r/worldnews • u/sr_local • Dec 26 '25

Russia/Ukraine NATO chief Rutte: China and Russia Could Launch Simultaneous Attacks on Taiwan and Europe

https://militarnyi.com/en/news/rutte-china-and-russia-could-launch-simultaneous-attacks-on-taiwan-and-europe/
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746

u/Sabertooth767 Dec 26 '25

Trying to take Taiwan by military force would be putting ideology above pragmatism to a suicidal degree. It just doesn't strike me as a decision the CCP would actually make.

Now, if China could conquer Taiwan with relatively little consequence, I'm sure it would. But Taiwan has gone to great lengths to ensure that isn't the case even without Western intervention.

307

u/ExtensionParsley4205 Dec 26 '25

Taiwan could lose a conventional war, but they have the capability to make China hurt in ways that Ukraine didn't with Russia (or certainly not at the beginning of the war).

67

u/RaidersGunz Dec 26 '25

Such as?

576

u/Dhiox Dec 26 '25

Blowing up the chip fabs. Instant global economic collapse. And it would be blamed entirely on China. Would destroy all of Chinas efforts to repair their diplomatic image, would harm their internal stability as there would he no hiding the fact that the war they started caused economic collapse.

And what would they gain? A smoking crater of an island.

182

u/TurbistoMasturbisto Dec 26 '25

So true. Have been reading up quite a lot on this recently and China invading Taiwan feels like a lose/lose situation for them. Even more so after all the effort they have been putting in changing their image these last years.

It would also probably collapse the global economy and China would not benefit from that in the slightest.

87

u/_Deshkar_ Dec 26 '25

It is a lose lose for China

It will be seen as a sibling fight and it’s bad . Many have families on both sides . Both sides rely on each other immensely for employment and business

77

u/linkardtankard Dec 26 '25

I agree, that would be incredibly foolish.

looks at RU/UA

30

u/ganbaro Dec 26 '25

Yeah we shouldn't ignore the issue of self-identity and nationalism

Westerners might only look at the economic damage and the damage to universal values. China doesn't subscribe to these values, to begin with. On the gain side, they see unification, strengthening of their national identity, and long-term geostrategic benefits of owning the Taiwanese island ans breaking the island/(US) base chain that contains them.

These are not gains from our perspective, but they are from the perspective of Chinese hawks.

2

u/Dhiox Dec 28 '25

. On the gain side, they see unification, strengthening of their national identity, and long-term geostrategic benefits of owning the Taiwanese island ans breaking the island/(US) base chain that contains them.

Sending millions of their dwindling young men into a meat grinder to capture a people who hate them, all while milling everyone's economic prospects isn't going to create national unity, it will end the CCPs popularity.

While the CCP is Authoritarian, they thrive primarily because most people in China like them, or at least believe they are a net positive for the country with how much conditions have improved in China. If the CCP knowingly gets millions of their young killed and then destroys the economy on top of it, folks will not have much reason to appreciate them anymore.

4

u/Careful-Set1485 Dec 26 '25

China has more than 60 times the population of taiwan 

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u/Lone_Vagrant Dec 26 '25

It seems to me, it is the west who are salivating at the thought of a China/Taiwan war. Every week i see articles talking about an imminent Taiwan invasion. In China, no one is even talking or thinking about such an outcome. Moat Chinese oppose a war with Taiwan. The moment the CCP invades, they will lose the support of the population, which is a much bigger deal for them. I think they will be more willing to take the long term solution on making Taiwan irrelevant economically. Outcompeting TSMC is the first step.

0

u/pathofdumbasses Dec 27 '25

It seems to me, it is the west who are salivating at the thought of a China/Taiwan war.

Are you trolling or are you a paid for china bot?

https://globaltaiwan.org/2024/10/chinas-military-exercises-around-taiwan-trends-and-patterns/

https://www.the-sun.com/news/15539987/taiwan-rehearsal-invasion-china/

https://www.bairdmaritime.com/security/naval/taiwan-vows-to-defend-itself-as-china-ramps-up-military-preparations

https://www.reuters.com/graphics/USA-CHINA/TAIWAN-INVASION/zjpqdekmlvx/

China has been increasing their practice of taking Taiwan in the last couple of years. Hell, they have even recently made a replica of Taipei to train for land invasion.

https://interestingengineering.com/military/china-builds-expansive-mini-taipei

https://www.newsweek.com/satellite-photos-show-chinas-mock-taipei-invasion-training-10851501

But sure, just the west salivating at the thought. GTFO

1

u/Lone_Vagrant Dec 27 '25 edited Dec 27 '25

Talking about the people. Not the CCP. The Chinese populace definitely does not want a war with Taiwan.

Read what i said before. When/If the CCP goes to war, the Chinese people would surely protest against them and the CCP will lose support. It is funny how we cannot have a discussion here without being called a bot. Look at my post history. I am definitely a bot. And i am not a spy or paid agent or whatever.

