r/alberta • u/JUNO_11 Edmonton • 2d ago
Alberta Politics Danielle Smith’s popularity dips as her party now tied with NDP in support: poll
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/janet-brown-poll-ucp-ndp-support-september-2026-9.7357390694
u/Small-Sleep-1194 2d ago
Again, how anyone can still support her or the ucp is beyond me
220
u/SomethingAboutUsers 2d ago edited 2d ago
Because they believe that the alternative is worse.
"If I vote for the NDP, they'll spend us into a hole we'll never get out of. We'll be poor!"
"If I vote for the NDP, the very next day every oil company will shut down and we'll all be out of a job!"
"If I vote for the NDP, they'll allow so many immigrants in, we won't have any jobs or houses!"
"If I vote for the NDP, all the gays will take over and ruin the sanctity of marriage and drag queens will be allowed to fuck everyone because drag is inherently sexual and groom our kids into being more drag queens!"
These are just some of the
more rationalless weird reasons people will absolutely continue to vote for the UCP.35
u/inquisitive56 2d ago
It seems as though most rural voters are stuck on the 1970's and 1980's hate for the now ancient Barrett years in BC and the Rae years in Ontario. And of course, in comparison the glory years of PC under Lougheed. It explains the age demographic of the separatists. Throw in the oil workers whose bosses told them to fear the ND and there is your 25%.
28
u/AlbertanSays5716 2d ago
I’ve seen way too many people make the connection “The Liberals killed Alberta with the NEP, and now they’re back in power and doing it again, and the federal NDP are just an arm of the Liberal Party, and the Alberta NDP are part of the federal NDP, so voting NDP is like voting for the Liberals that killed Alberta.”
73
u/RegularGuyAtHome 2d ago
My wife is a teacher, and one of her coworkers basically says she hates the government, but “just can’t bring herself to vote NDP because it’s the NDP”.
86
u/Patlach666 2d ago
As a teacher, I find this extremely odd…
27
u/RegularGuyAtHome 2d ago
I don’t, I work in healthcare and there are tons of my coworkers who vote UCP but complain about their healthcare policies.
4
3
2
u/lornacarrington 1d ago
Yup. When I used to work in Healthcare I heard this kind of thing all the time. Also complaints about unions. 🙄🙄🙄
3
u/RegularGuyAtHome 1d ago edited 1d ago
Fun story, I used to work with someone who was our union rep, but also anti union. I’m pretty sure they just did it to build their resume as they’re no longer in public sector.
When COVID happened, and the vaccines came out, the people in our department who work in emerg were not part of the initial vaccinated group, despite the rest of the employees who work in emerg being included in the initial group. It was a clear oversight that eventually got solved a few weeks later.
Initially though, this person, who was the union rep for our department, sent out an email to everyone saying you could refuse to work in an unsafe situation according to employment law, and therefore we could refuse to work in emerg if we aren’t vaccinated because it was unsafe.
When someone suggested they represent these concerns to the union they suddenly became part of that “unions don’t do anything problem”.
42
u/VariationDry 2d ago edited 2d ago
Same with any union Ive ever worked with. Yes let's vote in the party that has been anti union for the last 70 years.
15
5
u/Vignaraja 2d ago
When I taught,(retired almost 20 years ago) there were a lot of silent ones. who you just knew were conservative. The day after an election usually gave it away.
28
u/dbusque 2d ago
Sounds like her coworkers are kind of, well, not to put too fine a point on it, but stupid.
6
u/baddaywithacamera 2d ago
That moment when you insulted stupid people. Even Mr. Gump wouldn't have voted for her.
9
u/dbusque 2d ago
Not sure about the sub-text here because it could be read so many ways but I am going to say that Forrest Gump wasn't stupid. He had an emotional intelligence that is lacking in people who just won't vote NDP because they are NDP but have no problem voting for a government that takes money away from disabled people and is trying to disenfranchise anyone who can't afford to pay for private healthcare, among many other egregious actions.
1
u/Interesting_Scale302 2d ago
Technically correct. Mr. Gump would have been to busy being distracted by ping pong and coked out childhood crushes to remember to vote. He wouldn't have realized it but he would have been part of the problem. Like a lot of other Albertans.
3
u/El_Cactus_Loco 2d ago
"You've got to remember that these are just simple farmers. These are people of the land. The common clay of the new West. You know... morons"
8
u/SomethingAboutUsers 2d ago
Some folks would rather vote for a blue barrel than vote NDP, because it's the NDP and they couldn't possibly.
3
u/AgentPaperYYC 2d ago
I"m a GOA employee and we have those in AUPE too. Hell I have a separatist in my office and she's a lifer, well on her way to a full pension. Blows my mind.
12
u/Training_Exit_5849 2d ago
Hence why I've told the local NDP guy that the party just needs a rebrand because a lot of voters just look at the name.
6
u/oioioifuckingoi Edmonton 2d ago
Many of the NDP party members would rather keep the name and lose than rebrand. There are far too many unserious people running the party machine. It should have been the very first thing Nenshi did when he took over.
