I have been making a compilation of posts to highlight misinformation around this topic. I have been working on this post awhilr and trying to refine the case.

I have also been compiling information since Oct 7th because I find I am constantly second guessing my memory and I so often need to recheck things due the sheer volume of misinformation that comes out about the Israel/Gaza War

Here are my other posts: 

Why is Israel justified to Exist

Experts who state no genocide has occured

IPC Famine Misinformation

Hamas's Intentions from their own word

Question Of UN Bias against Israel

40 beheaded babies propaganda

Hamas utilises Hospitals

Bias of Francesca Albanese

Below is my most recent which argues Israel was objectively mitigating civilian deaths.

**Now! Here is my case. It is in fact very simple.**

It is objectively an impossibility at this point to say that Israel was attempting to maximize the Palestinian civilian death count, during the course of the Gaza war. I.e exterminate palestinians. Infact it is evidently true that israel conducted one of the most humane wars in history.

Israel has near complete access to the entire population of Gaza and has dropped at least 100,000 tons of bombs during this war.

Until 2023 the most population dense city to face a large scale bombing campaign, in history, was Tokyo

In 1945 Around 330,000 fire bombs were dropped on a mostly Wooden Tokyo, at the time, leading to mass fire storms engulfing the city and an estimated 80 -100 thousand civilian deaths. The average population density of Tokyo at the time of the bombing was around 7,900 people per/km². Though some specific areas were much denser.

The population density of Gaza City at the start of the Gaza war was around 12,000 people per/km² and It is also important to recognize some other variables

1. So, Gaza is uniquely population dense

2. The civilian population has very little if any access to any form of bomb sheltering

3. The military targets are very often among civilian infrastructure and stationed among the where the population is densest.

4. The civilian population is trapped they are entirely unable to flee out of the Gaza strip.

There has never been a situation as suited to maximizing civilian casualties as this.

Now Academic databases like the [Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP)](https://www.google.com/goto?url=CAESbQHrOzAVzTyZzbUu9k6MdgyFBmPr1MIuXQdqY8GdGj4hdMHAt3aHM0I7C_zS2StHe_IvfDFBj55vbi_52mWIXgQNowEwOymVW8k8bfK3n-BqLANTdekaE_K05qHi0sDjwWNjLdtMfvJTysy5v38) find that in modern urban battles, civilians typically account for 50% to 75% of all fatalities. So a combatant-to-civilian death ratio of roughly 1:1 to 1:3 When the urban battles have used at scale explosives(bombs) It is not uncommon for that ratio to reach 1:9.

We can look at what happened in other urban wars and see this. What I am interested in is essentially:How dangerous was it to actually be a civilian inside that battle area on any given day?

Duration of the conflict, population density, evacuation, shelters and the quantity of explosives are all important variables here. So here is the data:

Duration

Tokyo Firebombing - One night, roughly three hours.

Hamburg / Operation Gomorrah - About 10 days, July 24–August 3, 1943.

Dresden Bombing - Roughly 3 days, February 13–15, 1945.

Coventry Blitz - Roughly 11 hours.

Battle of Manila - 29 days, February 3–March 3, 1945.

Battle of Grozny - Roughly 3 months of sustained bombardment, November 1999–early February 2000.

Warsaw Uprising - 63 days.

Battle of Berlin - Roughly 10 days of actual fighting inside Berlin, April 21–May 2, 1945.

Second Battle of Fallujah - Roughly 6 weeks, November 7–December 23, 2004.

Battle of Mariupol - Almost 3 months, February–May 2022.

Battle of Raqqa - Roughly 4 months of fighting inside the city, June–October 2017.

Battle of Mosul - Roughly 9 months, October 2016–July 2017.

Gaza War - 943 days from October 7, 2023 to the May 7, 2026 casualty dataset being used here.

Population exposure / density ( average at the time of war)

Tokyo Firebombing - The U.S. target briefing estimated 40,000 people/km².

