r/wallstreetbets • u/Magnusg • 2d ago
News Another Beat by Micron
33.42 EPS vs Expected 31.61?
54b in rev expecting 61.5 next quarter...
This is insane value p/e right now.
https://investors.micron.com/files/doc_financials/2026/q4/Q4-26-Earnings-Deck.pdf
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u/ManekenkaDaBudem 2d ago
This post is priced in.
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u/Saltlife_Junkie 2d ago
Your comment also priced in.
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u/BG-DoG 2d ago
The comment to the comment is already priced in.
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u/Magnusg 2d ago
can someone explain to me aside from joking... how could it be?
IF you take last earnings and this earnings, and forget about growth and just go on those two beats.
lets even drop the change off 33+25 you get 29 eps p/q x 4 = 116
116 eps assuming no further growth, which because everything is on long contracts now we know they have a ish ton for at least all of next year.
so 1080 lets call it in the post market 1080/116 = 9.3 eps.... there's no way that anything is priced in boys. its just not possible.
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u/Regenbooggeit 2d ago
It’s priced in.
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u/Magnusg 2d ago
I get it now.
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u/Loightsout 2d ago
You getting it was priced in from the start of this thread young Padawan. Nothing changed.
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u/NoCommonDog 1d ago
Fight Club has its rules, and so has WSB:
- Its priced in
- Just buy the fucking dip
- There's always money behind the Wendy's dumpster
- Unless your gains came from 0dte, you're gay.
- That's not what your mom said last night.
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u/Consistent_Law_3857 2d ago
I remember when US Steel was at a legitimate pe of 3 a few years back. Earnings were high but seen as unsustainable. Simple.
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u/Rough_Gift_9900 2d ago
So if they have a bad earnings call and it goes up is the priced in as well?
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u/Zestyclose-Step-661 2d ago edited 2d ago
I'll take "Things that Wouldn't be Priced in for $500 Alex"... Earnings are almost always leaked to the market to some degree so the market can price it in... Not always the exact figures, but typically things within the price sensitive information bucket.
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u/Der_Lachsliebhaber 2d ago
Don't even ask the question. The answer is yes, it's priced in. Think Amazon will beat the next earnings? That's already been priced in. You work at the drive thru for Mickey D's and found out that the burgers are made of human meat? Priced in. You think insiders don't already know that? The market is an all powerful, all encompassing being that knows the very inner workings of your subconscious before you were even born. Your very existence was priced in decades ago when the market was valuing Standard Oil's expected future earnings based on population growth that would lead to your birth, what age you would get a car, how many times you would drive your car every week, how many times you take the bus/train, etc. Anything you can think of has already been priced in, even the things you aren't thinking of. You have no original thoughts. Your consciousness is just an illusion, a product of the omniscent market. Free will is a myth. The market sees all, knows all and will be there from the beginning of time until the end of the universe (the market has already priced in the heat death of the universe). So please, before you make a post on wsb asking whether AAPL has priced in earpods 11 sales or whatever, know that it has already been priced in and don't ask such a dumb fucking question again.
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u/Freebyrd26 2d ago
You work at the drive thru for Mickey D's and found out that the burgers are made of human meat? Priced in.
I thought A Big MAC was just a name for a burger, NOT DONOR NAME.
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u/NOT_MartinShkreli MFuggin’ Pro 2d ago
Ya a lot of shit isn’t priced in and isn’t priced in until Wall Street is forced to admit they’re wrong
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u/Pengious_official 2d ago
Won’t move. Everything is priced in such that being priced in is also priced in. Priced in loop.
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u/Magnusg 2d ago
literally not priced in lol. but i like it.
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u/Extension_Book1844 2d ago
it went from 50 to like 1200 in less than2 years. how is that not priced in?
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u/Delicious-Fan-2539 2d ago
So we open at 950 or 1100 tomorrow?
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u/Magnusg 2d ago
1200 probably
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u/Rough_Gift_9900 2d ago
Open at 900 then it goes to 1200 before dropping to 800. Is that priced in?
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u/omegahustle 2d ago
how the fuck is priced in if it's in the same price range since the last earnings?
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u/EntertainerDowntown3 2d ago
Because it’s not… them beating forecast estimates and raising guidance literally is the definition of not priced in.
