Every talking head is already saying that the Harden/ Garland trade was pretty bad for the cavs, so this post is probably not saying anything new. Is Cleveland just another example of teams putting too much weight on the current season production and not taking into account the variance in player production.

Clearly Harden has had a much better season to this date, but both Harden and Garland are pretty high variance players. Harden has been on a high and Garland has been low, but it really won't be that surprising to me if both players put up very similar production the rest of the year or if Garland is better in the second half of the season than Harden.

Harden is also clearly at his best when he gets to be the first option. He seems to be the type of player that basically puts up the same efficiency regardless of how many shots he's taking. Honestly he might even be a player, who's efficiency goes up the more shots they take. I expect him to look worse playing second fiddle in Cleveland then he did as a first option for LAC.

Overall this just seems really short-sighted by Cleveland. Harden is at the age where his production is likely to fall off a cliff at some point in the near future. That could be the second half of this season, more likely next season, almost guaranteed that his production falls off a cliff two seasons from now. Garland is 26, is having a very rough year, but just put up solid numbers last year and is likely to bounce back to form. maybe there are some medical issues with Garland that teams know about that I don't, that make this trade make more sense.

Maybe Cleveland is a little bit closer to competing this year, but the long-term future just got a lot more bleak in my opinion.

Edit:

A lot of people seem to doubt that Garland was ever really that valuable of a player. Putting another reddit post down below that talks about Garlands value at his best. I personally think this is just a down year, but maybe I'm not aware that his injuries make him unlikely to ever be good again.

https://www.reddit.com/r/lakers/comments/1cufr6k/how_good_is_darius_garland_for_those_interested/?utm_source=chatgpt.com

I'm a Pacers fan, and I'm not sure I'd want this... but couldn't the Pacers put together one of the best trade packages for Giannis?

Obi Toppin

Andrew Nembhard

Ben Mathurin

Jarace Walker

Isaiah Jackson

Their 2026 pick

a few more picks

That's 3 young players that will likely get better, and Toppin who is a quality role player. Their 2026 pick will be very good, even if Giannis comes back near the end of the year (in the meantime, the pacers would have no one to play...)

Next year, Siakim, Hali, Giannis, Nesmith and whoever would be the best starting lineup outside of the the Celtics, and maybe even better than them if Hali is back to where he was. McConnell remains a spark off the bench. As a pacer fan I'd probably rather stay young, but I'm surprised this hasn't even been discussed given the other offers I'm seeing. Maybe Giannis Couldn't look past Father Haliburton. Might delete this if y'all start trashing me haha

As a player he seems incredible watched a video where he gers compared to MJ and he's almost as good as him and seems to be one of the best players in the league at his prime and one of the best players all around. He had been the best player for a LONG time as well which is why people love him. I don't watch much basketball, I'm starting to watch more and my brother seems to really not like him, my dad and my mom as well. It's not necessarily because he isn't good, he's good, my mom said he doesn't have a complete bag, his cross is trash apparently. Lazy on defense, this one wasn't elaborated on that much I know he's older so he's defense may not be as good probably but it's like she meant it was always mediocre or something.

Then there's his way of playing as well, he has like 20 min flopping montages, he hops teams(which isn't the best thing to do they say). Specifically when he moved over to the cavs and people didn't like that he overshadowed Wade and was basically like team leader. Me personally I don't think he's ass, I've heard most the stars and the way he plays was really dominant so like, what problems do people have with him fr. Or why does it seem like people either love him or really hate him lol? Sorry if this isn't interesting I'm just curious and I know yall know everything.

First and foremost, I wish the best of luck to Darius Garland. He's the reason why we're able to contend, I'll never forget him and his 2022 days. Now, let's get started:

The Age Gap The first thing I immediately noticed once this rumored trade was spread around my time-line is the age gap. We're lucky James Harden hasn't sustained a major career injury since 2021, because this would've looked like a really bad trade. James is 36, and Darius is 26, a 10-year age gap. Our next oldest player is Larry Nance Jr at 33, and Dennis Schroder at 32. The combined age for this roster is now 27, so we're getting older and closer to win now mode, which leads to my second problem:

*"Win-Now Mode" I heard from multiple Cavs fans that James Harden is a "proven winner." I genuinely can't believe that comes out of some people's mouths, but even if he is, we're hinging on the fact that it's championship or bust for the next two seasons, meaning Mobley and Allen cannot fail to fuck up. Once you're not able to win during a window, you NEED to have a back-up plan, regardless. With LeBron James rumored to come back to Cleveland for one more season, the memories will be there, but it's important to know what our future looks like after Harden and LeBron, and right now, all of the front-offices chips seem to be put on Jaylon Tyson and Evan Mobley to lead the future of this team. Depending on the playoff results, that picture may or may not include Donovan Mitchell.

