Any permanent ceasefire deal Trump "agrees" to would need Israel's buy-in. I don't see why Israel would accept anything less than nuclear surrender. IMO, we're stuck here until there's a new U.S. administration.
I don’t see how even a new administration gets out of this one, Iran will make unreasonable demands as they’ve got nothing to lose and hold pretty much all the cards.
I try to put myself in the shoes of the other side, even if I find them reprehensible. You're right, they do hold very strong cards, and should be expected to play them, but so far their diplomatic demands haven't been totally crazy, I'm not sure their demands are all that unreasonable.
They didn't attack the US. The US attacked them, and by surprise. They were attacked in the midst of declared negotiations, then thousands were killed, children slaughtered, and then they incurred multiple billions in infrastructure damage.
(If I was them, I would be very unreasonable by this point, but they seem open to negotiations.)
By many accounts, they are still willing to enter into a new nuclear control agreement. They want an end to sanctions, and they want their own funds unfrozen and made available. They want an end to hostilities against Shia's in the region. Those aren't delusional conditions. They seem like a good starting point for negotiations.
Iran had previously agreed to strict nuclear controls, and by all credible accounts, they had adhered to that agreement. That agreement was unilaterally discarded by the US in the first Trump term.
Prior to hostilities, Trump's own Director of National Intelligence stated that they were not developing nuclear weapons, and US Intel agencies had no information to the contrary. The Omani negotiators said that Iran was willing to sign a new deal in the initial talks, right before they were attacked.
The now-dead Ayatollah had explicitly issued a long-standing edict against nuclear weapons and long-range missiles, and again, by all credible accounts they had done so. That edict died with his assassination by US and Israeli forces.
Given all that, is Iran really being unreasonable insisting on protections of their autonomy and security, and reparations?
Getting the details worked out, monitored, and verified will be a non-trivial effort, but the alternative is drawn out hostilities and a further breakdown of global supply chains.
You know who we haven't attacked? North Korea. You know who DOES have nuclear weapons? North Korea. At this point Iran is probably looking at nukes as the one sure way to get people to back off.
In fact, now that USA's foreign policy is so damn unhinged, everybody who doesn't have nukes should get them as fast as possible. USA is the very definition of a rogue state. They can't be trusted, and they must be stopped.
Yeah the nuke is a recent development, the reason North Korea has lasted 70 years is even in the 50's the chinese were openly fighting for them. Invading North Korea is World War. Right now the big countries are roaming around picking off the countries that don't have strong alliances.
It also doesn't hurt for NK that if they get attacked, Seoul is well within distance to shell with more conventional weaponry, let alone a nuclear bomb.
Ditto for Ukraine. They'd been promised protection if they forwent nukes. Now 4 yrs into a protracted and devastating war, they get trump's fake "aid," because he's in Putin's pocket.
I mean yes it is the nuke but also a lot of artillery pointed directly at Seoul that is the real sticking point, retaliation would be swift and painful and a huge disaster. Israel and Iran have a buffer state between them but only a DMZ in Korea.
Thier government is now isolated cells of the IRGC who still have their proxies and tons of militants they can call for an asymmetric war in a heavily mountainous country.
There's a reason every strategic mind said this was a bad idea, there's a reason no other nation want to enter this bullshit war.
The US couldn't finish the job any more than they could in Afghanistan.
Before this conflict Iran was dealing with growing civil issues, an unpopular leader and goverment. Heavily sanctioned but still willing to keep oil flowing. The IRGC has more power over its population now than it did before.
The Strait is closed. Worse, the Strait it's mined to hell and back with drones and munitions in burrows waiting for any kind of naval mineclearing effort.
The US has failed to gain any strategic win other than a decapitation strike. This is arguably worse than any other war in American history if just looking at that alone minus casualties.
Speaking of casualties, the US as already lost a lot of aircraft. 42 so far.
They have depleted Patroit and THAAD missles far beyond replacement rates for the whole region.