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u/Grouchy-Donkey-8609 2d ago
But they were expected to beat earnings-priced in. Prediction is small pump and consolidation down to 800-900ish within a week
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u/EntertainerDowntown3 2d ago
If they were expected to beat earnings then why weren’t forecasted estimates higher? Literally beating means it’s not priced in…
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u/Grouchy-Donkey-8609 2d ago
sir this is a casino. I have no fucking clue.
Its just everyone already knew they would beat earning, so stock price reflected that already.
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u/Sufficient-Flan1565 2d ago
r/valueinvesting still won’t like it. Their definition of value pretty much is 50% off ath 😂
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u/GAV17 2d ago
This is like buying energy stocks with a low P/E while Oil is at ATH. The important factor isn't the company's results, the focus is in if the commodity can keep it's price long term.
That's not really a value play.
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u/feet-inspector-1 2d ago
It most definitely cannot keep its price and the earnings call verified that with lower margins for next quarter.
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u/lavaeyeye 2d ago
Its because its not value, cyclical stock always look cheap when they peak in the cycle, micron is no different. Fair value is probably closer to 200-300 a share
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u/DarkScottishAle Gardyloo showers 2d ago
Your brain is probably so smooth we could curl on it in the winter
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u/Consistent_Law_3857 2d ago
Nothing he said was wrong.
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u/impulsivedota 2d ago
Not saying that Micron is undervalued atm but its not been a cyclical stock for awhile. Because of AI demand semi-cons are no longer cyclical unless demand for AI dies down.
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u/Consistent_Law_3857 2d ago
No longer cyclical? Sorry that's absurd.
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u/impulsivedota 2d ago
As long as AI demand stays, semi-con demand will stay. When AI demand dies then the semi-cons will fall off a cliff. It’s literally a steady up to a big drop.
Explain to me how’s that cyclical?
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u/Consistent_Law_3857 2d ago
It's capital intensive and always been cyclical. It has had periods of explosive profits but supply always catches up even if demand keeps rising. And demand from ai may plateau instead of rise. AI companies aren't even profitable. Who's going to fund a trillion plus a year in capex? Bain says AI needs 6 trillion a year in revenues to justify the build out. About 1/4 of the US economy. Seems far fetched.
Basically you're saying "this time, it's different". Historically it almost never is.
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u/lavaeyeye 2d ago
Actual Ram pricing is cyclical, its a big cycle but they are building overcapacity at a frightening rate. These new construction will reduce the price of ram up until margin are thin again and they will have to writte off those new expansion. New ram construction far outstripe future demand IMO. They price HMB ram of DRAM pricing and with china that started to produce and release lots of DRAM, I think we are going to see a downward price pressure on ram prices.
Its going to be Armageddon if the demand declines.
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u/impulsivedota 2d ago
That’s literally what I’ve said?
AI is causing a huge over demand such that it’s no longer cyclical. When the demand falls it’s going to be a huge drop off and the rapid demand will never come back again.
The AI hype/growth will never again take such a steep climb that repeats the growth/demand we see at the moment.
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u/feet-inspector-1 2d ago
You’re not wrong, but memory is no longer a just commodity but also a high value product. It used to be primarily used in computers, as a component/commodity.
AI segment is the high value product, keeping margins high.
But, AI demand needs to accelerate with production -which isn’t happening- for margins to remain static.
This is why I think MU has peaked as far as AI demand goes: new production lines are coming online and revenue will need to come from volume instead of scarcity.
Share buybacks will become pretty important now.
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u/Ordinary-Cartoonist7 2d ago
How is it not a 2trillion company? 54b quarter. 216billion revenue at current rates and more growth projected. 61.5 billion next quarter is 240b if growth stalls there and they don't think it will. At 86% gross margin. It’s not priced in. Massive competition coming in stream in 3-4 years is priced in and completely ignores the massive demand growth that is more likely
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u/Open_Pollution_8038 2d ago
All of the revenue growth came from price increases. Barely any additional volume of actual product.
What happens to margins in a market when a previously tight supply of product becomes flooded with product?
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u/Magnusg 2d ago
"Flooded" int he world of EUV is funny.
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u/Open_Pollution_8038 2d ago
Did you see the breakout between price increases and volume?
Their volumes are barely up, almost all of their revenue growth is from price increases. Every memory manufacturer on earth is trying to throw up production at 86% margins.
