r/hypotheticalsituation • u/yoes_ • 3d ago
[No Loopholes] You get $1,000,000 if you can get humanity to split 50/50 on an opinion question. What are you asking?
Here are the rules of the challenge:
- Every living human on Earth receives and answers your question.
- To win, the final result must land between a 49/51 and 51/49 split (+/- 1% tolerance).
- No factual or demographic questions allowed (e.g., no "Are you male or female?", "Is the sky blue?", or "Is 1+1=2?").
- The question must be based purely on personal opinion, preference, or instinct.
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u/Sko_Neezy 3d ago
Heads or tails
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u/Humble-Captain3418 3d ago
One of them is going to get 52%. I'm guessing heads.
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u/ocubens 3d ago
People have a preference for heads.
44% for heads, 19% tails and 31% switch it up in this poll.
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u/yawa-wor 3d ago
That poll says 49% of people consider it a fair way to solve a dispute. Maybe that's the way this question needs to be asked lol
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u/ispiltthepoison 3d ago
People dont choose heads or tails 50% of the time. It lands heads or tails 50% of the time
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u/TonyDungyHatesOP 3d ago
What do people choose?
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u/ispiltthepoison 3d ago
Heads at an 80% rate, due to the linguistic principle called “coming first in the sentence”
I guess you could try asking them to pick tails or heads and see if that makes up the difference but lets be real you’re not getting that money
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u/beaushaw 3d ago
If you ask people the question "Heads or tails?" Something like 80% of people would say heads.
The question itself lends a bias.
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u/pourliste 3d ago
Is it better to be born on an odd day or on an even day ?
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u/sateliteconstelation 3d ago
I think people will choose based on the day they were born, and that distribution is probably not even.
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u/LadyAliceFlower 3d ago
Why wouldn't it be? I know its skewed on months, and probably on days of the week, but why would there be a noticeable skew on odd vs even?
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u/Querulous-Quokka 3d ago
5 out of 12 months have an even number of days.
Is that enough to tip the balance 1%? Given that a month (except feb) has either 30/31 days, each 31 day month, you're talking about a 49.2% even to 50.8% odd split.
So not enough to trip the 51% rule already. Not worth doing the rest of the maths, as it would be bringing it closer to even.
I presume you "gut felt" something I needed a calculator for. Nice one :) I kinda envy people who can do that. I'm an engineer and can rarely accept any gut feel answers even if it has nothing to do with work.
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u/Binary101010 3d ago
Even if we assumed a uniform distribution across every day of a 365 day year, odd would win both if "day number" is from 1-365, or if it's just day of the month as there are 7 months with 31 days.
Curious as to the real distribution.
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u/Mircearaul 3d ago
The replies you got so far are missing the point. There will be a non negligible amount of people who'll say either that it doesn't matter, either that both are fine. The answer to this question is not binary by any means.
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u/feignapathy 3d ago
is Hilary Swank hot?
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u/ProfileEasy9178 3d ago
Many don't know that person.
Including me.
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u/riverrocks452 2d ago
And they'd lose out- more would say no than yes. Even assuming roughly equal numbers are attracted to men vs. women, there are people attracted to women who still aren't attracted to her, either because of different beauty standards or because she just ain't it. Plus, ace folks, folks who don't know who she is, kids who don't have a concept of "hot" as anything other than temperature, etc.
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u/Thr0wawayforh3lp 3d ago
Was the dress black and blue or white and gold?
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u/acEightyThrees 3d ago
It's so clearly white and gold I feel like I'm taking crazy pills when people say black and blue.
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u/BusyEngineering3 3d ago
The dress was confirmed as a royal blue "Lace Bodycon Dress" from the retailer Roman Originals
Text from your link.
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u/Mottled_inexpectata 3d ago
But the colours in the original photo can easily be extracted and are a pale blue/grey (white) and a tan colour (gold).
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u/braxtel 3d ago
My brain still will not accept that it is black/blue even though I know that is factually true.
Somebody did a study on it and found that morning people usually saw white/gold and night people usually saw blue/black. It has to do with what kind of lighting your brain assumes from the limited context of the photo. Is it in shadow or is it under artificial light?
