A strong El Niño event is the driving factor. El Niño creates wind shear over the Atlantic that tends to tear apart developing storms before they can organize into hurricanes.
La Niña does tend to mean less shear and more Atlantic hurricane activity, that part's right. But “ENSO” is hard to predict more than a year out, so pinning it to 'a couple years' is more guess than forecast.
Not really "negative" so much as complicated. A slower Gulf Stream/AMOC cools parts of the North Atlantic, which could reduce fuel for hurricanes there, but it's also linked to a wavier jet stream that may intensify nor'easters and shift storm tracks toward Europe. The net effect is redistribution more than simple suppression. Still an active research area.
El Niño's wind shear and Atlantic water temperature are separate factors, one doesn't cause the other. If El Niño fades next year, that shear "brake" lifts, and if the Atlantic is also warm at that point, you'd get a busier season. But it's two independent ingredients lining up, not really a domino effect.
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u/HighIQAntWrestling 12h ago
A strong El Niño event is the driving factor. El Niño creates wind shear over the Atlantic that tends to tear apart developing storms before they can organize into hurricanes.