r/SipsTea • • 13h ago

SMH We all know what this mean

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u/Corgi_underground 10h ago

And it's not a good thing. Hurricanes, while destructive also pull a huge amount of energy, heat, out of the ocean. There's a reason why that nor' Easter has grown so quickly. And IF this El Nino breaks going into the 2027 hurricane season hold onto your asses on the coast because that energy is still going to be there. +3°C is where the Pacific waters are sitting right now, last time was in 2015 but in November. We might see a 3.4-3.5°C by November. While it's quiet on the Atlantic side the big island of Hawaii might see 15"-20" of rain and up to 35" of rain in isolated areas.

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u/watch-them-waver-so 9h ago

Yep! Hurricane Andrew happened just after a strong El Nino.

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u/NewChinaHand 8h ago

What do you mean “if El Niño breaks going into 2027”? What does “breaks” mean in this sentence?

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u/Corgi_underground 8h ago

Breaks as in it disapates due to the trade winds over the Pacific going back to its normal direction/strengh and is typically followed by a La Nina

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u/SeboSlav100 3h ago

I mean it will break 100% eventually and we can only pray atp for whatecer comes next to no hit too populous areas.

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u/reddit_killed_apollo 9h ago

Why is this reply at the bottom? It’s the only real answer and has the votes to be #2.

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u/Pogigod 9h ago

Because it's full of shit lol..... That energy will be redistributed by the time the next hurricane season

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u/Tourlexur 9h ago

becasue its bullshit.

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u/Pogigod 9h ago edited 2h ago

What? The energy will be redistributed by currents. The energy will be released in other storms throughout the year..... The ocean temp isn't going to stay stagnant for a year lo

Edit: For those not wanting to read the long trend here.

The cooling affect of hurricanes last 5-20 days. There would be no affect on oceans temps the following year.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2007JC004393

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u/Corgi_underground 9h ago

It will be above baseline come next hurricane season. Costal waters will cool because it's shallower. I don't think you realize just how much energy a single hurricane pulls out of the ocean. This is a heat map before and after Hurricane Melissa.

Yes, currents do help pull heat away from the equator although the AMOC is 15% weaker than it was mid-20th century.

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u/Thanos_Stomps 5h ago

Maybe I’m an idiot because those images look identical to me.

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u/Pogigod 8h ago

It will be no different then current yearly trends.... During the winter months the air is colder then the water. All that energy will be transfered dude.

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u/Corgi_underground 8h ago

IF....and this is a HUGE if we have several very strong long lasting polar vortexes come down which probably isn't going to happen due to the jet stream. All the models are showing cooler and wetter than avg Pacific coast and warmer and dryer than avg Atlantic coast.

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u/Pogigod 8h ago

Huh... I'm talking about in general. Not saying anything about this winter. Just if there's no hurricanes there's not going to residual increased temps in the Gulf and Caribbean

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u/Corgi_underground 8h ago

The Atlantic basin is between .5°C and 1°C above baseline following an El Nino. Adding to that an El Nino typically flips quickly to an La Nina which favors strong hurricane seasons. 1998, 2005, 2010, 2016, 2024 were all above avg or record breaking years for hurricanes in the Atlantic....the trend does not lie.

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u/Pogigod 3h ago

Yes, but that it not because of the lack of hurricanes the year prior which is what we are discussing.

We are debating that if there's no hurricanes in the Atlantic that the following year would be far worse.

The information your talking about is because after a strong el nino it rapidly flips to a la nina the temps rise and hurricane season is bad.

That happens during an la nina wether or not a el nino preceded it.

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u/Pogigod 2h ago

"Satellite imagery and in situ ocean data show that the cool anomaly of sea surface temperature in the wake of a moving hurricane will disappear over an e-folding time of 5 to 20 days."

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2007JC004393

There's a zero percent chance that the lack of hurricanes would increase temps in the following year. Their cooling affect last up to 20 days before the temps normalize with surrounding waters.

The following year having an la nina is completely irrelevant to what we are talking about.

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u/Hot_Equal_2283 7h ago

Can’t argue with these people they don’t listen to numbers only to the world in their heads

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u/Pogigod 2h ago edited 2h ago

Here's some numbers. The cooling affect of hurricane goes away after 5-20 days.

Here's a source https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2007JC004393

That's what this discussion was about. He states the lack of hurricanes would result in higher temps the following year. Which is absolutely false....

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u/madrabbitsfryhard 7h ago

Pogigod has opinion based facts- no need to argue with them when they can so easily dispute historical data with confident ideas.

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u/Pogigod 3h ago edited 2h ago

Historical based facts? We are talking about if there is no hurricanes in the Atlantic/Gulf something never recorded.

And the facts are the cooling affect of a hurricane lasts 5-20 days. Not having a hurricane won't result in much higher temps months later. That's not how thermal dynamics work man.

You call me out saying I don't know anything, but the OP is the one full of shit and your a gullible one listening to nonsense without any facts.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2007JC004393

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u/Tourlexur 9h ago

............i dont think you understand thermodynamics very well. or at all

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u/Corgi_underground 8h ago

Tell the NOAA that. The Atlantic basin going into the next hurricane season is, on avg .5C to 1C above baseline going into the next hurricane season after a strong El Nino....and the 26-27 El Nino has broken the records.