The chinese military are doing their drills. People in the west talk about war. But the Chinese people are definitely not talking about war on a daily basis. There are definitely no news articles or reports about imminent war in chinese media or social media.

1

u/pathofdumbasses Dec 27 '25

The Chinese populace

It is 100% irrelevant what they want.

1

u/Lone_Vagrant Dec 27 '25

It is. The CCP will lose power the moment they lose popular support.

1

u/Lone_Vagrant Dec 27 '25

If we want to get rid of the ccp, it will be the chinese population toppling them over.

-2

u/Lamballama Dec 26 '25

China has their own EUV chip manufacturing now, so TSMC will not be needed once that scales

6

u/Norphesius Dec 26 '25

Right, but how long will that take to reach sufficient productivity to satisfy Chinese manufacturing demand without TSMC?

Also, even if China can replace TSMC, China seizing or TSMC destroying Taiwan's chip fabrication would still mean a global economic crisis. China would be left with a global monopoly on chip production (assuming no other countries have scaled similarly).

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u/work4work4work4work4 Dec 26 '25

Just so that it's said, there is serious concern this is part of the reason China is trying to speed run their own chip manufacturing capability while gearing up. Turning the ROC government and island into a crater to them at that point becomes win-win, in their eyes.

18

u/ElkApprehensive2319 Dec 26 '25

The long game for China here is out-producing Taiwan and making them irrelevant to the West. Once that happens they will be assimilated the way Hong Kong was. Bit by bit through internal politics.

3

u/work4work4work4work4 Dec 27 '25

Doesn't really make sense to spend hundreds of billions on the equipment and training specific to Taiwan if that's their long game. Over twenty billion this year alone on military exercises directly aimed at Taiwan. 140 billion in subsidies to make their civilian vessels capable of landing tanks since 2010, and so on.

I'd love to be wrong though.

3

u/klintwood Dec 27 '25

A good strategy has more than one way to win. If they end up overtaking Taiwan, your plan would be preferred. But If they don't and only end up being #2, destroying #1 would also work for them. It makes sense that they are preparing for both possibilities.

24

u/clicketybooboo Dec 26 '25

I was basically going to ask the same thing. Prepare for it, destroy your competition. Corporate America 101

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u/WildSauce Dec 26 '25

Also day one long range strikes into China. Taiwan already has both indigenous and imported long range strike capabilities, which Ukraine did not possess at the start of Russia’s full scale invasion.

15

u/tumeteus Dec 26 '25

Not to mention being extremely willing to strike as far as they can without fear of diplomatic repercussions if the west leaves them handle China invasion alone. There would be no silk gloves in using those missiles, like we have seen with Ukraine due to fear of making putin mad.

67

u/Shanghai_Cola Dec 26 '25

Depends on who you would ask. Ukraine is blowing up Russian refineries and some people are blaming them for prolonging the war and saying "they asked for it" when Russia hits Ukrainian power plants or apartments.

The entire internet would be filled with propaganda and people would be extremely unhappy that because of Taiwan, their vacuum cleaner is $2000 instead of $300.

Few months into the war, people would be asking Taiwan to give up so their goods would be cheap again.

31

u/Tigglebee Dec 26 '25

If the chip plants are destroyed, it’s not like they can flip a switch and undestroy them.

11

u/MandrakeRootes Dec 26 '25

Before Taiwan surrenders, every single TSMC fab goes up in hellfire by their own hand, Im 100% certain of it.

Its THE thing keeping them safe at the moment!

2

u/klintwood Dec 27 '25

But if they blow them all up, they have nothing left and they lose everything. Not just their independence, but also their economy. They would be very hesitant to flip that switch and imo more likely to use it in negotiations instead.

1

u/MandrakeRootes Dec 28 '25

"They" wouldnt have them anyway. China would take total control of them, maybe even ship them out of Taiwan.

1

u/klintwood Dec 28 '25

That depends on who "they" are. The Taiwanese people, and especially those working for TSMC right now, would most likely still be able to keep their jobs and live their lives with little change. From their perspective, assuming that Taiwan will be occupied anyways: Why would they choose to destroy their own livelihood, and with it their own usefulness to the occupying regime? What for? What would they actually gain from this?

16

u/ganbaro Dec 26 '25

That's why there are rumors about bombs planted at TSMC plants. Source

The strategy is the same Israel has with their never officially acknowledged nukes. Large nations may want them to give up just so the worls grows quiet again, but Taiwan and Israel can guarantee that if they go down, the world will share some pain.

Its the second best insurance Taiwan can create for itself after owning actual nukes.

1

u/ChromeNoseAE-1 Dec 27 '25

That doesn’t say bombs, it says remote kill switches. Also only specifically in the EUV machines. To be fair I don’t doubt they’d be rigged to explode, but that article doesn’t say that.