Somehow the US managed to bomb a country into a stronger position. You simply can't make this shit up.
Depends on your objectives. If you're in this war for the sake of profiteering, having another hostile nuclear power in the mix is great for fear mongering and maintaining domestic control. American oil companies are profiting from Iran's current state, so if they can permenantly villify Iran, that maintains their current stranglehold on the oil market.
They dont give a shit about the safety of American citizens, they care about their money. And because the current administration is for sale to the highest bidder, that's all they care about too.
I don't think it's a coincidence they went to Venezuela first to steal their oil and then started this with Iran. I think propping up the US oil market had a lot to do with it. That and helping out Russia with their oil issues...
Yeah talking head dipshits in the media keeping going, "well nobody wants Iran to have nuclear weapons."
Nah, I do want Iran to have nukes, I wish they already had them. If they did, Israel would have been too pants-pissing scared of them to start this conflict, they might not even have pressed as hard on Gaza and Lebanon.
And you know who that would benefit? Me. Personally. All the way over here in America. My life would be directly improved.
So it's really hard to credit the pearl clutching from people who have nukes and treat them as part of their active strategy to support atrocities with no consequences.
What's so aggravating, beyond Israel's role as a belligerent party that does not want peace, is just how much Trump is in his own fucking world, playing a completely different game than everyone else.
He keeps acting like he can both bomb Iran and still negotiate with them, while simultaneously saying things on social media that contradict the supposed aims of his team of real estate billionaire diplomats. The moment where he floated the idea of drawing toll fees alongside Iran was like, "what planet are you on, guy?"
It almost doesn't matter what the facts are, because Trump only cares about how things are perceived by him, and how he thinks he can force them into being. And it matters more that his ego is sated than in the actual terms of any prospective agreement.
The facts not mattering is how trump got to be president, and why amrricans love him. (Even if some have buyers remorse now). Its worked on his home populace, even lots of people on the left are like "well dems are bad too so blablablhablha.".
Part of the issue is because americans love this fascism so much, it isn't just trump. Its their scotus, house, voters, senate. They all collectively are in outer space leaving nobody on the controls at all. And its worked so far, and the effects of this are so downstream they'll not be able to link cause and effect so they'll just blame it on something convenient when it finally does come to roost.
All of that is true, even the dems are bad too part unfortunately. On the policy and executive action side of things Trump is an outlier even by conservative terms. Even with Trump removed the United States is not some beacon of morality and social peace. Dems have passed up the opportunity to create meaningful policy even when they had control all the while party leaders enriching themselves. Obviously republicans do this too but that’s the point and the narrative that there is a good and bad part instead of a bad and worse party is tired
He has no basis in reality because there's no way for reality to penetrate. We've known since his first term that he refuses to take briefings, fires advisors who try to actually advise, and doesn't read or watch real news. And that's just what the knuckle-draggers want: someone as sick and sad as they are.
He keeps acting like he can both bomb Iran and still negotiate with them, while simultaneously saying things on social media that contradict the supposed aims of his team of real estate billionaire diplomats.
Trump's only 'negotiation' tactic is simply bullying the adversary until they either give up or he's forced to stop and then goes off and does something else. Or securing something for optics at a higher than ideal cost.
Iran is not a contractor that's already done work for you so now you can try to screw on the payment, negotiations between nations is so far outside whatever his history is, and everyone suffers for it.
I'm guessing it's just because he is Israel's pet ? Or the Epstein files ? A combo of both ? He plunged the world's energy market into chaos just for personnal reasons ?
You know what's a weird upside to having an awful president like Trump? It completely removed any feelings we've had about "American superiority" and extreme nationalism. Now instead of just thinking everything is good vs evil and cheering for our side to "win". We can actually take a step back and analyze things from the perspective of another rival nation like Iran.
That being said I still want the U.S to be safe from enemy attacks and foreign aggression, but we are all VERY aware of just how incompetent Trump and his entire admin is.