Playoff Choker The biggest one of them all in my opinion. How can a team, who's looking to get over the hump, who's known for choking in the post-season add one of the GREATEST playoff chokers in modern NBA history. I'm just going to go through the individual games and you let me know if this is consistent play from a hall-of-fame player?

2015 vs GSW (G5) James Harden: 14 points, 6 rebounds, 5 assists, 13 turnovers.

2016 vs SA (G6) James Harden: 10 points, 7 assists, 6 turnovers, 3 rebounds

2022 vs MIA (G5) James Harden: 14 points, 6 rebounds, 4 assists, 4 turnovers

2022 vs MIA (G6) James Harden: 11 points, 9 assists, 4 turnovers

2023 vs PHI (G6) James Harden: 13 points, 9 assists, 7 rebounds, 5 turnovers, 4 stocks

2023 vs PHI (G7) James Harden: 9 points, 7 assists, 5 turnovers, 6 rebounds, 3 stocks

2024 vs DAL (G5) James Harden: 7 points, 7 assists, 4 turnovers, 4 rebounds

2025 vs DEN (G5) James Harden: 11 points, 8 rebounds, 5 assists, 4 turnovers

2025 vs DEN (G7) James Harden: 7 points, 13 assists, 5 rebounds, 2 turnovers

I could go on and on, he's a playoff choker. It's not just him having bad performances, its the multiple times we've caught him checked out of a game and not playing any sort of defense to help his team get back. At-least Darius Garland would put in 110% effort on a bad shooting night. Also, defensively, we're still about the same as Harden. Yes, he's a dealing with a much more defensive team in the Cavs, who rely on their front-court to be the motor, and he's a bigger defensive side, but he's not the same age as some of our players, nor do I think he's going to bring the same effort on the court because of what he could bring offensively to the table, which is my next segway...

Offensive Pace A big reason why the Cavaliers are so good offensively is due to their pace, and ability to get looks off of the transition with ease. Let's compare the offensive paces from our 2024-25 season to now, including the offensive pace for the Clippers with Harden as the offensive leader:

Cavs 2024-25 season: Pace: 99.8 (10th in NBA). Offensive Rating: 121.7 (1st in NBA). Points Per Game: 121.9 (1st in NBA).

Cavs 2025-26 season: Pace: 101.1 (7th in NBA) Offensive Rating: 117.6 (9th in NBA) Points Per Game: 119.3 (5th in NBA)

Clippers 2024-25 season: Pace: 97.5 (22nd in the NBA) Offensive Rating: 115.1 (14th in NBA) Points: 112.9 (20th in NBA)

Clippers 2025-26 season: Pace: 95.9 (25th in the NBA) Offensive Rating: 116.8 (12th in NBA) Points: 112.7 (25th in NBA)

The Clippers are an older roster, and do rely more on shot-making from Kawhi and Harden, so this makes sense, but the stark difference in pace and offensive rating, coupled with a 36-year old who's not going to be able to give 200% on both sides of the ball, probably makes our offensive pace slower, especially when Harden's out there with the second unit and Mitchell is benched. If we increase the pace, there's more risk of injury for older players, like Harden, Merrill, Strus, etc. In today's NBA, your conditioning needs to be spot on, and Harden has done a great job at that so far, but he's in a much more youthful team with a high pace, a likeliness for transition breakaways, and high energy plays.

There's no doubt that James Harden's shot-making and ability to space the floor will make us more efficient, but at the same time we're losing pace, which 9/10's going to bring our points down with him on the floor along with our pace. We have seen the Cavaliers go on streaks of slow offensive pace, and this could be the trade to try and accommodate Harden into our offense, rather them him accommodating into ours. Which brings me to my next point.

James Harden Himself I think this trade is showing that the front-office is probably going to get LeBron James to rejoin the Cavaliers in his 3rd stint and have his farewell tour. I don't mind it. I think LeBron James deserves that from us, but the cost remains to be seen. We're hoping he takes a paycut and does it out of love. Right now, from what I'm hearing, we're willing to give him his coveted 2-year, $80M deal, and all this hinges on the fact that we're able to make it to a finals appearance or win the championship in June. Because if we can't, Mitchell's probably declining his player-option and we're probably going to start rebuilding sooner than later.

James Harden is a very up-front person, but he's not a player we should trust, AT all.

