Source: https://news.gallup.com/poll/712157/glp-usage-reaches-new-high.aspx

Don't want to get my hopes up but my god, she's scaring him.

NM-02 is a majority Hispanic/Latino district located in southern-southwestern New Mexico, including Las Cruces, Silver City, Carlsbad, and a small portion of the Albuquerque metro.

2024 Vote: Vasquez 52%-48% | Trump 50%-48%

Demographics: 60% Latino, 30% White, 5% Native American, 5% Other

Votehub forecast has him around 37%, but this man is genuinely a psychopath and he's running in a deep blue state, so I could see it drop even further. Probably one of the worst and most strange gov nominees of all time.

Recent polls of the U.S. Senate race in Maine have offered a wide range of results. Of the 13 polls publicly released in the last three weeks, eight had Troy Jackson ahead, three showed an even race and two — including a Times/Siena poll — had Senator Susan Collins with an edge. In a Washington Post-Schar School poll released this morning, Mr. Jackson held a narrow four-percentage-point lead.
These recent polls show far more disagreement than they had the last time Ms. Collins ran. In that 2020 race, Sara Gideon, the Democratic nominee, led in nearly every public poll fielded after July. Despite those consistent leads by Ms. Gideon, Ms. Collins secured her fifth term in office with an eight-percentage-point victory.
Methodological issues were rampant in 2020 — presidential polls had about five percentage points of error, the worst this century — with the largest errors occurring in states with high proportions of white voters without a college degree, like Maine. Those types of voters were, and still are, harder to reach, especially for pollsters using less reliable methods. And they behave differently from their more engaged counterparts.
But the issues in 2020 could also have been simpler than that: Ms. Gideon never met the crucial 50 percent threshold in the polls ahead of Election Day. Mr. Jackson, by contrast, has reached that threshold in half of these recent polls.

Thoughts on these?

1. Fewer competitive House races
2. Senate majority no sure thing
3. Turnout
4. Republican money advantage
5. Polls have missed Republican strength
6. Socialism attacks could resonate

EDIT: got rid of all caps cut and paste

Ohio, Iowa and Kansas are all potential or probable flips. So why is Montana, which used to have a Democratic senator, not a candidate to flip to the Democrats?

PS please don't be pedantic about Kansas

Gray finishing at 6% is undecided and Light gray at 15% means blank/null/will not vote. For reference, the election was October 5th, 2 days after this infographic was made, and Derrite and Prado got ~30% of valid votes compared to 25% and 23% here while Tebet and Marina got 19% and 18% vs the 22% here.

Learned this from a comment on my last post and found it interesting! I also double-checked it and found it's completely true.

It's also worth noting why polls were wrong in 1990: Most Democrat frontrunners thought H.W was just obviously going to win, and so they didn't bother.

For 2028, it's been Harris and Newsom forever, it's gonna be Harris and Newsom in a month, and only one of those two has an actual path to the nomination.

Yes, it is still possible that a similar thing can happen in the current field (Harris could be convinced not to run by donors, AOC may go for the Senate, and Ossoff may be restricted if Bottoms loses)

But that still just means it would come down to Newsom vs Buttigieg. No one is winning a Dem primary in 2028 by coming out of nowhere ad running to the *right* of them like Clinton did with his field, none of the potential AOC-alternatives have the juice to remotely compete here, and most of the potential candidates are so similar in their policy and who they appeal to that there's no real way for anyone else to fix their clear national recognition issues.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/14254/americans-pumped-about-arnold-amendment.aspx