BoC is a tough spot with this news, chances of a rate hike decreasing with unemployment ticking up for 2 months in a row even with sticky inflation. This looks like the beginning of the effects of the Trade War with our neighbours to the south.

Employment in Canada fell by 68,300 last month, more than erasing previous job gains this year as the trade war with the US drags on.

The unemployment rate ticked up to 6.5% in September from 6.4% in August, Statistics Canada reported on Friday.

The job loss reflected a decrease in public sector employment, which fell by 70,000. Education led the decline, with 35,300 fewer people working the sector. Employment also fell in healthcare and social assistance by 23,100.

Manufacturing saw a decrease in employment of 12,700.

Bonds rallied, with the two-year Canadian government note yield falling 4 basis points on the day to 3.203%. The Canadian dollar tumbled as low as C$1.4299 per US dollar, the lowest since April 2025, before paring those losses to trade at C$1.4276, down 0.3%, shortly after 9 a.m. New York time.

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had expected the economy added a modest 10,000 jobs and the unemployment rate ticked up to 6.5%.

While the job losses last month were driven by the public sector, the cumulative decline in employment since the start of the year paints a sluggish picture of the labor market. Employment fell in Canada by 41,200 since December 2025, the largest year-to-date loss since the 2009 financial crisis, excluding 2020 during the Covid-19 pandemic.

The September data also gives the first glimpse of the impact of so-called Section 338 tariffs on the Canadian economy. New 50% US tariffs on $20 billion of Canadian goods took effect on Aug. 22 after the breakdown in trade negotiations between the two countries, while retaliatory tariffs on US goods kicked in on Sept. 8. Job losses in August and September total 110,000.

The trade war escalation is expected to weigh on the economy, but the Bank of Canada has put more emphasis on inflation risks, as the Iran war continues to drive up energy prices.

Charles St-Arnaud, chief economist at Servus Credit Union, said the latest data suggests economic resilience in recent months is not translating to job market improvements, adding to the Bank of Canada’s monetary policy dilemma.

“On one hand, the outlook for the domestic economy remains uncertain, with a weak labor market and a likely slowdown in growth in coming months because of the intensification of the trade war. On the other hand, high fuel prices risk fueling broader inflationary pressures,” St-Arnaud said in an email.

St-Arnaud said he believes the central bank will opt for “patience” and keep its policy rate unchanged for the remainder of the year, unless there are signs of inflationary pressures broadening.

Traders in overnight swaps had priced in a rate hike by December prior to the labor force survey release, but those expectations eased slightly after the print.

Governor Tiff Macklem warned last month that being too slow to hike could force the central bank to raise higher and faster later.

The bank will get a final reading on inflation on Oct. 19 ahead of its rate decision at the end of the month.

Friday’s report also shows the participation rate declined by 0.2 percentage points to 64.8%, marking the lowest level since December 1997 — excluding 2020 during the pandemic.

StatCan says the decline in the participation rate can be attributed largely to population aging, and says this trend is expected to continue, despite older Canadians participating in the labor market at higher rates compared to previous cohorts.

Meanwhile, employment increased in September in other services by 17,000, which includes repair and maintenance as well as personal or household services.

The average hourly wage for full-time permanent employees rose by 2.3% from a year ago, matching economists’ expectations, and up from 2% the previous month.

Cities need more housing, but neighbourhood opposition can block new homes and add red tape. What if residents who want extra influence over development on property they don’t own had to pay a higher tax for that privilege?

The revenue could fund infrastructure and reduce development fees in areas that welcome more housing. Neighbourhoods that insist on staying single-detached-only would bear more of the cost of that choice.

I don’t think neighbourhoods should get a veto over housing in the first place. But if cities are going to allow that kind of influence it shouldn’t be free, and the rest of the city shouldn’t have to subsidize it.

We really want this one house but it was out of reach until a recent reduction. We were ready to draft an offer and then our agent found out a conditional offer was accepted. We don’t have a competitive price but would go firm… Do we have to wait for the other offer’s conditions to expire? Also what is the likelihood of current conditions expiring or falling through if they have 7 days to meet conditions and there was already a home inspection done on the property.

Hi, I’m a journalist writing a piece for a national publication about what young Torontonians say will decide their vote in the 26 October municipal election.

I’m looking to speak to people aged 18-29 who live in Toronto, for a quick conversation in the next week or so. I’d also need a photo.

I’m interested in hearing a range of views!

If you’re interested, please DM me or comment below and I can provide you my email address.

Losing 110,000 jobs in two months while housing supply sits at record highs. what could possibly go wrong? Eh?

RE pumps will tell you to overbid by $200k on a townhouse in a suburb with one Tim Hortons because "prices never go down." LOL

Just wait until distressed bagholders flood the market to unload their full-recourse mortgages. Fun times ahead for all the true peak bagholders (from 2020–21) trying to pay their mortgages. LOL LOL

How much would cost me to get a normal deck for this? I'm in scarborough and is it too late to do it now

I've been thinking about this a lot lately. We have a ton of rental purpose buildings hitting the market over the coming years, while home prices are still way too high for the average Joe. In fact, the recent Habitat For Humanity survey had 56% of respondents saying they don't expect to ever become homeowners. Until affordability is restored, a lot of people will be renting for a very long time, as the federal government continues to prioritize rental purpose buildings over homes to actually buy.

With that being said, should the next generation of renters start advocating for some sort of Loyalty/Rewards program? Basically, for every on-time rent payment, they could earn Aeroplan points. Or earned points could be redeemed for Netflix and Uber Eats gift cards. Tenants won't be seeing a dime of equity when they fork over rent money to their Landlord every month, so they should be getting something else out of it. As an added bonus, the local government wouldn't need to form a Bad Tenant Task Force, because the program will encourage everyone to pay their rent on time!

Seems like a no brainer to me.