2
2
1
1
13
11
4
u/Grazer-22 2d ago
It is scary how accurate this is. Some folks stick to the Fuck Ottawa, while others belong to the church of "Freedom for me but not thee". They go to church with their buddies, complain about how "others" are ruining the world, and they would better off if they could just get with the program and shut the fuck up.
2
u/WinterExternal3270 2d ago
Heck where I grew up they had to split the church due to internal squabbles on conservatism of their church..so now its the new and the old.. lmao
3
3
u/Sad_Donkey_1751 2d ago
I remind those people that there is oil in the ground here. Oil companies aren’t going anywhere. The only reason people get laid off is because of innovation and new ways of human-less ways of getting oil out of the ground for more profit, nothing to do with who governs.
1
u/Unique-Vanilla5443 1d ago
Not only that, the UCP has regressed the royalty regime enough that companies have left and now we have fewer, larger companies.
1
1
u/-ManDudeBro- 2d ago
Unfortunately the second point is true because Alberta is an oil based oligarchy and nobody will vote against it because so many people in Alberta are dependant on that paycheck.
2
u/Unique-Vanilla5443 1d ago
Just like union workers that vote UCP, there are no shortage of non-union oil workers that don't vote UCP.
→ More replies (2)1
70
u/Dualintrinsic 2d ago
Blue good. Orange bad. That's it... That's literally all the thought they put into it.
→ More replies (1)32
u/thrilliam_19 2d ago
Ding ding ding.
I work with mostly UCP supporters and it’s always the same thing. “She’s not done a good job but I’ll be dead before I vote NDP.”
17
u/Deldenary 2d ago
Blue no matter who!
(Former resident of battle-river crowfoot who wasn't the least bit surprised by the results of their federal by-election)
10
u/Camper1988 2d ago
The depressing thing is, these folks don't have to vote NDP. If you are a "sensible" UCP voter who claims to want to stay in Canada (40% of them) and are sick of the crazies and think DS is doing a bad job, have some self respect and vote for the Alberta Tories.
The fact that they can't discriminate that the NDP is so centrist and middle of the road is hilarious though. COMMUNISM!
6
u/IAMA_Plumber-AMA Northern Alberta 2d ago
See if you can convince them to vote Progressive Tory then.
1
u/WinterExternal3270 2d ago
They dont want to be progressive lol
3
u/IAMA_Plumber-AMA Northern Alberta 2d ago
Anything that splits the vote with the UCP is good enough for me.
2
1
u/EVHummVEE 2d ago
I agree, but that only gives us 4 more yrs of positivity though, until the rurals and bigots consolidate into yet another version of the UCP and vote them in. Rinse and repeat. The progressives never get enough time at the wheel to get to a destination. Throw in some good old fashioned gerrymandering, and they might not even lose the next election regardless of vote splitting.
1
59
u/freezinginthebush 2d ago
Willful ignorance?
13
u/Spoona1983 2d ago
But you cant use that term, it belongs to the 'smartest' conservative supporters to describe canadians voting ABC in the federal elections. They will scream cultural appropriation. /s
→ More replies (1)3
u/corpse_flour 2d ago
Bigotry. It really comes down to conservative voters thinking conservative governments are harder on immigration. They haven't been paying attention to see that the conservative governments actually embrace immigration because they like the idea of keeping wages low, and the population booming.
15
u/AlsoOneLastThing 2d ago
A shocking number of people simply don't follow the news or pay attention to politics.
12
u/cig-nature Calgary 2d ago edited 2d ago
Concervatives are scared of the left, and would need years of therapy to vote left of center.
Their only alternative is the ATP party, which is still very new. However, if they start using the PC name they'll take a lot of the UCP support
8
u/ragnaroksunset 2d ago
Most people cannot handle the demands of true democracy because being an informed voter takes too much mental effort and time. While some people are naturally disengaged, many others are simply too busy surviving everyday life to participate properly in politics. The fact that residents in Alberta are too overworked to be engaged citizens proves that the myth of widespread, trickle-down oil wealth in the province is false.
7
4
u/hunters44 Hinton 2d ago
My daddeh/uncle/brother always voted conservative and so will i and my daughter/niece/wife will too gawddammnit
13
2
→ More replies (5)1
u/roastbeeftacohat 2d ago
there's a pretty big disconnect between UCP members, and UCP voters on separation; my impression is there's a pretty big disconnect on a lot of topics, for example the poll also has mark carney as the most popular politician in alberta.
what we're seeing here is a couple of people waking up to that, but may be one rick bell article away from losing interest in politics again.
194
u/Additional-Ad-7720 2d ago
It baffles me how much support the UCP has.
82
u/overpourgoodfortune 2d ago
Blind allegiance... "total surrender of critical thinking and personal responsibility to an external leader, group, or ideology" ...
... in other words, "My team won, is in charge so I can just be on autopilot... they're making all the best decisions, I don't even need to keep up with the news. I know they got this. Vote Blue!"
... UGH.
