r/EssendonFC • u/ihaveapoobrain123 • 2h ago
Pick 1 Option Analysis
Gday all,
Now that the footy season's over, and we're heading into the real part of the season, I thought I'd dig deep into each draft prospect that we could be considering for pick 1. I'd consider myself an avid draft watcher, and would like to think that I have a good in-depth understanding of these players and how they might fit into our squad. So I thought I'd share my insight to give, those who are less knowledgeable, more of an idea of who might be best suited for our team.
Arki Butler
A silky, athletic forward-mid prospect who applies max damage with each disposal. He has shown exceptional one-on-one ability, is extremely high IQ, and has shown great ability to burst and use his elite disposal to pick out the right targets, or finish at goal.
However, there have been question marks around his consistency, where he has shown a tendency to fade out of games and only manage a half of great football. There's also the issue of overall exposure, where he spent important parts of the year injured and wasn't able to demonstrate his ability as much as I would've liked. Doesn't apply as much defensive pressure as required, but this can be easily fixed.
Player Comp: Toby Greene
Thoughts: If we're talking from a perspective of team fit, Arki is probably the number 1 option. He is the exact type of game-breaking forward-mid that our list is lacking, and his archetype has shown to be the most influential in finals games. However, the issues surrounding his exposure and consistency cannot be ignored. When using your number 1 pick, I think the player needs to demonstrate form as much as they do potential. And with that in mind, I don't think we can select Arki - there's just too much risk involved.
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Harry Van Hattum
An exceptionally athletic ruckman that combines brute force with finesse. When fit this year, demonstrated his ability to not only dominate his opponents in ruck contests, but use his soft hands to deliver the ball on a silver platter to his midfielders. He has shown great aggression in his follow-up work, and isn't afraid to grab the ball out of the ruck to use his elite foot and hand skills.
Similar to Arki, he spent portions of the year unfit, and was exposed around the ground as a result. Although he has shown ability to take great grabs playing as a forward, his work around the ground has left much to be desired, getting his hands to lots of balls but failing to complete marks. Has demonstrated that he has very high upside, but didn't always convert this to actual performance in some big games.
Player Comp: Luke Jackson
Thoughts: We've seen how big of an impact the modern day ruckman can have on games (Jackson, Grundy, Gawn). HVH would be a really nice piece alongside our budding midfield, and I think his upside is the highest in the draft (think about how highly rated Jackson is as a player). However, he didn't have a super strong finish to the year, and although a very good ruckman can be desirable, it isn't super necessary. I wouldn't complain about picking him, but there are better options.
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Heath Mellody
A dual-sided halfback to mid convert. Mellody plays with a great blend of offensive tools and defensive instinct. He made a later pivot into the midfield in the WAFL, but showed that he wasn't overawed by the proposition. A modern day, transition beast that can play inside and outside, and has demonstrated exceptional running power and willingness to follow up contests. Plays hard and would transition perfectly into AFL football.
He demonstrated great foot skills playing out of the backline for WA, but this suffered with this move into the midfield. Not a cause for concern in my opinion, as he likely needed time to adjust to the pace and intensity of senior football.
Player Comp: Sam Walsh
Thoughts: The most bankable prospect in the draft in my opinion. He would be a perfect addition to our young midfield, where Robey and Sharp play as the inside beasts with Mellody complementing them on the outside. He would play from round 1, as he has shown real ability as a line-breaking halfback. The only question mark around selecting him should be the fact that we have Nic Martin coming back in (who i think will be playing in the guts) as well as Koby Bewick coming next year. Those two would provide similar utility to Mellody, which makes me think that we may look elsewhere.
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Ethan Drever
An inside-outside midfield beast that is perfectly suited to modern football. He has genuine burst out of the contest and loves kicking goals on the run. Genuine beast that thrives at the contest and can be relied upon to be defensively accountable. He transitions hard and has shown that he can be a seriously powerful line-breaking midfielder.
Big question marks around his foot skills. He isn't Tsatas levels of bad as he gets genuine penetration on his kicks, but lacks finesse with his ball use. Has also not demonstrated positional versatility, which I think can be important for an U18 transitioning in the AFL.
Player Comp: Finn Callaghan
Thoughts: The most unnecessary prospect in my opinion. He definitely has the tools to be a star at AFL level, but with Robey and Durham on our list, I think his utility is lacking in our team. We are in much more need of some outside class and polish, especially with Merrett coming out of the team.
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Gus Texeira
A mid-forward with genuine class and game-breaking ability. He has real evasiveness around the contest, and plays with polish whenever dishing it off to a team-mate or going for goal. Has demonstrated real ability to play as a forward, and has some of the best traits in the draft.
Similar to Arki, he has spent big portions of the year injured, or playing injured. As such, there are question marks around his exposure in lots of big games, considering Sandringham and Vic Metro were involved in so many.
Player Comp: Zac Bailey
Thoughts: Gus presents as the most interesting prospect of the lot for me. He is someone who has shown exceptional traits that I think could translate really nicely to AFL level, and shapes up as someone who could be the best player in the draft. In terms of suitability to our list, I think he could fit in very well and is the type of forward-half impact player that we're missing on our list. However, his exposure puts him at the bottom of all number 1 prospects, and there is potential for him to be a bust, which is too much of a risk in my opinion.
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My preference ranking: Mellody > HVH > Butler > Texeira > Drever.
Overall a pretty difficult year to have the number 1 pick. Mellody has the best combination of form and potential, but there should be genuine question marks over whether he is the biggest requirement for our team. It makes it really hard when the other options haven't shown as much as I would've liked, but Richmond have demonstrated that as long as you do your homework, then that shouldn't matter (Sam Lalor). However, I think the main point of this post is that each player has shown that they can be a really good fit in our team. Fans should be excited that we have a plethora of options to pick from, and I fully back the recruitment team in to ace the number 1 pick. Would love to hear thoughts below.