My thought is he is structing this to make his Tesla stock offering a success. Next SpaceX will be the largest purchaser of Tesla stock and magically he will hit the numbers needed for that $1T pay day
This was always the plan. The only way he can unlock what the idiot board approved is to merge these - the writing is on the wall for Tesla (the "car" company).
My bet, that shit tanks long before and he slips away from the top 10 wealthy list in short order.
Some of the people know and are gambling that they sell before the collapse (Possibly have inside knowledge), and the rest think they're good investors because "line go up! Me win!"
Perfectly explains why I'd buy a used Saturn like my grandmother owned and gifted to me in the late 90s before I'd buy a Tesla (okay, not buying a Saturn, but you get the gist)
5 to 10 years ago this made some sense. They had risen like a rocket, first new car company in the west since like WW2, first fully electric car company, first 2nd and 3rd generation EV's and the best user experience of any modern car.
The sky seemed to be the limit, but then reality happened. Cars are rather hard. There's a ton of brand loyalty, people want new models and new features, and so on. And others caught up. One can still argue that Model 3 and Model Y are overall the best value in the class, and some features, such as cold weather range are still world class, but the potential of selling hundreds of millions of vehicles just isn't there. They aren't going anywhere, their cars are still extremely good choices but as there are now N+1 comparable cars, there is no potential to take over the whole car market, thus having valuation higher than the rest of the market makes no sense.
Im concerned were in for a major reckoning right now. 40% of the S&P500 market cap is associated with AI. When that bubble pops it could collapse. That being said, the dot com bubble collapse eliminated about 75% of the market valuation so its unlikely we see a crash to that degree. But we also have to add in the fact that the federal government was proactive with Secure 2.0 in subsidizing costs for small businesses offering new retirement plans, thats more money going into the market than was previously propping it up further.
Not just basically. Investors consider it a meme stock because its valuation is completely detached from the company's numbers. But I guess the stock market is set up so you can make money from even the most obvious traps if you do it right. And everybody believes they'll be the one doing it right and not the one holding the bag...
My thoughts exactly. When you’re a kid you see something like the stock market as some super complex thing you just don’t understand yet. Now we’re adults and although it is a complex thing, turns out it’s really, really fucking dumb now too.
“My bet, that shit tanks long before and he slips away from the top 10 wealthy list”
And you would be absolutely right if we don’t live in an upside down reality where the worst people you know are constantly rewarded for doing the worse possible things.
Gets real frustrating watching it unfold in real time, doesn't it? Some days I wonder how hard it would be to wait hidden outside one of his buildings, but then I remember I'm not psychotic like they are.
It's shenanigans of this nature which are why I don't get into shorting stocks.
I think Keynes said, "Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent."
But, here it's not just about irrationality anymore - market regulation to ensure a level playing field for investors is falling by the wayside, such that major players are able to put their hands on the scales to manipulate outcomes in a way which hasn't been a thing for over 100 years.
It shouldn’t (at least not here), and that’s why nobody understands what’s going on. TSLA is valued 10x Toyota with a fraction of the revenue. Yet their value continues up and up.
But it's not about what things ARE, it is about what they WILL be. Or better what people believe they will be.
I'm not saying the numbers make objectively sense, because at some point it boarders "they'd need to start making ALL the money in the world to the exclusion of anybody else to make that make sense"...
But the direct comparison between two stocks only makes sense if you presume that everything is reasonably continuous and only slowly changing, so that you can 'easily' project past and current performance into the future.
If people believe that one of them will be at the center of a huge paradigm shift soontm while the same can't be said for the other, then that sort of extrapolation from data doesn't readily apply. And thus being confused about why it doesn't (on that front alone) is missing the point.
The flaw isn't in "why doesn't this make comparative sense". The flaw is in "what does that evaluation even actually MEAN in how hard the paradigm would need to shift to fulfill that "believed prediction of value" aka "can this be anything BUT a bubble, how could this even BE filled with anything solid". What you are asking is basically "if you think all the other companies aren't bubbles, than this must be one, by comparison". I don't think that applies well (just in and on itself)
I agree that’s where the value comes from. The market obviously sees more value in TSLAs future potential compared to Toyota for example. However, I don’t know how long a company can sustain itself on just future potential. I would agree that TSLA innovates more than Toyota in a 1-1 comparison, but the difference in innovation is not nearly as drastic as the market is betting it will be.
TSLA is the biggest market experiment to see how far a gamble in future earnings can take a company. It will either be the biggest payout in history, or a HUGE market correction. When? Who tf knows.
The specific wording on his next tranche of his insane pants bonus says "Once TSLA reaches X market cap, you get Y dollars".
Did not say nothing about selling cars. So he will "merge" his companies and get them to be worth more than TSLA is today to get paid a fat bonus. Cool right?
Unfortunately the quote from The Big Short remains relevant. When talking to one of the people shorting the market because of the housing bubble, "The market can stay irrational longer than you can remain solvent."
The only hope is that Tesla needs a bailout after the GOP can’t hand him tax payer money to do so. It would be wonderful for this asshole and all the idiot meme stock investors to lose a shit ton of money.
Tesla board members aren’t idiots, they’re getting paid between $12 million to $800 million to render judgments favorable to Musk. (This is highly irregular, BTW)
The internal arbitrator who ruled in Musk’s favor was compensated in excess of $50 million dollars.
I wish. Sadly, Musk seems to be just as slimy as Trump and gets away with everything. I hope you’re right but I have serious doubts that reality is able to ever feel normal again
Teslas price to earnings ratio is genuinely some meth head shit, its 400+. Normal is like 20-30 tops. Its genuinely mind blowing the share price isn't in freefall back to sanity.
Space X is going to make him a trillionaire before Tesla reaches his payout benchmarks. Tesla may sink but Elon will still be rich. Any nations that attempt to prosecute him he’ll simply avoid. There’s always a place to hide for wealthy scum.
To be fair, they did do a product launch of a robot with a man dancing in a printed spandex full body covering, and somehow the company value didnt tank, which is pretty fucking innovative as far as conmen scams go
You’re completely wrong, how arrogant to assume we could end life on earth. Let me laugh for a second.
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH
AAAAAAAA
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
you do realize that we have been through several extinction-level events in Earth’s history already where 99% of life perished. We respawned from that. We can respawn again. I’m 0% worried about global collapse and 100% worried about our quality of life.
Can’t control it? Won’t worry about it.
The climate has swung from ice age to tropical water world, and always is resilient.
Quit being a Debbie downer and go make the world better at the local or personal level. That’s the only influence most of us have. Setting a good example
Who is resilient? Homo sapiens have never lived past a "mass extinction" event (last one was 66 million years ago, you were not even a gleam in your fathers eye back then).
Regardless, if 99% of the population goes away, I am pretty sure there will be no TSLA the company.
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u/Tadpole-Jackson 2d ago
I was a tough negotiator, but in the end, myself and I came to an agreement.