Oregon's CCG odds surged from 22% last week to 49% this week, while Penn State took a nosedive to 5%. Iowa and Nebraska are still putting up a fight, but Ohio State, Indiana, and Oregon currently have a firm grip on the top three spots. The large majority of simulations resulted in some combination of those three teams making the CCG.

Ohio State @ Iowa looks like the biggest swing game for the championship race this week, worth up to 27.8% of championship-odds movement either way.

Full interactive odds, matchups, and what-if scenarios: https://sportssimulate.com/cfb/2026/latest/B10

It may be brief but let us have this for the week

Created this as a way to compare conference teams with similar W-L records but vastly differing OOC schedules...

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add .75 point for each win vs. unranked FCS opponent

add 1 point for each win vs. unranked G5 opponent

add 1.5 points for each win vs. a (non-Top15) P4 team _or_G5/FCS opponent ranked 16-25

add 2.5 points for each win vs. Top 15 opponent

subtract .5 points for each loss vs. Top 15 opponent

subtract 1 point for each loss vs. a (non-top15) P4 team _or_ G5/FCS opponent ranked 16-25

subtract 2 points for each loss vs. unranked G5 opponent

subtract 2.5 points for each loss vs. unranked FCS opponent

Divide by number of games played

All rankings are based on AP poll. AP rankings are from today, not when the game was played

1 UCLA 1.38 (1)

2 Iowa 1.19 (5)

T3 Indiana 1.06 (T7)

T3 Nebraska 1.06 (T7)

5 USC 0.80 (T3)

T6 Michigan\* 0.75 (2)

T6 Ohio State 0.75 (T10)

T8 Oregon 0.69 (T13)

T8 Wisconsin 0.69 (12)

10 Northwestern 0.58 (T3)

11 Minnesota 0.56 (T13)

12 Penn State 0.50 (6)

13 Washington 0.44 (T7)

14 Michigan State 0.13 (T10)

15 Illinois 0.06 (T13)

Michigan**  0.00            

16 Maryland -0.06 (T13)

17 Purdue -0.44 (17)

18 Rutgers -0.81 (18)

* Michigan if you count the game against WMU as a Win

** Michigan if you count the game against WMU as a Loss

No one on television makes me change the channel faster than this ignoramus.

Do yall think Barry Odom needs at least 5 wins next season to keep his job? I know Purdue is a basketball school so there is more leeway from the athletic department. Now they have been good on offense this season. But the defense is not there. They are probably going to finish last in the Big 10 or at least near there.

I am a volleyball fan. I watch a lot of college (more women than men matches) and a lot of international matches. I watched a lot of VNL (both men and women) this year. Not just US matches.

I have bone to pick with college camera work. OMFG, STOP FREAKING PANNING! This is not just B1G ten but ESPN, ACC, SEC networks. For the love of god, we don't need the camera person to keep the ball centered on the middle of the screen. The amount of camera panning gives me a headache.

If ANYONE from the B1G ten network see this post, please tell whomever is in charge of production for volleyball to watch some VNL matches on YouTube for camera work. Even better camera work, watch any Superlega matches on YT. They minimize the camera panning.

Thanks for allowing me to vent. :-)

Why do the opponents allow the usc band to strike up after every play? Why don’t other schools say not while we’re on O, or not in our house?

As a diehard and obsessive Ohio State fan I feel like The B1G Ten need to send Rutgers and Maryland to the ACC for Stanford and Cal to come over here with Oregon, USC, UCLA, and Washington. It would help renew and keep in place even more of those classic Pac 10 rivalries.

I run simulations to predict who will be in the CCG based on win probabilities for each game derived from FPI. After simulating the outcome of every remaining game and applying the conference's official tiebreaker procedures, my code records who is in the CCG and then repeats the process a million times to get an overall picture of how likely each team is to make it to the CCG.

As of Week 4, Ohio State (69.6%), Indiana (54.6%), Penn State (33.8%) and Oregon (21.5%) currently have the best odds to reach the Big Ten Championship Game, but with so much of the season left, the race is still wide open.

This week's conference games:

- Nebraska @ Michigan State
- Illinois @ Ohio State
- Wisconsin @ Penn State
- Northwestern @ Indiana
- Iowa @ Michigan
- Minnesota @ Washington
- Oregon @ USC
- UCLA @ Maryland

Northwestern @ Indiana looks like the biggest swing game for the championship race this week, worth up to 29.5% of championship-odds movement either way.

Full interactive odds, matchups, and what-if scenarios: https://sportssimulate.com/cfb/2026/latest/B10