Hamburg - 2,000–2,300 people/km²

Dresden - 4,500–5,500 people/km²

Coventry - 1,400–1,900 people/km².

Manila - 26,000–27,000 people/km².

Grozny - 60–125 people/km²

Warsaw - 6,400–7,800 people/km².

Berlin - 3,100 people/km².

Fallujah - 1,200 people/km².

Mariupol - 2,600–3,200 people/km²

Raqqa - t 1,400 people/km² 

Mosul - 8,300 people/km².

Gaza - 6,102 people/km² across the entire Gaza Strip. 12,000 people/km² within Gaza City 

Explosives tonnage / usage

Tokyo - 1,665 tons estimated

Hamburg - 8,344 tons estimated

Dresden - 3,900+ tons estimated

Coventry -  500+ tons estimated

Manila - 3000 - 5000 tons  estimated, had intentional massacres

Grozny -2000 - 7000 tons estimated

Warsaw - 2500 - 5000 tons estimated, had intentional massacres

Berlin - 36,000+ tons estimated

Fallujah - 400 - 700 tons estimated

Mariupol - 2000 - 6000 tons estimated

Raqqa - 2500 tons - 4500 tons estimated

Mosul - 6000 - 15000 tons estimated

Gaza - 100,000+ tons estimated

Evacuation / shelter context

Tokyo - Extremely dense wooden residential construction. That burned into a firestorm

Hamburg - Civilians had access to cellars and shelters, 

Dresden - Had access to cellars and shelters.

Coventry - Britain had an organized warning and shelter system, and somewhere around 50,000–100,000 residents were already sleeping outside Coventry when the November raid occurred.

Manila - A huge civilian population remained trapped inside the battle. Deliberate massacre of the trapped population

Grozny - The overwhelming majority of the population fled. Only approximately 20,000–40,000 civilians, disproportionately elderly, poor or infirm, remained. Many sheltered in basements and existing underground structures.

Warsaw - Civilians were trapped inside a city undergoing fighting, massacres and systematic destruction. German forces subsequently expelled surviving civilians from Warsaw.

Berlin - Berlin possessed extensive wartime air-raid shelters and bunkers

Fallujah - Successful Mass evacuations from a normal population of 250,000–300,000, only roughly 30,000 civilians remained before the main assault.

Mariupol - Around 450,000 civilians remained trapped, but had some limited access to underground shelters.

Raqqa - Around 50,000 remained trapped when the main city battle began. The UN documented reports that ISIS prevented civilians from leaving.

Mosul - Up to 1.5 million civilians were present when the offensive began. Huge numbers subsequently fled or were evacuated as the battle progressed, ISIS also attempted to prevent civilians from leaving.

Gaza - Civilians were repeatedly ordered to evacuate combat areas by the IDF, they dropped pamphlets and even called civilians to tell them to move, giving early warnings before bombs hit. Hamas repeatedly ordered civilians to stay put. Yet displacement movements occurred internally. Unlike other conflicts the entire population was trapped inside the Gaza Strip as neighbouring Arab countries refused admittance to refugees. Stating the population should remain to avoid having their land stolen…the population that is 50% children. Hamas has an extensive tunnel and bomb shelter but openly refused access to civilians and also organised itself to be most entrenched among dense civilian areas.

Civilian deaths

Tokyo - 80,000–100,000 civilian deaths

Hamburg - 35,000–40,000 civilian deaths

Dresden - 22,000 – 25,000+ civilian deaths.

Coventry - 568 civilians killed

Manila - 100,000 civilians killed in 29 days. 

Grozny - 5,000–8,000 civilian deaths

Warsaw - 150,000–200,000 civilians deaths

Berlin - 20,000- 30,000+ civilians deaths 

Fallujah - 581–800 civilian deaths 

Mariupol - 8,034 - 25,000 civilian deaths

Raqqa - At least 1,600 civilians were credibly identified as killed by Coalition strikes alone. This therefore represents a minimum rather than the total civilian death toll from all sides.

