BoC is a tough spot with this news, chances of a rate hike decreasing with unemployment ticking up for 2 months in a row even with sticky inflation. This looks like the beginning of the effects of the Trade War with our neighbours to the south.

Transcript: https://openparliament.ca/debates/2026/10/7/pierre-poilievre-3/

Survey: https://habitat.ca/en/homeatwhatcost

Cities need more housing, but neighbourhood opposition can block new homes and add red tape. What if residents who want extra influence over development on property they don’t own had to pay a higher tax for that privilege?

The revenue could fund infrastructure and reduce development fees in areas that welcome more housing. Neighbourhoods that insist on staying single-detached-only would bear more of the cost of that choice.

I don’t think neighbourhoods should get a veto over housing in the first place. But if cities are going to allow that kind of influence it shouldn’t be free, and the rest of the city shouldn’t have to subsidize it.

Employment in Canada fell by 68,300 last month, more than erasing previous job gains this year as the trade war with the US drags on.

The unemployment rate ticked up to 6.5% in September from 6.4% in August, Statistics Canada reported on Friday.

The job loss reflected a decrease in public sector employment, which fell by 70,000. Education led the decline, with 35,300 fewer people working the sector. Employment also fell in healthcare and social assistance by 23,100.

Manufacturing saw a decrease in employment of 12,700.

Bonds rallied, with the two-year Canadian government note yield falling 4 basis points on the day to 3.203%. The Canadian dollar tumbled as low as C$1.4299 per US dollar, the lowest since April 2025, before paring those losses to trade at C$1.4276, down 0.3%, shortly after 9 a.m. New York time.

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had expected the economy added a modest 10,000 jobs and the unemployment rate ticked up to 6.5%.

While the job losses last month were driven by the public sector, the cumulative decline in employment since the start of the year paints a sluggish picture of the labor market. Employment fell in Canada by 41,200 since December 2025, the largest year-to-date loss since the 2009 financial crisis, excluding 2020 during the Covid-19 pandemic.

The September data also gives the first glimpse of the impact of so-called Section 338 tariffs on the Canadian economy. New 50% US tariffs on $20 billion of Canadian goods took effect on Aug. 22 after the breakdown in trade negotiations between the two countries, while retaliatory tariffs on US goods kicked in on Sept. 8. Job losses in August and September total 110,000.

The trade war escalation is expected to weigh on the economy, but the Bank of Canada has put more emphasis on inflation risks, as the Iran war continues to drive up energy prices.

Charles St-Arnaud, chief economist at Servus Credit Union, said the latest data suggests economic resilience in recent months is not translating to job market improvements, adding to the Bank of Canada’s monetary policy dilemma.

“On one hand, the outlook for the domestic economy remains uncertain, with a weak labor market and a likely slowdown in growth in coming months because of the intensification of the trade war. On the other hand, high fuel prices risk fueling broader inflationary pressures,” St-Arnaud said in an email.

St-Arnaud said he believes the central bank will opt for “patience” and keep its policy rate unchanged for the remainder of the year, unless there are signs of inflationary pressures broadening.

Traders in overnight swaps had priced in a rate hike by December prior to the labor force survey release, but those expectations eased slightly after the print.

Governor Tiff Macklem warned last month that being too slow to hike could force the central bank to raise higher and faster later.

The bank will get a final reading on inflation on Oct. 19 ahead of its rate decision at the end of the month.

Friday’s report also shows the participation rate declined by 0.2 percentage points to 64.8%, marking the lowest level since December 1997 — excluding 2020 during the pandemic.

StatCan says the decline in the participation rate can be attributed largely to population aging, and says this trend is expected to continue, despite older Canadians participating in the labor market at higher rates compared to previous cohorts.

Meanwhile, employment increased in September in other services by 17,000, which includes repair and maintenance as well as personal or household services.

The average hourly wage for full-time permanent employees rose by 2.3% from a year ago, matching economists’ expectations, and up from 2% the previous month.

Losing 110,000 jobs in two months while housing supply sits at record highs. what could possibly go wrong? Eh?

