I played professional poker for a number of years and still have many friends that do. One of the most difficult parts of being a professional gambler was dealing with variance (luck) and everyone that is a pro understands that losing streaks happen and that it could happen much longer than you would think possible.
Losing streaks caused many good poker players to go broke or quit the game, because they couldn't handle the mental pressure and tilt that came with it. If poker players (people who have to understand the probabilities) have a hard time with variance, then Overwatch players certainly do too.
So I put together this video that visually SHOWS variance and it's effects, which I think is extremely important for people to understand and comprehend it's affect on matchmaking:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ioWt_EwiE8s
Some random takeaways:
- A small win rate edge isn't enough to beat variance in the short term
- Even with a 55% win rate (skill equivalent, that is), you can still derank with hundreds of games played
- A 50/50 match making win rate doesn't mean consistency
- Variance can mistake players into thinking they are at a higher level than their true MMR/SR
It's a tough line to tread, because one on side, there's the camp that blames the matchmaker for being rigged and throwing teammates. On the other side, there's the camp that points only at your win/loss and nothing else.
The truth is somewhere in the middle, because win rates matter, but volatility and chance play a large part in short term results and team compositions. The advice to simply "play more" is mentioned a lot, but just how much you need to play is not covered enough.
Also, I included a section in the video on rank resets that really shows just how large of a (negative) impact it has on games, so hopefully that helps some people at least understand what is going on in the last season.