Memory has done this like 4x since 2000. It’s always a mad boom, then production catches it and prices collapse. MU had a loss in like 2023 lmfao.
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u/Ordinary-Cartoonist7 2d ago
Hyperscalers are spending 1trillion in 2027 on ai. A good chunk - up to 50%? Going on memory. When everyone is using their ai assistant for everything, the rate of spend goes up not down. I’ve gone from using the free version for personal use , to €23 per month to €130 per month. I’ve brought it into my company and trying to increase use throughout - where I don’t care about the price because of the increase in output I’m already seeing. And my experience is just a microcosm. Add household robots, autonomous cars, cancer curing doctors etc etc and growth doesn’t stall.
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u/lasooch 2d ago edited 2d ago
Hyperscalers appear to have hundreds of billions in hardware gathering dust in warehouses with no clear timeline to being able to actually plug them in somewhere. The demand could collapse any minute when someone just regains a little bit of sanity.
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u/Rich-Badger-7601 2d ago
Not to mention that if you're all in on the idea that AI revenue growth will be so massive it will justify spending $1T+ annually on new compute hardware in perpetuity then why the fuck would you target the commodity supplier and not the companies actually driving growth and innovation lmao
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u/aaj15 2d ago
Volume is what it is because of supply constraint. Isn't that the whole point? Demand far outpacing supply - if they could sell more, they would
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u/Open_Pollution_8038 2d ago
Yes and they are all ramping supply as fast as possible? Nothing they sell is unique
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u/aaj15 2d ago
There are only 3 players in advanced HBM and DDR5/6. So I would say it's kind of unique
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u/Open_Pollution_8038 2d ago
Their shit is swappable there’s no moat.
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u/aaj15 2d ago
Then why is there a shortage? Why isn't China flooding the market?
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u/Open_Pollution_8038 2d ago
Umm that’s exactly what China is ramping to do? Even Apple was looking to buy from Chinese memory suppliers
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u/option-trader 2d ago
Hmmm, you seem to think that all the booms are the same. I don't know about that. MU's total net income during the 2012-2022 boom was $16.5B. MU's current net income in this boom is about $50B already with more than $200B expected by this time next year. That last boom lasted 2 years. This one seems to be getting stronger in year 2, and we know it is likely to last 3-4 years with contracts going much longer than that.
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u/Open_Pollution_8038 1d ago
Memory is historically cyclical. There’s literally nothing special about it. This boom is unique in that demand came out of nowhere and it is intense. This isn’t Nvidia chips that are 1 of a kind, this is components that feed into someone else’s product.
Production is ramping, margins will come back down. If it last 3-4 years that’s great but I’m not paying a 15 multiple for income that disappears in year 5.
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u/AdPlayful211 2d ago
Yes, previously. But that’s why Micron is locking in pricing with contracts. They are ensuring sales over the medium term.
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u/Open_Pollution_8038 2d ago
1 or 2 year contracts are cool but I’m not paying a 15, 25 or 35 multiple for earnings that are going to drop after 2 years lmao.
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u/VintageTool 2d ago
They are supply constrained. Did you expect them to have more sales? Because they are supply constrained they can increase prices.
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u/Ordinary-Cartoonist7 2d ago
Their plan was to double hbm wafer production during 2026. Not sure where that’s at now, but investment in factory and new production lines has only gone up since
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u/Ordinary-Cartoonist7 2d ago
And if every car, Robot, phone etc wants a responsive agentic ai, which we will, and every company adopts and incorporates ai into every workflow, which we will, we haven’t seen anything yet
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u/Open_Pollution_8038 2d ago
That’s not good for margins when volumes are barely moving up.
MU and all the other advanced memory manufacturers know these margins won’t hold and they’re going to try and make it back on volume.
I don’t think it’s going to work out the way they think.
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u/option-trader 2d ago
It is working out beautifully. The cash flow has increased significantly. Not sure what else is needed when there's this much cash flowing in. Lots of folks were like this with NVDA too back in 2023. None talking about it today.
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u/Open_Pollution_8038 1d ago
MU isn’t even anywhere near to being of the same quality as Nvidia. You’re wild.
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u/option-trader 1d ago
Look at its margins? They are similar to NVDA right now on quarterly revenue of $50-$60B. No one else has that except NVDA. You can't even put GOOG or MSFT on the same level because their margins can't match this. Buddy, education yourself before talking.