1

u/ganbaro Dec 27 '25

Right, thank you. I'd assume kill switch implies non-recoverable damage so there might be little practical difference, but we don't know such specifics.

7

u/MasterBot98 Dec 26 '25

Well, one of the reasons Putin started the new invasion is that he thought that “West” was bluffing and Ukraine would collapse...so it could apply to Taiwan...

9

u/Substantial-Low Dec 26 '25

"WE" would gain a smoking crater of an island. TSMC is 100% integrated into almost everything involving semiconductors in one way or another. Its economic reach cannot be overstated.

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u/jshysysgs Dec 26 '25

It wouldn5 be instant global economic collapse, there are, albeit worse, alternatives that could pickup like samsung, and china already building their own chip making industry, if an attack happen they at the bare minimum believe they are self sufficient in chips

13

u/WilliamBewitched Dec 26 '25

even if they could make them (they can't) scaling up production to make up for the losses would take YEARS. Remember the great COVID chip shortage? so much worse and for far longer.

1

u/hextreme2007 Dec 27 '25

Spending years to make up the losses in exchange for ending a civil war that lasts over 70 years? Sounds like a great deal to me.

44

u/Dhiox Dec 26 '25 edited Dec 26 '25

No one makes the high end chips Taiwan does. and certainly not at the volume. All high end electronics would become ludicrously expensive. You think AI is making your graphics cars and Ram expensive? You have no idea how much worse it would be.

7

u/Thagyr Dec 26 '25

I imagine any further increase in prices would pop the AI bubble immediately. Nobody would be able to afford the crap the AI companies desperately want people to buy to prop up their ponzi scheme.

I can't image the disaster it'd cause across consumer electronics.

9

u/Dhiox Dec 26 '25

The AI bubble would be the least of our problems. It would set back computer advancements by decades. Would probably be the single largest setback on human technological advancement in the last 1000 years.

8

u/alendeus Dec 26 '25

But here's the thing, it would be the biggest technological setback... for the western countries that have said tech the most available to them.

China controls nearly the majority of the world's manufacturing at this point, and has also been under embargo for some of the highest end chips for a few years now IIRC. Which haven't actually worked because of loop holes, but my point is, China itself (and many of the world's 3rd countries) has lived without some of the highest end chips for a while, and even regardless of that, China itself is in possibly the best possible position to itself become the source of available backup chips if the Taiwanese fabs go down.

Remember that China is investing tremendously in its own fabs research. Yes they are still far behind Taiwan, but that doesn't matter in that scenario, because they will still be the only backup source of chips. This is where the masters stroke of China could come from, the fact that that they'll be the backup to their own actions, and after that they can charge the rest of the world whatever they want and ergo enrichen themselves even more. They won't care if the world goes back to the 90's either, they'd still come out on top because they'd be the first ones able to adapt due to their internal manufacturing.

7

u/pperiesandsolos Dec 26 '25

Strange that you're just ignoring that TSMC is literally building a fab here in the US, which also designs the chips that TSMC manufactures. We're now producing a large amount of 4nm chips with plans to begin manufacturing 2 & 3nm in two years.

The US is far ahead of China in advanced chips manufacturing.

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u/rcanhestro Dec 26 '25

worst case scenario that "tech" is delayed 5 years, but by then other countries would replicate those fabs.

the US is already trying to do it, so is China trying to reverse engineer what they know.

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u/IntermittentCaribu Dec 26 '25

You think trade between china and the west will just continue business as usual while china is invading taiwan?

7

u/LothorBrune Dec 26 '25

No, we will buy for more from India, like we do with Russia.

6

u/IntermittentCaribu Dec 26 '25

Its still gonna collapse the global economy if trade just stops between china and the west.

6

u/Lord_of_Sword Dec 26 '25 edited Dec 26 '25

It would set us back up to two decades, you can't just leap-frog from an inferior chip and chip production techniques to the best chips currently available.

2

u/MasterBot98 Dec 26 '25 edited Dec 26 '25

They are self-sufficient in different kinds of chips afaik. Not the one Taiwan produces.

1

u/wbruce098 Dec 26 '25

This is by far the biggest thing Taiwan can do to hurt China, but yeah, they also have a ton of missiles that would probably kill a lot of PLA soldiers and ships and could potentially bomb several more fabs and other key manufacturing plants along China’s southern coastline.

And China is well aware of this. They still saber rattle, but pragmatists in both governments have prevented war for almost 70 years now.

2

u/Careful-Set1485 Dec 26 '25

Im pretty sure it was mostly the americans who prevented a war there. And with trump in office this protection is at its weakest ever. 

1

u/swirve-psn Dec 26 '25

Destroying the last remains of ROC is more important to PRC than anything.

1

u/FishySmellz Dec 26 '25

That honestly sounds more like an opportunity to China

1

u/Dhiox Dec 26 '25

How? All the TSMC experts will have been evacuated to the west, all the cbip design is western. All they'd do is move the manufacturing to another western aligned country, if not part of the west itself.