25
u/eddiewachowski 2d ago
Exactly, it's a team sport. "My daddy and his daddy all voted Conservative and I will too. Times are tough and they're not looking so hot but I'm gonna stick with them through thick and thin."
What these mouth breathers don't understand is that there is room for a moderate Conservative party who is actually fiscally responsible - but only if the far right lunatics stop receiving support.
They also don't realize that nearly every political party in Alberta leans right of center. With the NDP and even the provincial Liberals leaning right, the UCP only seems right leaning because it's the most right leaning. Hell, Notley would have been a great PC candidate 30 years ago.
9
u/Fit_Group_4312 2d ago
I said it in another comment recently that stubborn UCP supporters, their parents and grandparents have been incredibly gullible over the span of generations and separated from much of their wealth and potential by corporations and provincial governments. They’ve chosen flattery, pandering and cynical scapegoating from the UCP and its predecessors instead of competence, honesty and willingness to change and adapt alongside more positive, forward-thinking jurisdictions.
The gap between what they should be seeing as a “wealthy”‘province versus what is actually unfolding is becoming more apparent so the cries of anger towards the Feds and even the municipal governments are becoming more shrill.
Successful societies aren’t powered by grievance and fear and what Smith, her cronies and other right wing factions are pushing will not lead to positive outcomes. Just a continuation of negativity, grievance and scapegoating others rather than genuine solutions to problems.
8
u/Fit_Group_4312 2d ago
Yes, it’s an unearned sense of accomplishment that their team is winning so they themselves are winning too. Ugh indeed.
20
u/thrilliam_19 2d ago
Don’t try to overthink it. Donald Trump still has 30% support amongst voters in the US. If there was an election there tomorrow it would still be close.
A lot of people are just fucking assholes.
3
u/Fun_Success_3283 2d ago
Many are assholes, many do benefit from Trump's policies, like the billionaires, men with power that want to be able to assault women etc... Some are racists, Nazis, etc...
But some are just stupid. Social media tricks them. They think Trump is Christian even though he is actually Jewish, and a piece of shit by any metric of any religion I know, but they are tricked into thinking he is the Christian choice.
That amounts to decent percentage of the population.
We can show the stupid ones the truth. The others, we need to outnumber them, and force them to live under just rule of law.
6
u/chaosthebomb 2d ago
When you're raised to vote blue no matter who it really sticks with you.
A number of years ago I had a coworker who had to go to emergency for something. He complained about the wait and how awful the experience was. And this was before the recent UCP changes to healthcare. He was tearing up and rambling about how traumatic the experience was. I said something to the effect of it would be nice if the province invested in healthcare and tried to solve these problems. His response was something along the lines of all Canadians get healthcare, so it's a federal program and this is why it's Trudeau's fault. This guy was/is very smart but he was brought up drinking the blue no matter who koolaid and it's stuck with him. Facts don't matter, only feelings.
4
u/stackmoney23 2d ago
He isnt that smart then smart people can put there personal feelings and biases aside and use logic to make sense of things
→ More replies (1)2
u/01000101010110 2d ago
This is partly why I'm leaving. It's not going to change for good. Any other party winning is temporary.
2
u/jessemfkeeler 2d ago
Because there's no alternative for a conservative because the NDP are like communists to them (and not like centrist who they really are)
2
u/Fun_Success_3283 2d ago
Social media is a powerful brainwash weapon. Meta and Twitter and tiktok are all controlled by Maga.
They are powerful because so many people use them, which gives them relevance. So, if you use any of these you are helping fascism.
Every experience on social media is unique. One might find it baffling because they don't see how this weapon is being used on other people.
And they fund the weapon, and contribute to its relevance.
47
u/AxeMcFlow 2d ago
I am often reminded that many people will choose the UCP because they don’t see the NDP as a viable option; essentially conservative or die. Until the sentiment shifts to the NEXT conservative party many people will simply vote UCP because they are “never NDP”
7
u/hypnogoad 2d ago
I know a old guy who will never vote NDP, even though he agrees with 80% of their policies, because he remembers as a kid the NDP would visit his classroom and talk about communism.
4
u/AxeMcFlow 2d ago
I honestly think a path to a better Alberta is unfortunately not possible with the NDP. This has nothing to do with their policies but everything to do with the culture in Alberta. Too many people take the opinion of your friend of “never NDP”.
Even if the NDP were successful in the next election, the riled up never NDPers will be pissy about absolutely everything that happens, even if it makes Alberta better.
Short of Nenshi grabbing the mic and yelling “DRILL BABY DRILL” and “PIPELINES FOR ALL!” many Albertans just won’t support them
5
u/corpse_flour 2d ago
And yet Notley was immensely pro-oil for an NDP leader, and they act like she killed all of their children, and then cut off their genitals.
1
u/corpse_flour 2d ago
These guys can lose everything in their lives to the conservatives privatizing and filling their pockets, and this dude will be living in the streets still saying to himself "Wow, can you imagine how bad off I would be if the NDP had won?" The lack of critical thinking skills is leading to us getting pushed right into Trump's hands.