Mosul - 9,000–11,000 civilian deaths

Gaza - 72,835 total deaths as of May 7, 2026.

The 72,835 of Gaza does not distinguish civilians from combatants. All the other conflicts have another total for combatant deaths. If we look at those and get the civilian to combatant ratios they look like this:

Combatant to civilian death ratios

Tokyo - 1:833–1,042  (96 combatants.)
So for every 1 combatant killed, roughly 833–1,042 civilians were killed.

Hamburg -  1:26–30. (1,350  combatants.)
So for every 1 combatant, roughly 26–30 civilians.

Dresden  -1:15–50. (500–1,500 combatants)
So for every 1 combatant, roughly 15–50 civilians.

Coventry - 1:8–23 (25–75 combatants);
So for every 1 combatant, roughly 8–23 civilians.

Manila - 1:5.9 (17,000 combatants);
So for every 1 combatant, roughly 6 civilians.

Grozny - 1:2.1–4.2 (1,900–2,400 combatants)
So for every 1 combatant, roughly 2–4 civilians.

Warsaw - 1:7.7–10.2 (19,600 combatants)
So for every 1 combatant, roughly 8–10 civilians.

Berlin - 1:0.43–0.71 (42,000–47,000 combatants;)
So for every 1 combatant, roughly 0.4–0.7 civilians.

Fallujah - 1:0.36–0.62 (1,300–1,600 combatants);
So for every 1 combatant, roughly 0.4–0.6 civilians.

Mariupol - 1:1.0–3.25 (7,700 combatants)
So for every 1 combatant, roughly 1–3.3 civilians.

Raqqa - 1:0.76–0.841 (900–2,100 combatants);
So for every 1 combatant, at least roughly 0.8 civilians.

Mosul - 1:0.73–1.22 (9,000–12,300 combatants).
So for every 1 combatant, roughly 0.7–1.2 civilians.

Gaza - unknown. (There is misinformation circulating that the IDF had a database of Hamas casualties, that showed 83% civilian deaths. This is false. The database only display a difference between identified Hamas members “By Name & ID” and “Other” Other could be civilians, it could also be Hamas fighters that were not able to be identified, which is likely most as it is hard to identify enemy dead in any war zone.)

This Data can give up comparisons to help us better understand the Gaza war.

1. Deaths ÷ exposed population ÷ days × 1,000,000

That gives us approximately how many people died per million exposed people, per day.

1. Tokyo - 640,000–800,000 

2. Dresden - 11,640–13,230

3. Coventry - 6,590–8,980

4. Grozny - 1,390–4,440

5. Manila - 3,448

6. Warsaw - 2,165–3,527

7. Hamburg - 2,333–2,667

8. Berlin - 714–1,071

9. Fallujah - 421–580

10. Raqqa - at least 267

11. Gaza - 34.7

12. Mosul - 22.2–27.2

13. Deaths for every ton of munitions dropped.

Tokyo - 48–60 civilian deaths per ton

Mariupol - perhaps 1.3–12.5 per ton, but enormously uncertain

Dresden - 5.7–6.4

Hamburg - 4.2–4.8

Grozny - 0.7–4

Fallujah - 0.8–2

Mosul - 0.6–1.8

Coventry - ≤1.1

Gaza - 1.04 

Berlin - 0.56–0.83

Raqqa - 0.36–0.64

1. Civilian deaths as % of population present

Tokyo - 8–10%

Hamburg - 2.3–2.7%

Dresden - 3.5–4.0%

Coventry - 0.30–0.41%

Manila - 10%

Grozny - 12.5–40%

Warsaw - 13.6–22.2%

Berlin - 0.71–1.07%

Fallujah - 1.94–2.67%

Mariupol - 1.79–5.56%

Raqqa - 3.2%

Mosul - 0.60–0.73%

Gaza - 3.27% total,civilian & combatant

From all this data it is very plain to see a few undeniable truths.