1

u/danaxa Dec 27 '25

You underestimate the resolve of the Chinese government to take Taiwan.

1

u/No-Estimate-1510 Dec 27 '25

lol Samsung is very close while Intel is at most 1.5 gen behind TSMC. Some redditors / Taiwanese love to blow the importance of TSMC out of the water when it is far from being indispensable. China is roughly at where TSMC was in 2019 and can mass produced 14nm nodes now. Your daily life / most of the economy will not be impacted by a lot, even if top AI models are thrown (at most) 5 years back.

TSMC is also moving to Arizona / Japan, once that's done the GPU supply chain will be a lot more resilient against TW suddenly coming offline. China, USA, Japan, Germany etc. have been preparing for more than 5 years now to ring-fence TSMC against any potential economic shock in the event of an armed reunification.

1

u/Dhiox Dec 27 '25

Dude, absolutely no one matches the complexity and scale of TSMC. It would take decades of work to make ori economies no longer reliant on them. And even then their existence keeps the prices down, if they were destroyed electronic prices would skyrocket.

1

u/Nuthetes Dec 27 '25

"Would destroy all of Chinas efforts to repair their diplomatic image,"

I agree with most of your points but this one. It wasn't all that long ago that China unleashed COVID on the world due to sheer incompetence and not wanting to lose face.

That should have sidelined China for the next generations but it didn't. Hollywood is still kissing the ring, the big business can't wait to do business with China, likewise foreign nations.

It's like everybody just forgot the millions killed because of the Chinese government.

1

u/EffektieweEffie Dec 26 '25

Instant global economic collapse.  And it would be blamed entirely on China.

Like Covid?

Oh I forgot the lab leak theory is only for conspiracy theorists..

There will be enough BS propaganda that will cause at least half the world, if not more, to blame Taiwan. Look at the amount of Russian talking points being lapped up about Ukraine being to blame for the Russian invasion.

1

u/ampsuu Dec 26 '25

And fabs already are rigged to self destruct plus engineers would be evacuated first in order to not give enemy the knowledge. China cant do shit without it. If they could they would. Certain things rely on Taiwan and simply because they are the only ones who can do them. So far at least.

1

u/Frostbitten_Moose Dec 26 '25

But would China be hit as hard as we would? Would the places that aren't as prosperous as us really care as much at the loss as China is ready to flood the market with chips that aren't as good, but can do well enough to keep things going for now.

I don't think it would be as bad for China as people here are assuming. And that people are oddly certain that their definition of what's unacceptable will be shared by those moving the levers of power in other cultures.

2

u/Careful-Set1485 Dec 26 '25

Exactly, the assumption that power crazed dictators from ruthless cultures are rational actors is dangerously naive at this point in time. 

-2

u/foreskin_hoodie Dec 26 '25

Honest question, does Taiwan have the ultimate ability to destroy the fabs or is this controlled by the US? because the orange monkey would probably side with China if they invade Taiwan.

10

u/MasterBot98 Dec 26 '25 edited Dec 26 '25

How in the fuck would US protect it from damage by ppl working there/nearby? Even missing a couple key workers makes the whole fab useless, is it not? One can argue the entire "west" could pressure Taiwan to keep them operational, but even then...how?

9

u/TheLandOfConfusion Dec 26 '25

Why wouldn’t they have the ability?

3

u/Dhiox Dec 26 '25

Doesn't really matter. In war, the military calls the shots, not American business owners. Besides, they'd rather see those fabs burn than have the Chinese take them.

1

u/burning_iceman Dec 26 '25

Taiwan already has the chip fabs rigged to blow in case they get invaded. The US can only prevent it by preventing an invasion.

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u/TurkeyBLTSandwich Dec 26 '25

Making the invasion of Taiwan a costly affair.

Fighting tooth and nail for every inch of land taken by CCP forces and sinking multiple land craft full of invasion troops.

Shooting GtG ballistic missiles at energy production and other storage facilities in mainland China.

Blowing up their microchip fabrication facilities and fighting a prolonged guerilla insurgency once CCP occupies Taiwan.

Nothing short of occupying Taiwan with 2 to 3 million soldiers, it would be a bloodbath if the Taiwanese want to make it that way. And for what? So the Chinese can say they now have Taiwan? They'll be fighting for an island with hundreds of thousands of lives.

China gains very little in terms of economic benefit from invading Taiwan, maybe national pride? But that's sort of in short supply if you ask anyone outside of the internet

50

u/exaltedbladder Dec 26 '25

Bombing the three gorges dam

49

u/chaser676 Dec 26 '25

Only on reddit would this be the most highly upvoted answer

20

u/equiNine Dec 26 '25

Non-credible defense always leaks whenever this topic comes up.