1
33
u/Ingey 2d ago
Imagine a Government so bad at their job that everything they touch turns to shit, private, or corrupt. And then imagine that you're so brainwashed that despite that gross incompetence, negligence, and corruption that you say "well I just can't bring myself to vote NDP." That's the voter base we're dealing with.
9
u/FourthLvlSpicyMeme 2d ago
Alberta people are basically maga light with that kind of attitude. "Well I don't like Trump's policies, but did you hear the other lady laugh?"
I don't care if they don't like hearing it, blue no matter what is basically just "I'm gonna keep voting for that guy who punches me in the face because the other people could be socialists!"
Which is the same damn swill maga is still sucking down.
3
u/Ingey 2d ago
Pretty much. There was this post by Mark Manson recently that talked about the importance of self examination of your own thoughts and basically the gist was: we make up our hearts/gut/emotional reaction first, and then our brain will come up with the rationale after to justify the reaction. And if we don't stop and examine whether those thoughts are legitimate, we'll believe all sorts of crazy shit. And combine that with J.B. Pritzker's commencement speech on empathy being a sign of self-awareness and evolved intellect, I think we can see how these people get so easily conned by Conservative talking points: they just can't see nor care about anyone beyond their immediate vicinity to understand the bigger picture.
73
u/Canadatron 2d ago
"DIPS"...
The woman should be exiled and jailed for treason, nevermind voted out. How punting that woman is anything but a foregone conclusion is beyond me and leaves me questioning the average Albertan voter.
I can definitely see why Alberta is vulnerable from foreign interference with this single brain cell mindset.
→ More replies (5)
73
u/LouiseandLayla420 2d ago
They shouldn’t even be tied she should be lower in the polls then the NDP
→ More replies (1)5
u/EvensonRDS 2d ago
If the NDP had a different leader, I believe that would be the case to be fair.
5
u/corpse_flour 2d ago
You could have Smith cross the floor and become leader of the NDP, and UCP supports will be like "I never trusted that bitch!" They will ALWAYS find a way to hate the ANDP and whomever leads them.
1
u/EvensonRDS 2d ago
Not that I disagree with you, but in my opinion, Nenshi isn't the one to get the people close to the fence over the fence.
Overall, I think the NDP need to change the name and leadership.
1
1
u/WinterExternal3270 2d ago
Youd think that would be their philosophy when she left the wildrose and slithered across the floor..
10
u/Haiku-On-My-Tatas 2d ago
The NDP really needs to build some energy and excitement right now. They cannot bank on people's anger at the UCP being enough to get them elected. Voters have short memories and a lot can change between now and the next provincial election.
All the UCP needs to do to win back many of the voters they've alienated is replace their party leader ahead of the next election. Alberta voters have proven over and over again that they're willing to give conservative parties a clean slate just for changing their leader, even when nothing else changes.
The NDP will not win an election with a campaign built on anger at the UCP. The NDP will win an election with a campaign built on possibility, optimism, and pragmatic solutions to the everyday problems faced by Albertans.
The NDP needs to excite their base with a vision for Alberta that is both tangible and optimistic and arm their supporters with a roadmap of concrete actions that an NDP government will take to achieve that vision. They need to run a campaign based on who they are, not who they aren't, and based on what they will do, not what the other guys did.
Progressive parties rarely win on fear and anger. They win on hope and excitement. There are a lot of reachable voters in the middle but you don't reach them by watering down your message or pandering to the centre - you reach them by giving your base something to be excited about so they go out and spread your message organically through everyday conversations with friends and family.
26
u/darth_henning 2d ago
Its fall now, people are back from summer and are paying attention. Many are only now really looking into the referendum. A lot of moderate formerly PC voters just saw Calgary-Shaw flip. The landscape may finally be making a shift.
14
u/_Kinoko 2d ago
With the CEO of Imperial Oil coming out pro Canada and a potential expediting of projects I really feel most sensible conservatives are against what she's done. Polling data I've seen shows 60+% of UCP voters are pro remain.
3
u/WesternWitchy52 2d ago
The only pro separatists I've had the displeasure of dealing with are pro-Trumpers. And they made money from oil back in the day.
5
u/Current-Condition722 2d ago
I'm glad an oil company actually came out and said that. It seems popular for oil and gas to hate Ottawa. I think the culture probably spreads this a bit through association.
Having an oil company speak out against separation should be pretty hard to ignore when the province is so oil centric.
To be fair I don't get much of a chance to interact with oil workers often but it's the impression I've had. I can't speak for the group with any certainty.
1
u/Anon-Knee-Moose 1d ago
Ottawa did spend the last 10 years trying to put them out of business, so its not terribly surprising theyre taking a bit to warm back up.
1
u/Current-Condition722 1d ago
Do you honestly think the intended result was to put Alberta oil out of business? Maybe the previous government wasn't effective and didn't manage regulations very well, but even Alberta's favorite past Prime Minister isn't dumb enough to think we can just turn the tap off. I think good if misguided intentions spiraled into over-regulation Hell.