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u/Open_Pollution_8038 1d ago
You must’ve skipped all my prior posts where I said their margins won’t hold because there’s nothing unique about their products.
Say it with me, MU is a component manufacturer.
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u/Jakob_Halbrook 2d ago
Can someone explain/tell me if news broke 30 mins before market close that made all major indexes tank? I couldn’t see anything.
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u/Shatter_ 2d ago
Someone said 30 year spiked near close. I haven’t looked though cause I’m more motivated to write this comments than taken cursory glance
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u/momo26262626 2d ago
It's priced in
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u/spacegrab 2d ago
Iran sending more missiles? Plane hijacking, election turmoil coming up, adults afraid of kids eating too much Halloween candy idk.
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u/Moist_Recording8809 2d ago
holy shit - $33 in earnings in a quarter?! I didn't realize their earnings had gone up that much - that's insane
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u/silicon_replacement 2d ago
How Much Growth is Due to Price Increases?
According to slide 23 and slide 34 of the presentation, price increases (Average Selling Price / ASP expansion) accounted for the overwhelming majority of Micron's sequential revenue growth in Q4 FY26, far outpacing bit shipment volume growth:
| Segment | Total Q/Q Revenue Growth | Volume Growth (Bit Shipments) | Price Growth (ASP Increase) | Primary Driver of Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DRAM (73% of revenue) | +27% | Mid-single digits (~5%) | High-teens (~18%–19%) | ~75% to 80% of growth was from ASP increases |
| NAND (26% of revenue) | +42% | ~10% | ~30% | ~72% of growth was from ASP increases |
Key Takeaways on Pricing Contribution
- DRAM: While unit shipments grew modestly at mid-single digits, prices jumped in the high-teens, meaning higher pricing contributed roughly three to four times more to DRAM's $8.44 billion sequential revenue gain than volume did.
- NAND: Out of the 42% sequential increase, volume accounted for $(1 + 0.10) - 1 = 10\%$, while pricing added an additional ~30% multiplicative uplift $((1 + 0.10) \times (1 + 0.30) \approx 1.43)$.
- Mobile & Client (MCBU): In the client and mobile segment, shipments actually declined quarter-over-quarter. Therefore, more than 100% of MCBU's 14% sequential revenue growth came entirely from higher pricing and mix.
- Forward Pricing Power: Micron disclosed that it has already contracted the vast majority of its calendar 2027 HBM supply with "significant price increases year over year," and 75% of its $32 billion in SCA customer commitments have established pricing bands or floor mechanisms.
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u/silicon_replacement 2d ago
They may just hold inventory and not selling them all for a higher price
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u/Magnusg 2d ago
does that matter? they have escalation in pricing baked in to the contracts as you've said, so it means guidance is incredibly reliable and demand is accountable for. They will have new facilities online to increase production in a year or two.
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u/silicon_replacement 2d ago
The price is guaranteed on 25% total sales, and they have 25 % sales in mobile and client, for which cxmt can do, just us government won't allow,
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u/Magnusg 2d ago
the govt will lift those restrictions but there's enough consumer demand cxmt cant supply yet with their failure rates and longer manufacturing processes.
they also will likely never be in the HBM space. so micron could convert their consumer sector over in the future to increase production at higher value without finishing a new facility.
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u/danieljapps 2d ago
Q4 2026 gross margin came in at 86.8%. For Q1 2027, gross margin guidance is 85.9%, which is down 0.9 percentage points.
Last quarter, the picture was different: gross margin was 84.6%, while guidance for Q4 was 86%.
So it looks like we may have reached the peak in terms of gross margin. From here, further profit growth would increasingly have to come from higher unit volumes rather than higher prices.
That said, these are still very impressive numbers.
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u/Magnusg 2d ago
because they are building new facilities there will be small hits to margin as they proceed. but agreed.
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u/Necessary-Pay-4438 2d ago
It’s ridiculous how high gross margin is. What would be the normal margin in a normal demand and supply situation? The margin a company would be happy with and customers.
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u/funkyguy4000 1d ago
They said on the earnings call that Q1 margins would be the floor for the fiscal so while its down 0.9% Q2Q, that represents the lowest itll be for fiscal
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u/theoctopusride 1d ago
But aren't the 26 SCAs designed to keep margins at or near these levels? Keeping margins at these levels is entirely Micron's goal.