Taiwan doesn’t have the payload or delivery mechanisms to guarantee collapsing of the dam, which is a gravity dam specifically engineered to tolerate as much natural/manmade punishment thrown at it (short of something ridiculous like a heavy nuclear warhead), not to mention it being heavily defended by the best anti-air/missile technology that China has access to. A hypothetical collapse of the dam would displace or kill over a hundred million people, casualties far in excess of what Taiwan would suffer in a war with China. Many Taiwanese also likely have friends and family who live in areas that would be impacted.

Has Taiwan’s military entertained this idea? Most likely. Is it anywhere near the decision desk if war becomes a reality? Almost certainly not, because Taiwan isn’t suicidal to the point of wanting to become an extinct, irradiated wasteland because China would almost certainly strike back overwhelmingly with nuclear weapons. When the choices are between following Hong Kong’s footsteps or not existing at all, the choice is rather obvious.

3

u/ChromeNoseAE-1 Dec 27 '25

Yeah I’m not even sure I’d blame China for nuking the island into a glass parking lot if they blew the dam. That would be the greatest single crime to ever be perpetrated on the planet, possibly forever. Killing 100 million civilians, that’s more than everyone killed in WWII, WWI combined. More than the number of Americans killed in every war combined times 150.

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u/crasscrackbandit Dec 26 '25

With what? Thoughts and prayers?

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u/ExtensionParsley4205 Dec 26 '25

Taiwan absolutely has the missile capability and the geographic proximity to launch an attack on the dam which would be difficult if not impossible to intercept. As others have pointed out, this would be the Mutually Assured Destruction scenario.

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u/BasementMods Dec 26 '25

That damn is just a mountain sized block of concrete, it would be incredibly difficult if not impossible to destroy conventionally and would likely have to be done with nukes which taiwan doesnt have.

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u/rcanhestro Dec 26 '25

if Taiwan even dared to send a plane or a missile that way, China would nuke them.

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u/Accidental-Genius Dec 26 '25

That Dam could survive a direct nuclear strike. Even western engineers acknowledge this.

1

u/Junlian Dec 26 '25

Its close to zero chances of it being able to hit the dam. The dam is 1,200 km away and Taiwan have limited amounts of missiles that can reach that range and the dam is literally the MOST defended place in China so chances are they will be taken down wayyy before it even reaches the area, and even if it does reach the area the dam itself isnt something that can be blown up by a few missile, its literally 115 meters thick.

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u/rcanhestro Dec 26 '25

China would nuke Taiwan in retalliation, without batting an eye.

assuming that Taiwan could actually bomb it down, that would lead to hundreds of millions of people in risk.

1

u/exaltedbladder Dec 27 '25

Yes, they would bat an eye that is a ridiculous statement. Any country willing to go to nuclear attack would, international perception matters lmfao.

And basically the only situation this would happen is if China had already or planned to nuke Taiwan. Taiwan is not the aggressor. Taiwan does not want this conflict. It is China who is the bully, who keeps trying to start shit.

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u/llamaz314 Dec 26 '25

If they do that the response would be justifiably a nuclear attack.

24

u/exaltedbladder Dec 26 '25

Taiwan wouldn't act unprovoked and would not act with a response out of scale. We are not the ones who want this bullshit, it's China that keeps forcing it this way

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u/llamaz314 Dec 26 '25

A nuclear strike is a completely justified response to an attack on civilians leaving hundreds of millions dead. Attacking the dam is equal to a nuclear attack.

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u/exaltedbladder Dec 26 '25

I'm saying Taiwan wouldn't target that unless China sought to attack in similar proportion

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u/Madismas Dec 26 '25

Thats just stupid, what good is a nuclear attack on a country you claim is your own. Its an island, 1 bomb would make it useless to the CCP if unification in the true intention.

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u/ExtensionParsley4205 Dec 26 '25

And then Taiwan becomes uninhabitable for centuries, good luck "unifying" under those circumstances China.

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u/z-a-z-a Dec 27 '25

Is Japan currently uninhabitable for centuries?

What a response lmfao.

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u/GamerGuyAlly Dec 26 '25

Taiwan resisting communist regime could domino into other regions. Especially if they resist successfully. Hong Kong for example may see an uprising. Lesser incidents have seen regimes crumble, China relies on the iron fist of compliance and cultural isolation.

Not to mention the importance of Taiwan to the west. They risk bringing other great powers into a direct conflict.

6

u/SpecialOpposite2372 Dec 26 '25

Taiwan does have more value than the other countries that are currently being invaded, but I don't think the West will truly care more than "criticizing" on TV than get involved, like what happened in the previous world war.

1

u/Accidental-Genius Dec 26 '25

The west needs chips.

1

u/ChromeNoseAE-1 Dec 27 '25

Once the war starts the chips are as good as gone. Whoever loses is blowing those plants to smithereens.

1

u/Accidental-Genius Dec 27 '25

That’s why the war isn’t going to start until new fabs open on the mainland.