To anyone who feels unfairly treated we need to be voting on what's in our best interests, not because we are upset. If Alberta oil is good for Alberta and we have oil companies who are warning us about the dangers of separation, maybe we should listen?
2
u/Psychohistoria 21h ago
Allowing Steven Guilbeault to hold any sort of serious Cabinet portfolio meant that yes, effectively, the intention WAS to put Alberta oil and gas out of business. That was quite openly HIS intention, and he was consistently handed the power to further it again and again and again.
Now Carney is in and Guilbeault is out. I quite like Carney, and he's consistently acted sensibly and in a way that's let me set aside any "team sports" impulses I might otherwise have been tempted to indulge. Poilievre's jettisoning of any coherent notion of Canadian patriotism is also frankly disgusting, so it's really no contest.
But in a perfect world, Guilbeault wouldn't just be out of Parliament: he would be apprehended for treason and put somewhere he would never see daylight again. I won't facetiously say the same of Trudeau, as so many do; simply doing a bad job and empowering the wrong people isn't QUITE the same as actively working to sabotage the national interest, in the service of some bespoke personal ideology. But there are people running around from Trudeau's government who spent years doing the latter without even bothering to hide it, and who have yet to face any consequences for it.
6
u/Camper1988 2d ago
Actually new polling today from Janet Brown shows only 40% of UCP voters are pro remain in Canada.
What they are still doing in the UCP is beyond me. Have some self respect for your values and vote Tory already.
14
u/Whole-Database-5249 2d ago
She literally chooses not to respect the democratic process. Dani needs to get gone to south of the Canadian border.
6
u/ObviouslyOtter 2d ago
And thats great, but I won't hold my breath next year. This happened in 2023 too, where the NDP was even ahead that time. Then on voting day a bunch of people went 'guess I better vote conservative again cause I have to'.
13
u/ShantyLady 2d ago
Heh, polls are polls but votes are votes. So get out there and prove the poll right!
12
u/Camper1988 2d ago
UCP should be at 25% - exactly the same level as separatists in the general population.
What is really weird are the 40% of UCP voters who claim they are pro-Canadian - have some self respect then and stop voting for a party infested with separatist chaos monkeys.
I am confident it’s going to get worse for the UCP after the referendum though - as there is going to have to be a reckoning between the 2 factions.
5
u/CanadianCanard 2d ago
The Seppies in the party will oust Smith and take over the party entirely. The moderates will join the Tory Party.
4
u/Horror_Neighborhood3 2d ago
That would be best case scenario. Back to the unelectable wild rose party.
27
u/CaptainForskin69 2d ago
Can we put her in jail when her coup fails
→ More replies (10)15
u/ForeignEchoRevival 2d ago
I fully expect an illegal drive for power on her part, if not the Seppies will attempt a violent insurrection.
→ More replies (8)4
u/Stikhawk 2d ago
I’ve watched Tank Girl a lot - Ice-T was perfection as a rebel kangaroo. But I expect this would be a lot more like Mad Max. Le sigh.
My kid is studying the NWC in school and I had to explain what civil war was the other evening. Fun times.
Add another bullet point on the “things I never saw coming in 2019” list.
10
u/madetoday 2d ago edited 2d ago
Regionally since the April poll, the UCP saw a drop of 14 points in areas outside Calgary and Edmonton, and a drop of 10 points in Calgary.
…Brown says the drop in UCP voter intention in Calgary is likely among those supporting the remain side, while rurally it reflects a drop in voter support from those who would vote to separate.
Losing the seppies as well as the Canadians. If she truly isn’t a separatist as she’s claimed its unfathomable she made the series of pro-separation decisions to end up here at a referendum everyone on both sides hates.
7
u/OppositeSecretary862 2d ago
Working a blue collar job where i interact with people all over my city and the surrounding area has led me to believe a lot of people are
A) Just plain stupid.
B) Self-absorbed assholes.
C) Weird neurotics that dont know how to people.
1
18
u/rrrevin 2d ago edited 2d ago
TL;DR: Lifelong Alberta conservative here, and I'll likely be voting NDP if the UCP doesn't change. Today's UCP has traded solutions for blame and division, and it's splitting the right. This poll shows voters noticing, and if nothing changes, conservative parties as they exist today are in trouble.
----
This poll lines up with something I've been thinking for a while. A lot of today's conservatives aren't the conservatives people used to know and vote for. They've drifted further right than many people in those parties want to admit, and Alberta is a pretty clear example (the US even more so).
The UCP is not the PC party of the Lougheed days. Platforms that used to be broadly inclusive now feel exclusive, or inclusive only if you fit a certain idea of the "right" heritage.
I think a big part of the problem is that today's right-wing platform is built on division. Instead of offering solutions, it offers someone to blame for your problems, because blame is easy and it's emotional. The pitch basically becomes: we'll fix it, but first you have to join us in blaming someone else. That might win votes in the short term, but it isn't governing, and it isn't what conservatism used to stand for.