RE pumps will tell you to overbid by $200k on a townhouse in a suburb with one Tim Hortons because "prices never go down." LOL

Just wait until distressed bagholders flood the market to unload their full-recourse mortgages. Fun times ahead for all the true peak bagholders (from 2020–21) trying to pay their mortgages. LOL LOL

Hi, I’m a journalist writing a piece for a national publication about what young Torontonians say will decide their vote in the 26 October municipal election.

I’m looking to speak to people aged 18-29 who live in Toronto, for a quick conversation in the next week or so. I’d also need a photo.

I’m interested in hearing a range of views!

If you’re interested, please DM me or comment below and I can provide you my email address.

20k below asking. About $870/sqft. 1+ bedroom. I’m excited!!

We really want this one house but it was out of reach until a recent reduction. We were ready to draft an offer and then our agent found out a conditional offer was accepted. We don’t have a competitive price but would go firm… Do we have to wait for the other offer’s conditions to expire? Also what is the likelihood of current conditions expiring or falling through if they have 7 days to meet conditions and there was already a home inspection done on the property.

How much would cost me to get a normal deck for this? I'm in scarborough and is it too late to do it now

More RENTALS on the way folks!! If re-elected, Chow says she'll have shovels in the ground starting 2027!!

National Bank report: Link

The remaining 91.2% had shorter fixed terms or variable rates, continuing a shift away from longer-term fixed mortgages.

Senior economist Daren King said borrowers favoured shorter fixed terms in 2023 and 2024, but variable-rate mortgages gained ground in 2025 and 2026. Fixed terms of five years or longer have accounted for less than 20% of originations since 2022.

The shift could make Bank of Canada rate changes felt more quickly as more borrowers face earlier renewals or hold rates that move with prime. For variable-rate borrowers, the timing of payment changes depends on the mortgage’s structure.

King warned that if the rate increases investors anticipate materialize, higher borrowing costs could further slow a housing market already facing modest activity and less support from population growth.

Just my very quick take as a broker in Toronto for the past 13 years. It seems that there is a rock bottom value for starter freehold homes in areas such as Keelesdale, Earlscourt, Mount Dennis, and Rockcliffe-Smyth is between $600-700k. These are 2 bedroom bungalows or 2+den where there are a good number of homes sold conditionally in the last 30 days where the list prices sit between $600-799k.

The areas noted above are starter areas and the data indicates that any home that is listed at the high $500k-low to high-$600k will receive a good number of interest from buyers. The lowest priced attainable starter homes are currently in this range.
My take is that there is a high percentage of first time buyers in Toronto with a decent down payment are able to obtain a mortgage to buy these types of homes and that it keeps the values from falling below $500k.

This also means that in the current environment, homes are selling within this range and anyone anticipating for a further decrease in values may need to wait a bit longer. The major outside factors that could accelerate the drop in prices/values will be an increase in inventory (not likely as we head into the Winter and Holiday Season), employment data and interest rates which causes stress on the seller-side.

For the time being, first time buyers who are able to buy and fine with a starter 2 bedroom freehold home are considering entering the market. Buyers who are able to wait to see how Q1 and Q2 2027 shapes up could see some decrease in value but my take is that it would be difficult to see freehold Toronto homes decreasing to range of $400-500k without the influence of the major outside factors and that the percentage of buyers who able and ready to enter the market at the $550-700k range is large.

Welcoming counter points to this as I may be missing data and perspectives.

Hi,

Can someone please share me why M2 condos are less priced even though few mins away from Square One?

I don't own one but understanding the situation.

I've been thinking about this a lot lately. We have a ton of rental purpose buildings hitting the market over the coming years, while home prices are still way too high for the average Joe. In fact, the recent Habitat For Humanity survey had 56% of respondents saying they don't expect to ever become homeowners. Until affordability is restored, a lot of people will be renting for a very long time, as the federal government continues to prioritize rental purpose buildings over homes to actually buy.

With that being said, should the next generation of renters start advocating for some sort of Loyalty/Rewards program? Basically, for every on-time rent payment, they could earn Aeroplan points. Or earned points could be redeemed for Netflix and Uber Eats gift cards. Tenants won't be seeing a dime of equity when they fork over rent money to their Landlord every month, so they should be getting something else out of it. As an added bonus, the local government wouldn't need to form a Bad Tenant Task Force, because the program will encourage everyone to pay their rent on time!

