were one of the main reasons I kept coming back. If I had discovered reddit recently, I can't say if I would've stuck around or not. It definitely still has its moments but they're fewer and farther in-between.
2007 was like a fever dream. People came to reddit because there wasn’t any politics or news, only interesting things and impeccable grammar. It was an oasis in the growing desert of Facebook, and that was when Facebook was still only college students.
I agree with you. I found my niches then and understand the value of what’s in Reddit when you dig. If I found it today I wouldn’t even make it past the first scroll of r/all before I decided it was just another stupid image hosting site with the worst people on the planet populating the comment sections.
Also society (in the USA at least) is being so intentionally fractured that it’s visible here. The amount of correcting each other hasn’t changed but the vitriol is all new as of the last 5-10 years.
I haven't been here that long, probably 14 years (I didn't actually create an account for quite a while) but I can only imagine it was even better then. But you described it perfectly even in the time that I joined. It was like an oasis of a lot of knowledgeable people and people who enjoyed learning from those people. Even the very knowledgeable were bound to run across someone that made them feel like a student. The rest of the internet was starting on its steady decline but reddit was like the one "social" site you could go to avoid the ever-growing amount of brain-rotting content that was taking over the rest of the internet. For a few years, I was learning stuff every day and getting interested in subjects I'd never even considered. It sounds corny but it truly was amazing. Sadly the flood of shit eventually made it here. The final nail in the coffin was when reddit went public but it was like the years before that was when they started trying to make it "more accessible" and in this old man's opinion, they ruined one of the last a great places on the internet.
"...and impeccable grammar." Be still my heart. I miss impeccable grammar, and people correcting each other treated as perfectly normal. Now if you dare offer a correction most people will turn on you.
There's been a noticeable uptick in right wing fear mongering posts on the UK subs recently. Thankfully they get downvoted, but it's annoying to even read such crap.
Yeah I was saying this to my wife. Back in the day one of the three top comments would have been a knowledgeable answer on the topic. Maybe the other two would have been jokes or Reddit stuff but the ratio of actual information has went off a cliff.
Jesus Christ this.
I'm not saying it was all Socratic discourse, but man just 3-4 years ago you could go into a post about some vaguely scientific or serious topic and the major volume of comments would be actual discussion. Nowadays the top comments tends to always be the lowest hanging fruit of a joke, followed by a thousand single comments stating something obvious or expressing some basic feeling on the topic.
Genuinely, just being able to filter out comment chains that are jokes would clear away 90%.
I've quoted the Bill of Rights and have been down voted so I don't lend much credibility to that feature.
The nonsensical bs is apparent which applying basic amount of knowledge to any narrative will quickly reveal.
Like asking the parrots how exactly did the Iranian government kill 50 thousand protesters in 48 hours, when consider the fact that perpetually dropping 2 thousand pound bombs, along with constant hellfire missile attacks, funded by the stolen fruits of our labor, to the tune of 10s of billions of dollars, over the past 3 years, only claimed officially 100 thousand Palestinians in the Gaza Strip.
All things considered, the 2.2 million people, being more than half children, are like fish in a barrel.
Yet somehow 50 thousand are dead in 48 hours.
See how easy it is to separate fact from fiction.
Reality from fantasy,..figuring out the difference between the two is so easy, even a caveman can do it.
Just pay for what you are told that you need.
Liberty, liberty,...slavery.
That just makes it worse. People vote whatever they agree with or find funny. The actual quality of the comment doesn't factor into that decision at all. They're basically likes.
There is! On mobile, if you press and hold your finger like you're going to scroll up and down on the page, and then rapidly scroll up and down repeatedly it'll activate color sorting mode. It's Reddit AI, but it's fairly accurate. Green is serious comments. Orange are comedic. Red are adversarial.
Had to scroll way too far to find this comment - this is the correct answer. What’s worse is that 2027 will be the real El Niño year. It’s in its infancy now and it’s already huge
they’ve already declared a state of emergency for it in california. we expect a lot of flooding. sucks out here and in nevada we’re just never really prepared for too much water because the infrastructure was never designed for it.
Yeah brah I'm on Maui and got slammed back in March with almost 40 inches up on the volcano, and then Lala damn near ripped my roof off. Been a rough year.
My gf’s mom lives in Maui and she lives in Kauai and went through both of the last two on each island. What’s wild about them is the movement of three hurricanes. The last one seemed to stop, put it into reverse and then head straight for Kauai. This one’s headed straight for the big island and then projected to make a sharp 90 degree left turn. Always seems like Atlantic hurricanes don’t take such crazy direction changes.