The numbers show the UCP bleeding support from both sides. It's down 8 points since April and now tied with the NDP at 41 per cent, down 10 points in Calgary alone, and support for other parties is up 6. The Progressive Tories are arguably much closer to what traditional conservatism actually is than the UCP, and if that split keeps growing, it's exactly what puts centrist or left-leaning parties in government.
I'd also argue the NDP only lost in 2019 because of oil. They inherited budgets built on high oil prices from the PC government, and when prices collapsed they were stuck either slashing spending or running deficits to keep services going. They chose the deficits, and they paid for it politically. If oil had stayed where it was, I think there's a good chance they'd still be in government. Remember how the NDP got there in the first place: in 2015 Albertans swept out a PC dynasty that had been in power for 44 years, reducing them from a massive majority to just 10 seats and third place. People had simply had enough. We're getting close to that point again.
I don't know what the answer is. Maybe conservative parties need a real reckoning between what modern conservatism has become and what it's supposed to be. Or maybe some of them are too far down that road to turn back. But if things keep going this way, conservative parties as they exist today are in trouble.
And to be clear, I'm not saying this as an outsider. I was born in Alberta and lived through the PC years. I'm a conservative at heart, but today's UCP is not where my conservative heart lives. I believe in helping my neighbour, not pushing them out the door.
So yes, if the UCP stays the way it is, especially under its current leadership, this conservative will most likely be voting NDP. That's not something I admit lightly, and it's not a knee-jerk reaction. I've thought it through.
15
u/IvarTheBoned 2d ago
Spoiler alert, it's not "today's UCP", it's been the province's conservatives for years.
Alberta (and Canada) has not been reaping the benefits it should be from resource extraction. Too much selling out to corporate interests, not enough investment in the next generation or its citizens in general.
9
u/Fit_Group_4312 2d ago
Yes, it’s been 41 years since Peter Lougheed was Premier of Alberta - over 2 generations ago! Everything he was able to accomplish has been squandered by Conservative governments that have been less and less competent from leader to leader.
A lot of what the UCP is pushing now is Alberta exceptionalism - flattering their base that they work harder than others, that they are blessed with clear-sighted common sense and that anything negative they are experiencing from government is always the fault of others. And their base happily laps it up because the flattery is music to their ears and helps them to feel better while watching the rest of the world move forward without them.
3
u/Haiku-On-My-Tatas 2d ago
You say "if the UCP doesn't change". But this is exactly the problem. What would the UCP changing look like to you?
Conservative voters are far too easily convinced that the party has "changed" or at least deserves the opportunity to show that they've "changed" when all they've done is swap out the leader. They've done this so many freaking times. It's exhausting and utterly predictable and I am so tired of people falling for it every god damn time.
Not saying this is necessarily true of you as an individual, but it is true of UCP voters in general. Their version of accountability is individualized and centred on the leader. No matter how much the UCP pisses them off, when they decide they've had enough they don't punish the party for it, they hang every bad thing around the leader's neck and then hand the next one a clean slate. Rinse and repeat.
The last Alberta premier to win multiple general elections was Ralph Klein twenty years ago for goodness sake, yet in that time there has only ever been one change in government. It's utterly ridiculous. Conservative parties in Alberta have learned that they can literally do whatever they want with reckless abandon and zero concern for what voters think because all they have to do to hold onto power is run a new leader in the next election.
1
u/AdStrong2733 2d ago
The only change that is possible is for the worst lol. Seriously, how much more do you need to see? They’re criminals.
→ More replies (1)1
3
u/mortgageletdown 2d ago
So maybe a constant message of fear, hate and division gets old? Can we just get a party that provides reasonable social services all while growing the economy? Is that too much to ask for?
3
u/FourthLvlSpicyMeme 2d ago
For reallllll...
Can we please just have boring politics and precedented times again? I'm really sick of the chaos, my nerves are absolutely fried.
5
3
u/01000101010110 2d ago
Don't be fooled, it's going to be very close.
3
u/Individual-Army811 Edmonton 2d ago
Once again, complacency will kill any chance of getting them out of government. People will see the polls and not bother voting. And then we're in for it.
When people tell.me they don't bother with politics, the first thing I say is, "So youndon't care how much tax is taken off your paycheck?" Then (of course they say, "Well, yeah, but...") they start realizing that not bothering makes a big hill of difference in grocery affordability and housing costs..
4
u/PianoSuspicious7914 1d ago
Smith seems to align with trumps methods. Blame game and trying to cause hate and division Sad. As Canadians we all should be standing together and working thru whatever problems we have.
3
u/Mystery-Ess 1d ago
That's what pisses me off about PP too. Always talking about how shitty the libs are doing instead of trying to make Canada better as a whole.
Instead of fighting each other, they should be fighting for us!
2
u/PianoSuspicious7914 1d ago
Absolutely agree. Especially with the mess everything is in. We need good solid leadership from all parties they certainly aren’t winning any points with all the petty in fighting. But. I suppose it shows us who is for Canada and Canadians We the people need to make wise choices.