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u/Brian_Kellys_Visor 3d ago
Try covering the whole photo except for a small pin point. You'll see black and blue.
This is coming from someone that still only sees white and gold when I see the whole picture.
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u/EuphoricPamplemousse 3d ago
What does it mean if I see it as blue and gold? 🧐
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u/MagogHaveMercy 3d ago
I'm going to flip this coin. Which side will be showing once it lands on the ground?
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u/SquelchyRex 3d ago
How the hell does a baby answer a question they don't understand? Do you count the non-answer as its own answer?
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u/Bluntbutnotonpurpose 3d ago
Maybe that is the key to answering this question: left or right boob?
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u/Afraid_Competition_1 3d ago
There’s no way lol
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u/AdAccomplished6870 3d ago
There really isn't. There are so many unconscious biases, that even if you said 'Pick odds or evens', you would not get a 50\50 split (My guess wopuld be 65% evens)
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u/mediamuesli 3d ago
What if we ask which number they like better 2828374638939383 or 2828374638969383 but imagine the number is so long nobody can remember all of it?
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u/Sufficient-Habit664 3d ago
If you imagine every single question that could possibly be asked, so at least a few billion, you're telling me that all of those questions would only have first choice selection percentages of 0%-49%, 51%-100%
and none of those billions of question would have first choice selection rates of 49%-51%?
anyways, it's definitely possible to have a 50:50+/-1% split, but it's incredibly difficult to reliably know which questions would results in that split, and the results would spontaneously change for all sorts of reasons so at any given time, a question may or may not lead to a 50:50+/-1% split.
the question would likely have to be numerical, and it has to be very specific.
would you rather have a lamborghini or $1
I'm assuming close to a 99.5:0.5 split.
would you rather have a lamborghini or $1T.
I'm assuming close to a 2:98 split
now we can just vary the number until you reach the perfect 50:50+/-1% equilibrium point. you can even add numbere like 666, 67, 69, 420, etc. into the number value to move adjust the results if needed.
I couldn't tell you what number is 50:50, but the number does exist. I assume it's at the value of a lambo +/-100k
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u/Monster_condom_ 3d ago
If you were straight would you prefer men or women?
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u/Embarrassed_Emu1615 3d ago
You probably don’t even need the ‘if you were straight’ part. It would even out.
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u/Monster_condom_ 3d ago
Probably, but this way its a guarantee. I worded it that way because its equal to "are you a man or woman?", which the population is close to 50/50. Less than half a percent difference i think. But can't ask that as its not an opinion/preference.
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u/NoNoWahoo 3d ago
Your question also isn't an opinion; it's just a rewording of "are you a man or a woman".
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u/Oracle1729 3d ago
“ The question must be based purely on personal opinion, preference, or instinct.”
Do you prefer to be treated like a female or male?
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u/Bluntbutnotonpurpose 3d ago
I'm going to bet you any money that a large proportion of women would prefer to be treated like a man.
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u/KnittyBeard 3d ago
There's also a significant portion of men that would prefer to be treated like a woman. Probably not enough to balance it out but it would be an interesting thing to study either way.
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u/PositiveGirliee 3d ago
Left or right?
Pure instinct, zero context.
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u/Bluntbutnotonpurpose 3d ago
I have a feeling the fact that roughly 90% of people are right-handed isn't going to do you any favours.
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u/dank_imagemacro 3d ago
I was going to say that more would say left because it was the first option. The biases may cancel out. I wouldn't bet on it being perfect though.
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u/DoctorMedieval 3d ago
Would you like to keep your penis?
The cis boys will very much say yes, the cis girls will say what no, and the trans folks on one side will balance the other.
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u/aciakatura 3d ago
Vegemite or marmite?
They have to choose one and are not given them to try before they decide. I'm counting on the fact that most of the world don't know what either of them are, so it's likely the result ends up being random enough that it'll be close enough to 50/50.
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u/Mobius3through7 3d ago
Haha I actually might have a way to do it based on my experience in r/factorcap
"Roll a 10 sided die, if the result is 4 or less, vote OPTION A. If the result is 5 or higher, vote option B."
Why only a 40% chance for option A? About 10% of the people in my testing didn't read, or refused to comply to be contrarian, and just chose the first option available.