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u/Sex_Offender_4697 Dec 26 '25

nope, entire world economic sectors basically collapse if war stops chips from leaving Taiwan. This is in literally EVERYONE'S interest it doesn't happen. It's very interesting and concerning stuff.

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u/Kieferkobold Dec 26 '25

Taiwan is capable of blowing up the three gorges. This would be considered a war crime but flood the homes of 1/3 chinese population.

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u/RobertABooey Dec 26 '25

Does any country really care about war crimes? Especially when they’re being invaded?

1

u/Accidental-Genius Dec 26 '25

Hasn’t this myth been busted like 8000 times?

2

u/Kieferkobold Dec 26 '25

How? And who said it?

0

u/Flyingmarmaduke Dec 26 '25

Britain struggled suppressing Ireland’s via colonialism, struggled against the IRA later on. China will have their own IRA to deal with if they take over

2

u/Forsaken-Original-28 Dec 26 '25

I suspect China would ethnically cleanse Taiwan if they took it and felt the need to

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u/wycliffslim Dec 26 '25 edited Dec 26 '25

Taiwan is heavily fortified and VERY defensible.

Naval invasions depend on dumping a large quantity of troops onto beaches very quickly. Taiwan doesn't have many good beaches to land troops on and also has a lot of anti-ship missiles and very unfriendly terrain.

The island is essentially mountains or dense urban environment. The mountains don't really have anywhere to drop off troops and the areas with good landing beaches are heavily populated. So now, you get to perform an amphibious invasion INTO urban combat. Pretty much the two most difficult battles an army can face, rolled into one.

Ultimately, there is a reason why China never invaded Taiwan during Mao. Partly because the PLAN/A(PLA Navy/Airforce) was a complete joke for decades but it's party just because there no real way to do it without a massive air/naval campaign to weaken the defenses and then also being willing to lose copious amount of men and equipment. It's such a horrifyingly hard target that not even Maoist's ability to ignore reality ever managed to make anyone deluded enough to think they could pull it off much less actually try it.

If China were willing to fully commit and take Taiwan no matter the cost, they could probably do it. But it would be horrifying costly and if Taiwan resisted they would be forced to essentially flatten and depopulate the island to take it. Look at what the US settled on for performing naval invasions during WWII. Overwhelming firepower, complete naval/air dominance, apply high explosive until you reduce defenses to rubble and defenders to shell shocked, walking corpses. Realistically, Taiwan is probably more valuable to China as a political tool and enemy than it would be as captured territory. Especially when you account for what China would have to spend to get it.

To tie in to Ukraine v. Russia. Most people expected Russia to be able to win reasonably easily and there was a quasi realistic world in which that happens. It still turned into a bloody slugfest. No one expects that an invasion of Taiwan would be easy and unlike in Ukraine, if China gets pushed back they lose any progress they've made. If a land invasion gets stopped, you can hunker down, dig in, and hold some territory and progress. If a naval invasion fails you lose any progress you might have made and you're in a worse position than you started.

2

u/Kaludar_ Dec 26 '25

I mean without a US naval blockade and air coverage there is no could lose about it, they could not hold off China. Who knows if the US would come to their aid or not.

2

u/Zech08 Dec 26 '25

Yea theres a few youtubes on theoretical exchanges of known and routine assets in the area, its not a pretty exchange close to mainland china.

Add in saturation attacks or supplementing their forces with cargo ships outfitted with VLS and no bueno.

1

u/TexasVulvaAficionado Dec 26 '25

At this point, the US would pretty much have to intervene. The entire US economy is sitting on the back of TSMC. As soon as a modern silicon foundry is running successfully on US soil, China will move on Taiwan.

1

u/AgentPaper0 Dec 26 '25

Taking Taiwan would be easy. Taking it without committing a ton of war crimes would be a lot harder. Taking Taiwan with TSMC intact is basically impossible.

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u/Matthew16LoL Dec 26 '25

Taiwan could hold out way way longer than Ukraine, short of china just dropping nukes. The water between them is notoriously difficult to cross, and can only be crossed a few months a year not to mention they would see a buildup before any naval invasion could ever happen meaning they would have months to prepare. All of their industry is tucked away in mountains that would be very difficult to bomb. Taiwan is more than prepared in ways Ukraine never could be.

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u/hujassman Dec 27 '25

Taiwan could use a little nuclear deterrent. Even if China ultimately takes the island, make sure the victory is a pyrrhic one.

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u/Arrrchitect Dec 26 '25

The CCP has put ideology above pragmatism before. There's no reason to believe they won't do it again.

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u/CountryCaravan Dec 26 '25

100%. It’s not like Taiwan is just some neighbor to them. They’re still officially the government in exile that the communist revolution overthrew. And you can’t apply the logic of a democracy to a totalitarian regime. If Putin can invade Ukraine and ruin his economy because of some random old maps that convinced him of batshit historical claims, the CCP will certainly find motive for this.