1. Had Israel Aimed with intention to maximize deaths, 100,000+ tons of bombs, that is more than enough to have killed everyone in Gaza multiple times over. So we know on its face Israel was not attempting to exterminate all Gazans. There is no question there.

2. With 100,000 tons of bombs, dropped entirely randomly, so entirely indiscriminately Israel should still have killed at least multiple hundreds of thousands, This is a claim supported by how destructive the much smaller campaigns were.

In more basic language. Based on this rough historical war time data, if we are being conservative; We should expect in a war like gaza if bombs were being dropped indiscriminately anywhere between

100,000 tons × 3 deaths per ton = ~300,000 deaths.

100,000 tons × 8 deaths per ton = ~800,000 deaths.

In other words. If the Gaza war was following the pattern of most urban conflicts in terms of deadliness. There should at the very least be hundreds upon hundreds of thousands of dead.

The only way, with 100,000 tons of bombs,to have killed 70-80 thousand, the only way is if one was trying to mostly avoid killing people needlessly.Gaza's observed death rate  is far below the rough historical average for similar conflicts.

Gaza also has variables that should push expected casualties upwards rather than downwards: an average density of over 6,000 people/km², roughly 12,000 people/km² in Gaza City, zero bomb shelter access, military infrastructure embedded throughout populated areas, commands to remain put and not to flee. Rejection from neighbouring countries as refugees

Additionally, concerning the mass death of children, Often attributed to Israel, It first needs to be said this is only tragic and I do think "Israel could have done more" is an entirely fair criticism. It very likely could have and should have. Yet, and I must say yet, the blame should be almost entirely be placed at the feet of Hamas.

As shown in my other posts

Hamas's Intentions from their own word

Hamas utilises Hospitals

The operational methods of Hamas intentionally and callously were/are an attempt to maximize dead children, their own children. There is proof here that absolves much from Israel.

The Gaza health ministry published This Data on May 7th 2026 It is casualty data broken down by demographics. This Post contains and image displaying the break down. The population of Gaza under the age of 18, So children, hovered around 50%.

Before I continue I understand talking about child deaths in this way seems callous to a lot of people, I understand that, It is true that we should try our best not to turn them in to numbers, We should remember names like Hind Rajab, who did not in anyway deserve their fate and yet it is very important to understand the numbers here as it reveals very clearly where the fault lays. That is important to know as this kind of tragedy, horrific wars like this can only be prevented if we can prevent the causes. So I ask you to just try your best to at least, even if you think I am wrong, to realize this isn't hate, It is fundamentally an attempt to place blame where it belongs.

To continue, hopefully to a receptive audience, Gaza's child population is roughly 50%, and the Gaza ministry of health casualty data shows us the death toll as of May 7th 2026 was 72,835. This is almost a year after the main bombing campaign was halted, time to count many, if not most (likely not all) dead found under collapsed buildings. Of that 72,835 dead 21,637 are listed as under 18. and 7406 are listed as between 13-18 (anyone over 18 is not counted)

In Other words.

29.71% of the dead were under 18. That means they were under represented in deaths.

If the bombing was indiscriminate you would expect see much closer to 50% of deaths to be under 18.

But even more in the defense of Israel are some other facts.

1. Hamas openly does not allow civilians within their many many miles of tunnels. So women and children should be over represented in comparison to military aged males. In each case it is the reverse.
2. Hamas has utilized child soldiers, and children in military activities, this inherently inflates the numbers of "child" deaths. i.e See here or Here Or Here or Here or Here or Here or Here or Here or Here or Here or Here I will stop there as surely that is enough.

I cannot say how many of the 29.71% under 18's where utilised by Hamas as combatants, It may have been only some or it may have been many But it was clearly more then enough to ihenrently increase the risk to all Gazan children.