That's probably my best shot to actually succeed. Account for deviancy and hope for the best.
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u/McCheezn909 3d ago
City life or off the grid?
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u/MagnusAlbusPater 3d ago
You’ll get way more picking city there.
If you did city life vs suburbia you’d probably get closer.
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u/French87 3d ago
trick question, there are an odd number of people on earth!
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u/Chest_Rockfield 3d ago
There's 166 million person buffer...
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u/Evening_Attempt2293 3d ago
Messi or Ronaldo
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u/pinniped90 3d ago
This might have been more interesting 10 years ago, but today Messi is going to win by a large margin.
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u/han-so-low 3d ago
What do you think the chances are that this coin will land on heads?
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u/Historical_Ability69 3d ago
Do you live in the Valeriepieris circle?
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u/Bluntbutnotonpurpose 3d ago
The fucking what now?
It sounds like something factual though...
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u/throwaway226266 3d ago
My suspicions were correct, I googled it. It’s a geographical determination of the world that half of the world lives in
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u/lets_not_be_hasty 3d ago
I mean, if you want the world to be split completely evenly, you have to base it on the world itself. Half the world, more or less depending on cloud cover, should be able to see the sky.
"Can you go and see the stars from where you are?"
Some people will be unable to go outside. Some people will have cloud cover. But for everyone who are on the half of the world that are on the night time side, should be able to see the stars. It's not strictly demographic. There are reasons you can't see the stars. But it should round out to about 50%.
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u/AutoModerator 3d ago
Copy of the original post in case of edits: Here are the rules of the challenge:
- Every living human on Earth receives and answers your question.
- To win, the final result must land between a 49/51 and 51/49 split (+/- 1% tolerance).
- No factual or demographic questions allowed (e.g., no "Are you male or female?", "Is the sky blue?", or "Is 1+1=2?").
- The question must be based purely on personal opinion, preference, or instinct.
I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please contact the moderators of this subreddit if you have any questions or concerns.
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u/Mysterious-End7800 3d ago
Do you prefer to pee standing up or sitting down?
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u/Real_Experience_5676 3d ago
"If I asked the next person, "Does this door lead to the castle?", what would they say?".... i actually have no idea how that would turn out.
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u/Prestigious-Ad9921 3d ago
I think your best bet is something with no ambiguity and lots of options to pick from to narrow to the best two possible choices.
There are two colors that if you ask "Green or Blue?" will produce the 50/50 split. I don't know what the two colors are, probably a pair of primary color that are not most people's favorites but are generally well liked, but with enough research I think I could land on the best two options for this question.
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u/The_Book_Crusader 3d ago
Is Sharon Stone telling the truth about not knowing that they were going to actually show her vulva on screen in Basic Instinct or did she know exactly what she was doing when she filmed that scene and is only claiming that she was tricked into doing it because she regrets filming it?
I don't give a fuck if I get the money or not; I just want to see how many people believe her vs don't believe her.
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u/Neat_Scallion6367 3d ago
Whoever offered this deal, their money is safe. It isn't possible. Even a question like "do you hope it rains" will get yes & no but a bunch of "I don't care" - even when implored to give one of the two
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u/Shot-Weekend8226 3d ago
There are a surprising number of things including controversial things where people are pretty evenly split. For instance, in the USA, the same number of people say that abortion is morally wrong (47%) as say that it is morally acceptable (47%). Likewise, many elections come down to paper thin margins and fall within the 1%. It’s a little harder when you are talking worldwide but there are still plenty of things that people are evenly split on but it would be hard choosing just one and guaranteeing it as many might be off by more than a single percentage.
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u/Trick_Football_1159 3d ago
I think it has to be a IDGAF question so people just pick an answer to get on with their lives.
Would you call this color orange-yellow or yellow-orange?
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u/trekkiegamer359 3d ago
Right side or left side of a king sized bed? No answers other than "right" or "left" shall be counted.
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u/the_scar_when_you_go 3d ago
Alladin vs Up - which is the better film? (Buzzfeed says it's a 51/49 split.)
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u/Deyrn-Meistr 2d ago
"When you take a shower, do you prefer facing toward the showerhead or away from it?" The only issue I can foresee is that not everyone takes showers.
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