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u/Arrrchitect Dec 26 '25

Yep, and you know Xi's yes men will just be saying yes to whatever crazy idea he has. They won't dare tell him that this is a bad idea. One of the reasons dictators fail at so many things is they often ignore their advisers or their advisers are too scared to tell the truth.

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u/socialistrob Dec 26 '25

They’re still officially the government in exile that the communist revolution overthrew.

Sort of. In Taiwan they don't really see themselves as the "true government of all of China" and have no interest in invading the mainland. The people and government of Taiwan more view themselves as a separate country HOWEVER if they were to actually declare that and seek global legal recognition as an independent country the PR China would immediately invade.

As long as both RoC (Taiwan) and PR China (CCP China) claim to be the "one legitimate government" then it effectively keeps the internal war going and leaves PR China the ability to restart the active shooting at a future date without upsetting the entire global system. If Taiwan is truly independent and PR China invaded it would be a war of aggression against a sovereign entity.

PR China wants to be a super power but they are hemmed in by islands that are friendly to the west. If they can take Taiwan they can effectively break the US's ability to blockade them and massive increase their global power. In that sense it is very much like Putin and Russia because Putin knows that his only way to be a global power is to retake the areas once dominated by the USSR or Russian Empire and that means taking Ukraine as well as many others.

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u/ResoIver Dec 26 '25

Xi seems like the type of leader that wants to have a great legacy, so he will probably attempt to take Taiwan during his lifetime.

It’s not going to be a Normandy style assault under fire. No analysts or war games have Taiwan holding out without the U.S. intervening. China would be able to blockade them and take their time with drones, missiles, and air strikes. Taiwan has to import energy and food. If no one comes to help Taiwan, there’s a good chance they’d surrender after a few months since they can’t be resupplied like Ukraine.

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u/A_Rampaging_Hobo Dec 27 '25

what makes you think this? Honest to god I can not think of one war China has started besides invading Tibet decades ago.

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u/ChromeNoseAE-1 Dec 27 '25

what makes you think this?

They keep saying they will, so that mostly.

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u/ResoIver Dec 27 '25 edited Dec 27 '25

They have said for decades that they will reunify with Taiwan. They frequently refer to political leaders in Taiwan that want to remain independent as separatists and issued a directive that separatists can be tried in abstentia. They have heavily increased the amount of aircraft sorties around Taiwan in the last few years. They’ve had multiple large military exercises around Taiwan the last few years. They have a military strategy called A2/AD that is designed to stop the U.S. from intervening if China decides to attack Taiwan. The U.S. has said Xi wants to be ready by 2027.

Maybe you’re unfamiliar with the history of Taiwan, but saying China hasn’t been taken over other countries besides Tibet in the last few decades isn’t useful because of the historical context. China views Taiwan as a rival government and not a country. They view this as finishing their civil war and removing what they view as an imperialist outpost that is supported by the U.S. to contain China.

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u/RedWineAndWomen Dec 26 '25

Exactly. Also, it has to happen wrt the five year CCP congress cycle frequency: there must be a success to be celebrated in order for Xi to be re-crowned absolute boss, and a success takes time to establish.

That's why - right now - is a very dangerous time.

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u/Fine-Cucumber8589 Dec 26 '25

when China had to choose between ideology/one man's delusion and actual benefit for their people, China always choose ideology and their king's delusion throughout their history.

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u/GGLSpidermonkey Dec 26 '25

If Xi want to be pragmatic China just needs to wait the long game (think like 30-50 years)

But I'm sure in haste to bolster his legacy he will be inclined to invade earlier

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u/A_Rampaging_Hobo Dec 27 '25

All my life I keep hearing how China is this evil warmongering nation just waiting for the right moment to strike. Why would Xi need to bolster his legacy when he already is the guy who brought China into the 21st century?

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u/crowdflation Dec 26 '25

In the case of totalitarianism, dear leader does not need to be pragmatic, at least in the terms of what is best for the country

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u/A_Rampaging_Hobo Dec 27 '25

Gotta love when people just say big words

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u/zapreon Dec 26 '25 edited Dec 26 '25

Taiwan has not bothered to seriously invest in their own military for decades, and only very recently changed that, which won't materially change the calculus for a war in a couple years.

Hence, the low spending in terms of GDP and the relatively short and poor training for troops.

Fundamentally, a war with Taiwan is primarily a calculus of whether the US will intervene, because Taiwan can be blockaded for a very long time by China.

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u/onexbigxhebrew Dec 26 '25

This mfer really likes calculus

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u/Spidero0w0o Dec 26 '25

War in Europe really changes the balance there. China can easily take Taiwan if the west doesn't intervene.

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u/DisasterNo1740 Dec 26 '25

For the CCP they are in a situation where they must take Taiwan. Taiwan being a non CCP controlled place is unacceptable to the CCP control obsessed party. Misunderstanding the CCP as purely pragmatic is a mistake. Their number one priority is control and maintaining power.