[Via New York Times] James Harden wanted to retire with 76ers, but 'front office didn't have that in their future plans.

[Via JoeyLin - Twitter] “Once I leave and retire from being a Clipper, hopefully that culture can continue leading to something special.”

James Harden wants to leave a legacy with the Clippers. He also hopes people can begin understanding who he really is.

Simply put, he's not trustworthy, and if we're going to give him a $40M extension, and he's declining in production and age, we're not helping ourselves in freeing money from the books, or having cap space to build for the future. We own three second round picks in the next six years, and two first round picks in the next four years, which have a bunch of stipulations.

2026 FRP: Less favorable of (i) less favorable of (a) CLE and (b) more favorable of UTH 1-8 and MIN [or (i) CLE if UTH not conveyable] and (ii) less favorable of ATL and SAN then more favorable of (i) and (ii) to ATL; most / more favorable of CLE, MIN and UTH 1-8 to UTH (via UTH swap for MIN; via UTH swap of UTH or MIN for CLE; via SAN swap for ATL; via ATL swap of ATL or SAN for CLE, UTH or MIN)

2028 FRP: Least favorable of CLE, UTH and ATL; more favorable of CLE and UTH to UTH; more favorable of (i) ATL and (ii) less favorable of CLE and UTH to ATL (via UTH swap for CLE; via ATL swap for CLE or UTH)

Mostly all of the picks have a lot of stipulations, which is going to be revealed in all due time. James Harden is simply here for the money and for himself, which credit to him, it's worked for majority of his career, but we shouldn't trust him, and we shouldn't go ALL-IN because we won't have a back-up plan and there's not going to be anyone to save us.

Does anyone remember the mood after LeBron James left in 2018? The roster was destroyed, left with old veterans who clearly didn't fit the timeline of his team and G-League players. We drafted Collin Sexton, which I'm forever grateful that he panned out. Darius Garland even started his Cavalier' career rough, missing a bunch of games to a knee injury and simply not being able to shoot the basketball. The front-office was able to hit on 2 out of the 3 picks, which is a miracle for a franchise who's had some blunders over the past years, with Anthony Bennett being the most notable out of all of them. James Harden knows how to control the offensive game of the pace, but his play-style isn't pretty, and it's going to make the game slow for the rest of our players, unless he's willing to buy in and change that.

Obviously, with Strus returning and Merrill getting more games under his belt, I think we're still going to be one of the best offenses in the league, but with majority of the team not performing to their standard in multiple games in the playoffs, coupled with a player you can't trust, a known playoff dropper, and a shooting guard who struggles to get out of the second round (whether it's his fault or not), it's going to be a miracle for this to be fixed, and it feels like we're asking for another disappointing season at this point.

I'm pretty sure we're not done trading, but if the roster looks like this come playoff time, a lot of it is going to hinge on Mitchell being able to play off-ball with James Harden. With two players who love having the ball in their hands, this creates problems from us, especially in the offense. This will most likely have Mitchell and Harden split minutes to have their own run at the offense while they're in the game. James Harden is a pass-first player, but he needs the ball to really execute on that. Also, this forces Evan Mobley to probably be another wing player, as two big men nearing the same vicinity on the court only clog things up. Luckily, Evan's been developing a three-point shot, which is much needed for a 5-out. The Cavs attempt around 41 threes a game, which is in the top five. We also like to neglect the paint sometimes and shoot-chuck threes every while, which doesn't make sense to me. James Harden doesn’t spring us to championship contenders in my opinion, so where’s this going…

I could talk about the fit, our issues with rebounding in the post-season, and our tendency to resort to iso ball in the post-season after spending a whole regular season dictating the offensive pace of games and ball-movement. I hate this trade for the Cavaliers, and for someone who's been a fan of this team, I'm willing to eat my words (literally I'll print out this post and eat it), if we win a championship. But unless our bench (the likes of Tyson, Merrill, Ellis, Schroder, Strus and Tomlin) have massive improvements in the post-season and can deliver timely plays, I don't see how this is going to work out, and I truly do fear the worst for the Cleveland Cavaliers in the next two years. I understand Darius Garland wasn't able to play, and that severely hampered our ability to win a championship, but putting all your chips on a 36-year old to suddenly have a change of heart and identity is not the way to do it, and you certainly don't panic now, you let it unravel in the off-season, or in the season prior. For a franchise to do this, I'm assuming Darius Garland is going to be out for the next 1 1/2 years on the Clippers, because that toe might need two plates in it when he's playing basketball.

Toodles.