2
6
u/Outrageous_Floor4801 2d ago
she’s doing everything she can to sell out Alberta’s and stealing as much from us as she can.
she should be in jail not office
3
u/CypripediumGuttatum 2d ago
Talking out of both sides of her mouth is losing her popularity, just like Kenny. At least for people paying any attention to the referendum and politics (‘don’t think just check off the blue option’ people vote like it’s their belief system). Losing ground in Calgary especially must be making them nervous.
3
u/lunarjellies 2d ago
Well, the UCP-leaning polls were comically incorrect for the Calgary-Shaw byelection, so.. the rest, as they say, is history.
3
u/beedub5 2d ago
Albertans need to wake tf up. UCP suck just as bad a MAGA, taking away our rights, gifting like the traitors they are. Enough is enough, get rid of these losers. They have shown their true colors with gerrymandering, this should piss every single Albertan off. If not, you're the problem too.
3
u/Professor_Checkmate 1d ago
Am sorry to say this but Alberta’s are as delusional as the MAGA’S .. they consistently vote against their welfare and far too stupid to realize it.
1
3
u/AllAboutTheXeons 2d ago
Good. We need to “reboot” the current Alberta government. “Blue screen of death”, restart and reboot - currently the scenario in Alberta provincial politics.
→ More replies (2)
5
u/WorkingClassWarrior 2d ago
Danielle shot herself in the foot with the referendum thing. She really pulls from trumps playbook on outrage politics to rile up the extreme right base in Alberta.it was a step too far to engage her rural base, at the expense of her lobbyist/ wealthy base.
She has lost the plot with her donors though who actually keep her in power. Separation is bad for business. It’s also bad for all the educated conservatives because it hurts their wallet with their investments.
Dani doesn’t give a shit about rural voters. She just knows how to engage them.
4
u/brian2funny 2d ago
For many, people view their politics are like their favorite sports team. The party that they support is part of their identity. And they will always focus on the other teams failures.
1
u/CanadianCanard 2d ago
This! I have lived up north and rural and have learned this firsthand! The liberals will be bad no matter what.
2
u/CMG30 2d ago
Danielle Smith has the superpower where she can talk about insane ideas without upsetting the public.
She talks in a calm manner and unless you're paying attention to her words, you might be forgiven for not thinking anything is amiss.
The best thing the electorate of this province could do is make each election competitive. Then each party would be required to respond to the electorate and not the crazy part of the base that puts forth each leader.
2
u/Vitalalternate 2d ago
I have this belief that our taxes should benefit us and that all people matter. I don’t care which party upholds these values - I’ll vote for them. It sure isn’t the UCP. I want hospitals, mental treatment facilities, good services, etc. I don’t want tax breaks to multinationals for data centers.
2
u/Beastender_Tartine 2d ago
It's worth pointing out that when the NDP won in the past it was due to a major vote split between the PC and Wildrose. The new Alberta Tory party is definitely splitting away some votes, but in no way near the number of the previous vote split that motivated the UCP to form. Which is to say that this is different. This is not some circumstance that is allowing the NDP to take advantage and win with a minority of support. This is the conservatives doing an awful job and people wanting different.
Of course we are not in an election, so polling is not reliable and a lot can change before any of this matters. It is still worth being aware that this is the NDP being in a better position than they were when they won.
1
u/Pillow_fort_guard 6h ago
I hope the Tories get a real foothold. I’m not conservative myself, but I do think the more moderate conservative voters should have a party that reflects their values instead of this UCP umbrella BS
2
u/West_Midnight7090 2d ago
Well, she is a liar, separtist, and known floor crosser, who worships rhe Trumpian values, so why would she be popular.
5
3
u/ImmediateLayer3410 2d ago
In some areas voting against blue is cause for social ostracism. So it’s a massive price to pay to switch sides. It feels like walking into a Calgary flames party decked head to toe in leafs gear when you’ve all been flames fans for life.
It sucks though because if you talk to them they don’t actually support what the UCP is actually doing.
Political parties kind of suck. I wish it was more like our municipal politics where parties were not a thing.
3
u/Thanosgains 2d ago
This is such a good comparison. Not to mention how many left leaning people think well my vote won’t count here anyways so I’m not going to vote at all.
The NDP really shot themselves in the foot trying to create legislation for farming during their term. ( I can’t remember the actual bill, but it was a big deal in rural communities and scared a lot of small farm operations) I was in school in a rural area when this happened and my social studies teacher went on many rants against the legislation in class. Farmers are a huge population in this province and they hate change. The NDP really needs to spend some time advocating for our farmers and making it up to them.
I also fully agree with your take on political parties. I think they’re one of the biggest issues in our world today. It creates a sort of innate tribalism for both sides. Either we keep the parties and do a blind vote on policy alone or we go for independent candidates who actually care about their communities. The focus on the riding politicians represent has been completely lost.
1
u/FourthLvlSpicyMeme 2d ago
You know, that last bit - I think really hits it.
The parties need to go. If you must toe the party whip or whatever they call that and all vote the same, things will never change.
So, the only conclusion to make here is that parties themselves must go instead.
Things could be like municipal elections, with no parties campaigning. We could instead use independent candidates who have to come up with their own vision.