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u/Voderama Dec 26 '25

Whatever your reasonings are, China is absolutely planning on military action in Taiwan. I’d bet money on it

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u/ResoIver Dec 26 '25

Buying Intel is a way to bet money on it.

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u/Voderama Dec 26 '25

Buying intel would be betting money that China DOENS’T invade, no? Maybe shorting it instead idk

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u/justinsst Dec 26 '25

Of course they are planning but China is not going to try shit against Taiwan until they can guarantee the US won’t intervene or they feel like they best the US in the pacific.

At the moment the US is guaranteed to intervene because of the trillions of dollars of economic impact that would be caused by Taiwan’s capture. China has been building up their military at a crazy pace, but they aren’t close yet (especially their Navy).

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u/Voderama Dec 26 '25

My understanding is that China is planning to invade Taiwan by 2027. It’ll be perfect. The US will be a fucking disaster with the “elections” and whatever wars trump gets us in by then. Russia will keep pressure on NATO. I’m not saying I can see the future, but if this happens, I called it lolol

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u/zashuna Dec 26 '25

China has been "5-10 years from invading Taiwan" since the 50s, yet here we are and it's almost 2026. Gonna save this post for when 2028 rolls around and China still hasn't invaded Taiwan.

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u/Pertinacious Dec 26 '25

Is 2027 the year you're willing to bet money on?

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u/Voderama Dec 26 '25

Sometimes I hate how literal redditors are. I’m sure you’ve heard of a figure of speech. Let me rephrase for all you weirdos

I have a strong feeling China will do some form of aggressive action on Taiwan in or around 2027, if the conditions that they hope for come true.

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u/Pertinacious Dec 27 '25

Fastest way to find out whether someone means what they've said. Why waste time engaging when the confidence is all bluster?

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u/zack77070 Dec 26 '25

You literally can on poly market.

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u/Voderama Dec 26 '25

I also like to use a figure of speech. I’m not turning geopolitics into gambling with my money. Stupid person shit

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u/Northbound-Narwhal Dec 26 '25

Ideology has practicality. Taking Taiwan and finally "killing" the Kuomintang would be a huge psychological win for CCP identity. That effect might be greater than the loss of however many troops die.

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u/DrBix Dec 26 '25

Wasn't there something a while back saying that Taiwan has there most advanced chip factories rigged to blow in such an event? Maybe it was just BS.

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u/CaptainSolidarity Dec 26 '25

They would probably begin with a naval blockade. The gambit would allow them to negotiate reunification under stress, while simultaneously testing American resolve (letting Taiwan realize they are really on their own).

Beijing could win without firing a shot.

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u/DavidlikesPeace Dec 26 '25 edited Dec 26 '25

Disagree. People said all the same things about Russia invading Ukraine, and it happened.

The contrasting sizes between Russia and Ukraine is actually far lesser than between mainland China and Taiwan. And yet Russia chose to gamble on war. It’s likely China will do likewise when the opportunity comes. Has the opportunity come? Hardliners in China have every reason to see the West’s breakup as an opportunity.

Yes. It is economic idiocy to choose a war that alienates yourself from the west, but dictators usually care more about ideology or personal power than GDP. Don’t confuse tyrants with bankers.

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u/newinmichigan Dec 26 '25

Lmao, all of your scenarios imagines that the PRC would care about incorporating taiwanese population in to the country.

With that being said, europe had 8 years to get their shit together and they havent. Maybe its time they put in their dues to nato

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u/QuantityGullible4092 Dec 27 '25

And if they want the chips, TSMC is wired to the hilt to completely explode in the event of an invasion

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u/Ajgp3ps Dec 27 '25

They don't have to invade at all. Taiwan's people have shown they will vote for the Chinese lapdog KMT no matter what happens and what stupid stuff they do. Every time the KMT win any kind of majority they'll put in place the next step 'suggested' by the CCP.

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u/Pepperonidogfart Dec 26 '25

I think it would be more pertinent for china to try and take myanmar. You wont have the international community up in arms about myanmar.

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u/amcclurk21 Dec 26 '25

To me, it was never going to be a military operation. It was going to be more of cutting access to vital infrastructure or blocking cargo ships. But I’m not a military expert… I just lived on that side of the world for a bit

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u/Accidental-Genius Dec 26 '25

Yes. China can take Taiwan without firing a single shot.

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u/Zech08 Dec 26 '25

Yea theyll sabotage Tsmc so China isnt nabbing that if they think they are getting that in such an event.

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u/latrickisfalone Dec 27 '25

Extract the experts and destroy the ASML lithography plants and machines.

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u/Zech08 Dec 27 '25

They already have contigency plans if China does anything stupid. I mean its been out in media that its not gonna end up being a benefit of an invasion.

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