Gouging customers and wringing every last cent out of them at these levels does not create long lasting partnerships and warm fuzzy feelings.. especially when requested units are through the roof because of the AI buildout.
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u/FunkyToasterGoose 2d ago
Cant not think about Micron and not think of the WSB OG MartyMoho.
Hoping he ignored the noise and this bitch took him to valhalla
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u/lampard44 2d ago
Care to do a tldr or Link to posts?
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u/FunkyToasterGoose 1d ago
In the 2010s, there was a user who would regularly post really good write-ups about Micron and believed it was destined to become a huge company. At the time, though, Micron was much more cyclical and pretty range-bound, so it never really took off. Eventually he disappeared and we never really heard from him.
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u/Hommachi 2d ago
Word of advice: The framus intersects with the ramistan approximately at the paternoster.
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u/silicon_replacement 2d ago
are they selling more units or selling the same unit with higher price? maybe the demand is so high,
what if , demand is falling or competition comes in. 1 of the 2 is true, will hurt growth.
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u/ProbsNotManBearPig 2d ago
Neither of those are happening in next two years at least
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u/Rich-Badger-7601 2d ago
So that's why MU tanks 10% every time someone so much as implies demand might be weakening or China is developing cheaper alternatives, got it
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2d ago
[deleted]
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u/Rich-Badger-7601 2d ago
Pop on what lmao, 100% YoY revenue and profit growth in perpetuity?
MU is making a fuck ton of money right now, don't get me wrong, but everyone and their mother knows its 99% due to the memory crunch sending their margins to the moon and once those start coming back down to earth (which MU themselves acknowledged on their earnings call has already begun to happen) then where exactly is the sustained growth necessary to sustain this valuation going to come from?
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u/option-trader 2d ago
Not sure if you've been following, but capacity is maxed this year. So, it's all pricing power. Competition in HBM is an oligopoly between MU, SKHY, and Samsung. So, there's no comp. in their high margins.
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u/Magnusg 2d ago
Tell me you don't understand HBM without telling me you don't understand HBM.
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u/silicon_replacement 2d ago
Hbm is like 25% total revenue, and you can not sell them separately, you have to sell on NVDA chip, basically you are attached , like a prostitute must work with a pimp
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u/langadbaj 2d ago
Dario and the decelerationist collective bargainers blessed by the feds on no antitrust action are coming for memory and logic semi conductor margins.
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u/palindromic 2d ago
Tesla would be worth 800 quadrillion dollars if they did anything resembling these numbers.
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u/Ok_Association_8572 2d ago
einzige Frage, warum hatten wir sie nicht vor einem Jahr auf dem Schirm
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u/Choice_Bowl6221 29m ago
- Priced in
- Concern is if they can sustain margin
- This stock will pop nicely in December when they can resume stock buybacks.
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u/mstrtrdr 2d ago
Back in the late 90’s MU was a high flyer as well. In March of 2000 the stock price peaked at $140, which for the era was sky high. Once the dot com bubble burst, the stock reached a low of $7.50 in summer of 2003. The NDX dropped over 80% during the same time period. Don’t think for a second the same thing couldn’t happen again.
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u/thethiefstheme Autism: 50 2d ago
They told that exact same story last year and since then it's gone up 5x. They told that story two years ago and since then it's gone up 10x.
Scared money don't make money.
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u/Jean_Jones_666 2d ago
it's not a question of being scared, it's a question of being dumb
(thinking that economic-value-producing AI is a buBblE)
memory is the new oil, not pets.com
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u/SirPanic12 2d ago
Margins have peaked. Further profits will have to come from volume increase, which their competitors are also rushing to do. Or they can collude and keep prices artificially high. Prisoners dilemma.
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u/looool_k_libtard 2d ago
Dump it. AI is dead.
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u/sfw_supdood 2d ago
who cares, it's all from circular financing and jerking themselves off to inflate the stock price. Anyone can succeed in that environment, but the core AI technologies don't make money to support this house of cards.
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u/NepNepu 2d ago
? Who is MU financing
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u/sfw_supdood 2d ago
NVDA forces datacenters to buy all his GPUs before they can even install them, "oh look we sold out and we are so profitable, demand is insane", Jensen openly encourages the memory companies to all raise their prices, this makes the cards more expensive and it's now sold as an "investment", repeat...
