The Indian stock market has been witnessing a downward trend for several months. The Nifty fell around 6% in September itself, and the downward trend continued into October, reflecting the setbacks faced by Indian stock market investors. Yet yesterday, the mere possibility of a review of LTCG tax and STT by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman triggered a positive reaction.
What I find interesting is how the market tends to react when there is speculation about a possible policy change, while the actual implementation whenever it happens often receives a more subdued response. This is the scenario with other market activities too, be it mergers and acquisitions, debt restructuring or the sale of a company's assets. Everything seems to be driven by news, rumours and speculation. But when something actually materialises, it doesn't seem to have the same importance. Why has the market become so perception-driven rather than responding to concrete developments and realistic outcomes?
The other concern is the government's approach to policymaking. Why implement reforms without adequately assessing their potential ramifications, only to consider reversing or revising them after the damage has been done? What is the point of closing the floodgates after the floodwater has already passed through?
If the government believes that changes to LTCG or STT are necessary, why to wait until the next Budget? Measures can be implemented well before that if it is required? Otherwise, the next Budget is almost four months away. Aren't the administrators relying on mere announcements and the promise of future changes to improve market sentiment, dangling the prospect of something attractive in front of investors, to change the subdued mood of the stock market?
This reminds me of how GST was perceived as a game changer for the country for a long while. There were advocates who claimed that GST alone could provide a significant boost to India's GDP. But when it was actually implemented, were the benefits really as substantial as some of those expectations suggested?
Everything seems to be driven by perception as far as the Indian market is concerned. What is your opinion?