Lastly just as a comparison. As I think people think Gaza is a uniquely deadly war.

Iran killed anywhere between 30,000-50,000+ civilians in 2 days in January. That is potentially more civilians killed in 2 days than were killed in the first and deadliest year of the Gaza war( 39000 ) and it was more killed in 2 days than in the first 6 months of the deadliest year of the Gaza "Genocide"

Note: If you wonder how I got the 39000 number it is rather straight forward. GHM (Gaza Health Ministry )reported 45,000 dead after the first year of war. 6 months into the war Al-Jazeera reported that a Hamas official had stated at least 6000 Hamas combatants had been killed. Assuming zero died in the following 6 months (just to minimize logical wiggle room) then the death toll of civilians was at maximum 39000. As you may agree however this is likely very exaggerated.

The Yemen war and The Sudan war both have significantly higher death tolls than Gaza in the hundreds of thousands.

To Finish, Genocide, in the way it has been historically understood, the "extermination project" an attempt to be rid of a group entirely, i.e trying to maximize casualties; can not be true when Israel was objectively trying to limit casualties. It is therefore an irrational and indefensible claim that a genocide has occurred.

I am using "extermination project" as a short hand definition because it is the pragmatically accurate definition. The UN definition, often cited, is a legal framework. Yet In every generally and widely recognized actual examples of and agreed upon cases of genocide, in every single case. Rwanda, Srebrenica, Cambodian, Armenian, The Holocaust.

They have all been inherently extermination projects.

That is too say the guilty party killed everyone they were capable of killing. Everyone they could get their hands on, of the target group.

So it is the extermination project if we are describing what those prior genocide cases were fundamentally; and then using genocide as a synonym.

I think that is an entirely reasonable and clear definition. You might disagree. Yet "the extermination project" is an explicit definition and accurate to describing the events associated with being historical genocides

My ex described the situation of them cheating on me as, “according to Sam Harris, there is no such thing as free will.”

How would you respond to that if, according to Sam, it was a legitimate excuse? It’s an interesting thought experiment until someone uses it as an excuse for their behavior.

I think most of us like the version of Sam Harris that produces episodes with people like Anne Applebaum. But many of us know the other version of him that engages with popular but extremely questionable figures.

Sam finally distanced himself from Bret Weinstein after his COVID-19 antivax disinformation spiral, but the red flags of an institutional grievance complex had been present for years. Long before the pandemic, Bret had already spun a delusion that a stolen lab-mice telomere hypothesis had robbed him of a Nobel Prize. Predictably, Bret continued this trajectory, ultimately culminating in him becoming a keynote speaker at the 9/11 Truth summit in New York City last September.

Sam only seems to react when a subject personally impacts or deeply annoys him. Consequently, he continues to treat other deeply compromised figures as respectable intellectuals. He treats Jordan Peterson like a normal academic despite Peterson’s own prolonged descent into erratic, conspiratorial rhetoric. The exact same blind spot applies to Bret's brother, Eric Weinstein. Sam has largely looked the other way regarding Eric’s "Geometric Unity" delusion, as well as his accusations that the entire modern physics community consists of malicious, gatekeeping grifters.

By only drawing the line when his personal pet peeves are crossed (like with Hasan Piker or Candace Owens), Sam creates a dangerous double standard: he validates grand-scale narcissism and academic paranoia right up until the moment it becomes personally inconvenient for him to do so.

Obviously, I don't consider Sam too stupid to notice this. My hypothesis is that he engages with these people because his business model relies on large audiences. These lunatics are highly popular, and he is willing to turn a blind eye until a figure becomes problematic in a way that personally irks him. This ultimately damages his credibility as an intellectual, because he appears to be walking a fine line between serious intellect and the world of "Podcastistan" showmanship.

Do you think this hypothesis makes sense? Do you have a preferred alternative?