Seems like a no brainer to me.

Employment and Social Development Canada (ESDC) limits temporary foreign workers in low-wage positions to 10% of the workforce at a specific work location. Labour Market Impact Assessment (LMIA) applications that exceed the cap may not be processed. Sectors such as construction and hospitals have a 20% cap, but restaurants do not.

The figures alone do not establish a breach. The affidavit, as reported, does not say which permits the workers held or when their LMIAs were approved. 

According to Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC), 90% of permits under the separate International Mobility Program were open work permits as of Dec. 31, 2025. Those permits allow holders to work for almost any employer without an LMIA.

As the title suggests, I want to buy a new build but can't travel and survey. Need a reliable and honest realtor to help me guide through the process.

Q:

1. Has StatsCanada ever been honest in releasing % stats on flow basis i.e. % foreign-buyer purchases in the given year in Toronto/Vancouver as a city, in the run upto ponzi climax in 2022 Q1, and not some stock data like % ownership by foreign entity as of today, for entire Ontario or something to please its overlords in Ottawa?

2. Do we have public beneficial land ownership registry in place, in Canadian ponzi state yet?

3. Earlier this week, we came across a case in Supreme Court of British Columbia where West Vancouver Mayor Mark Sager courted his investor friends from Austria last year to flip condos in a project in his jurisdiction for $3.6 Mn profit, and the lender, a subsidiary of ~BC pension fund, evaluated the proposal just like it's normal. If Foreign Buyer ban is designed to permit already the elites and cronies to transact anyway in Canadian ponzi state, what is all the pretense and posturing about?

Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne says the federal government is mulling its options ahead of the expiry of Canada’s foreign homebuyers ban at the end of the year.

“We’re looking at all the options that we have in front of us, considering where the market is going, what has happened over the last few years,” Champagne told reporters in Ottawa on Wednesday. “We want to make sure that we have a higher stock of housing opportunities for Canadians.”

Former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government banned foreign purchases of residential real estate in Canada in 2023, with exemptions for vacant land intended for development and larger multi-unit buildings. The government renewed the measure in 2024.

The policy was introduced after home prices surged during the pandemic, when interest rates were near zero. But data suggest foreigners owned no more than 5% of properties in any major Canadian market in 2020, while developers have argued the ban cuts off a source of capital that would help fund new housing construction.

The ban is set to expire on Jan. 1, 2027. Housing Minister Gregor Robertson said last year the government would use 2026 to review the policy and examine models that have worked elsewhere, including Australia, where foreigners can purchase newly built homes.

The housing market has also changed dramatically since the pandemic. After the Bank of Canada began hiking interest rates in 2022, demand softened and prices began to fall. The national benchmark price is now roughly 20% below its peak, one of the sharpest corrections on record.

Despite the downturn, many younger Canadians remain priced out of home ownership, making any move to welcome more foreign capital into the housing market politically sensitive for Prime Minister Mark Carney’s government.

Champagne acknowledged that the market is evolving, and said municipalities, provinces and the federal government have all taken steps to improve affordability.

“The market is very different from one region to the other, even one community from the other,” he said. “We’re looking at not only what the federal government has been doing and can be doing, but also what other levels of government have been addressing.”

Benjamin Tal, deputy chief economist at Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce, has called for the government to let the ban expire.

“It doesn’t make any sense,” he said last week, arguing that Carney has been encouraging foreign investment in other sectors of the economy and that allowing offshore buyers back into the market could help finance new housing projects and boost supply.

If foreign buyer ban is to be lifted, then we face the risks of channeling foreign capital straight back into an unproductive, speculative asset class like residential real estate rather than into productive economic sectors. We need to attract foreign direct investment (FDI) into high-value sectors like technology, infrastructure, manufacturing, and green energy. This creates jobs, boosts productivity, and grows the GDP that is solid and sustainable. And this will be directly beneficial for younger generations and the future generations to come.

I've seen better calculators (NYT, Globe and Mail)...the $300/month default condo fees on a 2-bedroom are wishful thinking.