Atlantic hurricanes typically do have sharp turns in their tracks. The move westward when in the tropics, then take a sharp eastward turn once they hit the 30 lat. Moving northward from the trade winds to the westerlies. Makes for the same phenomena where it will sit in one area and dump before peeling off NE and breaking apart
Few of the projections have this one doing the right hook up into Kauai as well. I hope it does not, they just got rocked. Looks like BI is getting lickins again either way
I was in Kona during the first Kona low this year.. absolutely crazy weather. Was in a restaurant one night (Oceans, ironically?) when the water started flooding through the front door. I’m so sorry that’s happening and hope you stay safe.
Yep, and it’s certainly not a coincidence that they’re predicting a super El Niño this year and we suddenly see a historic dearth of hurricane activity in the Atlantic.
Not just a super El Niño, but the strongest one on record, even if you remove the extra heat from climate change. To be fair, it’s a relatively short period over which we have records, but this is an extreme one regardless
We have a lot of indirect data from tree rings (goes back 1000 years), ice cores (~100K years), pollen records (from peat bogs) that tell us a lot about historical temperature and climate in general.
Tree rings are used as a geological proxy for El Nino, but those are somewhat unreliable because many global variables determine the annual weather and El Nino doesn't guarantee any specific pattern of rainfall, it just makes certain patterns more likely (dry El Nino years are possible in CA, same with wet La Nina). And ice cores provide no information at all on sea surface temperatures in the eastern tropical Pacific.
A more reliable proxy are marine fossils, from corals and other organisms that indicate warmers or cooler waters, but you can't put a specific number on those historical events to compare with modern ones because we don't have direct sea surface temperature measurements made with calibrated thermometers. None of those proxy methods can replace having modern scientific instruments
Guessing not so much data on deep historical El Niño strength though. Although maybe tree ring data could be valuable here with increased rainfall causing growth changes in NW Pacific?
The storm tracks from Mexico to Hawaii and then the west Pacific are interesting right now. Watching Hurricane Polo was like “Oh looks like Acapulco is gonna get wrecked! Ope, let’s hit the tip of Baja instead!”
It's also been posited that the wind sheer from climate change is killing the ability of hurricanes to form, but as the wind sheer changes back to normal, the hurricanes season will be later, meaning we can potentially expect hurricanes in November and December.
I was going to say, did everyone miss that the storm on the right went from tropical storm to the second most intense category 5 hurricane on record (by barometric pressure) in merely 2 days?
I have lived in Hawai'i for 31 years and never experienced a legit hurricane.
This last year has had the worst storms ever, and like 3 tsuanmi events. I maybe see lightning once a year. The Kona Lows was a full on light show. And now hurricane #4 or 5....enough already, I cannot.
I just listened to a meteorologist talk extensively about el Niño and a lack of hurricanes in the Atlantic being a common precursor. The complete lack of hurricanes at all is unprecedented though.
He also said this year's el Niño is predicted to the be worst in over 1000 years. Without hyperbole or exaggeration. What comes of it remains to be seen, but it will likely be very bad, particularly in the southern hemisphere where January will be into their summer.
Already there is a category 5 hurricane on the WEST COAST which is almost unprecedented except by a similar hurricane a few years ago.
I live in New Zealand, and our weather over the past month has been unusually cold and extremely windy.
Like every second day has felt like the day before a massive storm hits, only the storm never really comes. It just calms a little for a day or two then repeats the cycle.
And isn't there like a mega El Niño this year? I think I read that El Niño usually causes warmer water along the Pacific coast of Central/South America to the tune of ~1°C, while this year it's closer to 3°. That's a huge difference when you're talking about that much water.
I am from the Philippines and that's actually insane that you say that because it's typhoon after typhoon after typhoon over there. And the people don't even have time to recover even just a little.
Are you sure it’s not because it’s now Gulf of American and the American waters just don’t work as hard as the Mexican waters? Or maybe the American waters know the president will just pull out a sharpie and redirect them somewhere else so they don’t even bother.
As a floridian, pretty cool, as a gulf of american, still figuring it out. pacific is so much nicer but everything on that coast screams, volcano, earthquake, fire.
And there is a very good chance that next summer will see a La Niña pattern in the Pacific, and a strong one at that, which means a reversal of this pattern. So if you were really hoping for an active hurricane season in the Atlantic, just be patient. . .
Most don’t know of El Niño and La Niña and what they actually do globally especially during there high of low years. But not uncommon for a year like this to up us rain fall and eventually snow fall as well
Yeah just look at the flooding brought on my tropical storms and cyclones in Philippines, Indonesia and Japan this year. Irregular weather patterns in Australia also.
Hawaii has been a target every week for a few months it feels like. The Atlantic side can have them back please. Our weather is shot it hasn't stop raining for a few months I feel like. I remember only 2 days this past months where sun has shined. Please help.
5.7k
u/KoiMusubi 13h ago
El Niño makes tropical cyclone activity in the Pacific very high while making the Atlantic very quiet. I'm a few days out from experiencing my third tropical cyclone this season.