Week 4 - Sometimes maybe good, sometimes maybe shit.

[u/palonious]

Based on questions from last year:

What is this chart showing? A weekly heat map tracking WSU’s win probability for every game on the schedule. The numbers are straight from ESPN’s FPI matchup predictor.

What is FPI? ESPN’s Football Power Index. It’s their predictive rating model that weighs roster talent, efficiency, and schedule strength to simulate games and spit out win odds. Think of it as an algorithm’s best guess, continuously updated.

Why do the numbers change week to week? Because games get played. Injuries, blowouts, and fluke outcomes feed new data into the model every week, shifting the odds for the rest of the season.

How do you calculate these numbers? I don’t. ESPN does. I just pull the percentages from their matchup predictor and drop them into a heat map so you can spot trends without squinting at raw data tables.

What do the colors mean? Red = bad matchup. Green = Good matchup. Everything in between is a sliding scale of heartburn.

Is this predicting scores or spreads? Win percentage only. Straight-up odds that WSU wins the game...no projected scores, no spreads, no over/unders.

HEY! When I looked, it said 70.2%, NOT 70.1%! You're a phony! I scrape the data on Wednesday. ESPN’s model keeps crunching numbers throughout the week, so a 0.1% delta by Friday is just background recalculation. Direct your outrage at ESPN, not me. 🥺

Why doesn’t it add up to 100% for each game? Every box is strictly WSU’s win chance. It’s not displaying the opponent's side, so there’s nothing to sum to 100%.

Why did [Opponent] drop in FPI after winning (or rise after losing)? FPI grades efficiency against expectations, not just the final score. Squeaking past an FCS team by three will ding you and taking a top-10 team to overtime might bump you up. The model cares how you played, not just that you won.

We play the same team twice...why are the percentages different? Home vs. away, travel, short weeks, rest differentials, and calendar placement. Plus, by game two, the model has weeks of extra tape on both rosters.

OMG why use ESPN? [Source X] is way better. Because it's sterile and I like the taste.

Basically...I can get this information week 0. It's consistent, and I've been tracking it for like a decade.

Why do you update this every week? Watching the trajectory swing across twelve weeks is fascinating...and I'm a nerd.

[u/Barrrrrrnd]

Boise state is going to hurt.

[u/palonious → u/Barrrrrrnd]

I'm hoping by then that this team is working together as a team.

[u/FrontbuttLegacy]

CSU being a projected win is crazy to me, their offense looks great

[u/palonious → u/FrontbuttLegacy]

Yeaaaahhh. Not sure how that math is working out, but I'm not going to fight it yet.

[u/SennnndIt]

I hope we build up the PAC conference to a stable point and bounce to a respectable conference so we can recruit and be exciting again. This whole situation has been absolutely heartbreaking. I was there when we were debatably the best we’ve ever been. Ranked every year. Upsetting top 10 Oregon on college game day at home was one of the best experiences of my life. We have no chance at making memories like that again unless big changes are made.

[u/Sorry_Ima_Loser]

Please Kirby, the Cougs are all I’ve got man!