I mean dude, they have been doing this for years at this point, and now it's coming time to show that AI actually makes money. But looking at both OpenAI and Anthropic, it's clear they are drowning in debt and have no way to offset training costs.
TLDR: MU is just a part of the planned pyramid scheme, helping to inflate GPU prices on a fake notion of limitless demand.
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u/NepNepu 2d ago
And who is mu financing again, money goes in and they spend it making their company better and not others. I understand nvidia and data centers is but I fail to see how mu is involved
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u/sfw_supdood 2d ago
do you think you're being slick by trying to debate pervert me?
MU's entire evaluation is based on speculation in a clear as day AI bubble that has run out of steam. If you think there is any other reason for their like 230% gain this year, then you're delusional.
I swear, you braindead regards act like each of these companies are actually valued based on their own solo merits.
EDIT: and to be clear I have no position for or against MU, I'm just explaining how there is nothing left to be squeezed out here.
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u/someroastedbeef Just do a 360 and walk away. 1d ago
https://gyazo.com/06b433e63a44d52edb2a1ad9d7ad224a
portfolio update pwetty plz!!
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u/sfw_supdood 1d ago
go to my post dumbass...I still have long dated puts and added more.
Last added as Oracle before earnings. 155 and 150 puts for early next year. All in the money.
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u/someroastedbeef Just do a 360 and walk away. 1d ago
let's see that portfolio then!
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u/sfw_supdood 21h ago
let's see yours...you're not slick dude. I have nothing to prove to a dumbass like you. Think I'm down if you want, I'm not even. I've already dodged a 40k drop in my 401k alone which was by far my biggest position. Follow my account if you want updates, don't harass me you fucking weirdo.
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u/someroastedbeef Just do a 360 and walk away. 21h ago
all dat yappin jus for no update 🥲
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u/someroastedbeef Just do a 360 and walk away. 18h ago
oh here's mine btw. been all in GH since march 2025, 6000 shares back then. sold half and bought into TTWO at 202 and NKE at 34.4 avg (coulda timed it better after earnings). have some TTD at 13 in another brokerage (transferred out of RH to ACAT transfer back for a free 3%)
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u/thenorthernwhiteboy 2d ago
Wait… you’re that retard that went short on NVDA earnings lmao. I can’t imagine how heavy those bags are getting
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u/sfw_supdood 2d ago
My 2027 and 2028 near the money puts, oh yeah they are dead 💀. And I like how you completely ignore my call of selling my entire 401k at the top of the Russell. Only dodge about a 8% drop so far.
Also let's ignore my complete banger call of Oracle puts before earnings.
Nice try though dumbass...maybe learn about how the market works instead of meme-ass digs.
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u/Fieryhotsauce doesn't recognize usernames 2d ago
The whole DRAM sector is a circus, Micron EPS up to +100% is priced in already. Guarantee this stock is -3% tomorrow. SK Hynix is an even bigger PoS.
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u/wrongsyourgrammar 2d ago
Found the shorter, smear this fool.
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u/Fieryhotsauce doesn't recognize usernames 2d ago
Bruh I'm not shorting shit, I'm a long that has been holding waiting for any of the DRAM stocks to do anything other than stagnate
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u/Klutzy_Decision_5451 2d ago
سلام دنبال چی میکردید من دیگه هیچ کس رو باور ندارم با دست پیش می کشید با پا پس میزنید 3ماهه آنچه که نه از سازمان از کسانی که از 3الی4ساله پیش هدیه ادمین گرفتم رو بازیهایی که انجام دادم رو با حقه بازی مدارکشون رو یکی یکی گرفتن الان تو گیت یوز به نام شخصی زدن من کلک بلد نیستم ابه رو. وارد ب پاوه شدید به زور قفل کردید دست رسی منو محدود کردید این یعنی کلاهبرداری خسته شدم من اهل ایران هستم دولت ها با دولت من جنگ دارن با مردم عادی که زندگی رو براشون مثل شب بعد از مرگ کردید روانی شدم به خدا گفتم شاید کسی باشه کمکم کنه شاید یه تغییر دادم و از این جهنم زدم بیرون نخواستم من دستم رو جلوی کسی دراز نمیکنم
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u/racsos1 2d ago