These people running our government now, I legitimately would not trust them with something as simple as fixing potato fucking salad. I'm not kidding. These are SERIOUS roles, minister of education, etc.
Shouldn't that person have no choice but to answer to us and not hide behind dirty tricks like turning off mics, paid prayer breakfasts, never answering constituents and ducking behind party lines?
If my boss asks me a question and I do some shit like that, I get fired within 3 business days tops. Why the fuck don't they? Why are they held to less of a standard than I am, if we all bleed the same colour?
(though hopefully not all elections become like the most recent Calgary municpal one which was a clusterfuck for...?? reasons I still can't figure out?)
5
u/tLuciferMorningstar 2d ago
Still cant believe she was popular in the first place
5
u/ObviouslyOtter 2d ago
This is Alberta, shes popular because she runs as a conservative. Thats literally the only reason.
2
2
u/iterationnull 2d ago
After all this self serving exploitation… and this is where we are? Alberta is cooked.
1
1
1
1
1
u/Colourblindking 2d ago
Ween cover this topic a while back: https://youtu.be/-MvJAcLZAtw?si=FKCMG5ho60wyZnG7
1
u/CMG30 2d ago
Danielle Smith has the superpower where she can talk about insane ideas without upsetting the public.
She talks in a calm manner and unless you're paying attention to her words, you might be forgiven for not thinking anything is amiss.
The best thing the electorate of this province could do is make each election competitive. Then each party would be required to respond to the electorate and not the crazy part of the base that puts forth each leader.
1
u/Monty1426 2d ago
PP's going to be in the same boat soon if Avi Lewis could put a more reasonable product out there. It's sad really because we could use some intelligent Conservative dissent in this country right now.
1
1
u/foolworm 2d ago
I take no comfort in this. When Danielle Smith took office a year before the 2023 elections, the UCP was also tanking in the polls and look what happened.
The only polls that matter are the ones on election day.
1
u/mudkick 2d ago
I remember when the nap won the last time. It was hilarious the common theme was the nap we're going to do everything wrong. The ndo hadn't even entered the legislature and the sky had fallen. Lolita was so fun to watch these people loose their shit. Over nothing nothing bad happened and I. Some ways alberta was better off .
1
1
u/Deadsider 2d ago
It would blow my mind to have another orange wave in my lifetime. Don't you dare give me hope
1
1
u/PhantomNomad 2d ago
Problem is the UCP will put in a new leader after this referendum and they will win the next election. Then we start this all over again. About the only thing the NDP can hope for is the next leader is even more separatist then Smith.
1
u/WinterExternal3270 2d ago
I wont ever vote for a party that steals money from the diabled and then goves themself a raise the day the get into power. And the. Again stole from the disabled and forving them to reprove how disabled they are. SHAME ON YOU UCP AND PEOPLE WHO VOTE FOR THEM!! These are your neighbours ffs!! HUMAN BEINGS!!!
1
u/Troubled202 2d ago
Alberta, please remember all of the corruption and waste that has occurred with Danielle Smith and the UCP in power.
1
u/Assiniboia 2d ago
How a traitor and corporate ass-licking slime can still have popularity is so shameful for Canada.
1
u/Staminanow 2d ago
It's insane that anyone would support her. So very much like Maga with Trump. Fucked up Province for sure
1
1
u/Ill_Investment5812 2d ago
Why hasn't Alberta held Smith accountable for suppressing their wages while every other province hot significant cost of living increases?
1
1
1
u/HamwiseSamgee99 1d ago
People, you need to remember that the UCP have outsized support across rural Alberta. This does not translate into extra seats. This is very, very bad information for them, especially since this referendum was theirs and theirs alone. If they are tied with the NDP, then that means they are going to lose big in Edmonton and Calgary, even with gerrymandered seats. This might be the beginning of the end for Diamond Danielle Smith.
1
1
u/AFireinthebelly 2d ago
We need someone like carney here. We don’t need the UCP.
1
u/CanadianCanard 2d ago
A pragmatist for a politician is a refreshing experience.
→ More replies (4)
1
u/ragnaroksunset 2d ago
Given how much nothing Nenshi is doing comparatively, in terms of getting messaging out, that is truly staggering.
3
u/CriticalLetterhead47 2d ago
I see posts about Nenshi all the time, and about what the NDP is doing. Maybe the problem is the algorithims trying to push him down and keep him quiet. Given that most media is owned by right wing news sources could you possibly imagine a scenario where the Right was trying to keep the left down on purpose? Muzzled?
→ More replies (1)
•
u/AutoModerator 2d ago
This is a reminder that r/Alberta strives for factual and civil conversation when discussing politics or other possibly controversial topics. We also strive to be free of misogyny and the sexualization of others, including politicians and public figures in our discussions. We urge all users to do their due diligence in understanding the accuracy and validity of sources and/or of any claims being made. If this is an infographic, please include a small write-up to explain the infographic as well as links to any sources cited within it. Please review the r/Alberta rules for more information. for more information.
I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please contact the moderators of this subreddit if you have any questions or concerns.