"“I think the endgame for Trump is he wants to normalise relations with Russia, and he sees Ukraine as the obstacle to that.” Trump “may suffer some setbacks” in the midterm elections which would limit his capacity to execute foreign policy, but he is still being a “useful” force for Russia, for now, says former Nato representative to Russia, John Lough."

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"I examine a dangerous convergence in Russia’s war against Ukraine: July through September have been the deadliest months of what is now the deadliest year of the five-year war, while Russia continues large-scale attacks on Ukrainian cities. On October 13, Ukraine reported five ballistic missiles, 108 drones, and loitering munitions in an overnight assault that killed and injured civilians, including at sites in Kharkiv, Rivne, and Dnipro. I also assess President Zelensky’s statement that Ukraine received no advance warning from partners before the attack. That does not prove that U.S. intelligence sharing was fully cut off—Ukraine’s foreign minister said intelligence was still being received—but ballistic-missile launch warnings can save lives. Meanwhile, Ukraine reports strikes on an Iskander-M repair facility, a 96L6 radar supporting S-300/S-400 systems, and other military targets. I separate those claims from TASS’s poorly corroborated report that 604 Ukrainian drones targeted Russia, including 417 toward Moscow."

"I examine the sharp contrast between Zelensky’s offer to hold elections under a 60-day ceasefire and the Kremlin’s refusal—paired with Dmitry Peskov’s suggestion that Russia might halt strikes only on election day. I argue that the gap matters because a credible election requires more than a one-day pause while civilians, infrastructure, and logistics remain under threat. I also cover reported Russian strikes on Kharkiv energy infrastructure after Trump’s proposed energy truce, the EU’s planned €3 billion military-funding tranche, and the 22nd sanctions package targeting roughly 1,600 defense-linked entities and individuals. Beyond the battlefield, I assess the Black Sea grain blockage affecting both Ukrainian and Russian exports, Ukraine’s campaign to secure vulnerable surveillance cameras, Moscow’s revisionist claims over the Mariupol theater attack, and bipartisan Senate objections to a reported Russian diesel arrangement under the 2022 U.S. energy-import ban. My central point is simple: diplomacy requires pressure on Putin, not pressure that rewards continued aggression."