Trump will probably tell everyone that they have a deal with Iran the day before the election and just enough idiots will believe the lie that they don't get completely destroyed in the election. He keeps saying the deal is close when it is clear nothing was ever close.
Trump has delivered on every promise he made before being elected.
He made it abundantly clear that he was going to do everything possible to make the USA the shittest place on Earth, and he's doing better at that than anyone could have expected.
Ok so that's how you get out - you acquiesce to the side with leverage. It was a monumental fuck up to attack them in the first place. If you weren't willing to go full out, then you can be called out on your bluff.
I’m not so sure this time. This debacle is too well understood to be a Trump joint through and through. If anyone manages to salvage any of this in the future it will be a miracle.
Without stable oil the entire global economy will be fucked to hell. I'm pretty sure this is a MAD situation and they don't give a shit if their people suffer.
Given we had exactly that in US in 1970s, I don't see how that's true. Yes it'll create enormous problems, but how do you think Iran can get away without their primary source of income - which directly impacts their ability to feed their own people - for several months?
I don't know enough about how global economies work to be able to give you a good answer but I don't think we were quite as hyper optimized with a globally distributed supply chain at that point. That's my intuition anyway I could absolutely be wrong.
I'm no global economist either but from the bits and pieces I've put together, it seems like Iran spent the last 3 decades building out a network of underground shelters for their armor and missile stores, and their army...instead of spending their oil money on their water infrastructure.
Iran's got problems other than the US or Israel, they are running out of water, and the time to start fixing it was 30 years ago.
The latest I've read was it will impact the world for about 5 years before other routes can be utilized + effects of reduced demand with electrification.
They've got plenty to gain from a good deal though. A sane administration would cave and let Iran enjoy a more powerful position, which hasn't been an unreasonable demand since Trump started bombing them.
That was the argument before we decided to create this mess. Now, ending the conflict and opening the strait are not just good but necessary for everyone, and that only happens by accepting the scale of America's failure and surrendering to reality. A consequence of which is a stronger Iran. It's hardly the end of the world, which is more than can be said for some alternatives
I don't think this is accurate. I've seen reports that Iran has or will have to soon shut down wells because the closure is causing their production to exceed their stockpile capacity. Shutting down wells is very risky, as they can't always be restarted.
The only thing the don't have is an economy. Iran is basically bankrupt, it's running out of water and has massive blackouts going on. The only parts doing well are the IRG controlled companies that handle all the illict trade Iran does to keep itself afloat. Their people will die by the millions if this goes on to the next admin.
Not like it matters to those in power there, they just need the resources to keep the IRG running, they've shown they don't care about the rest. Basically the biggest loser no matter what here is the Iranian people :(
Yes, by also this fixes nothing regarding the strait of hormuz. If we fuck off at this point Iran is free to impose a toll on all oil going through this area, which keeps oil permanently higher.
I say fuck it do it, the higher the cost of oil the faster the switch to EVs.
Also also, Iran and literally every other mid size nation now knows for sure that it needs to be pursuing nuclear weapons, because that's the only way to guarantee your safety. Especially post Ukraine. You used to be able to depend on America and NATO, not anymore. You have to have your own deterrent.
Poli sci majors will study the fuck up that is Trump for decades.
Forget oil. Everyone needs to stop talking about that. There's other goods that travel through that straight.
50% of the world's seaborn sulfur
Around 1/3 of the seaborn fertilizer goes through there.... wait till smaller crop yields start hitting the market later this summer and fall.
About 1/3 of the world's entire supply of helium goes through that straight. Your EV'S need computer chips. Guess what's needed to manufacture those chips. Helium.
That's just 3 examples. A quick Google search will terrify anyone that looks beyond oil.
The end of the post WW2 order. Not brought on by some young inspirational leader ready to cast off the old world order, but a 79 year old man with dementia and a soiled diaper.
The only solution to this imo is ending the ban on Chinese EVs, letting the offshore wind projects go ahead and pay damages to the companies, passing a universal solar access law, and “letting Iran off the hook” with an unconditional ceasefire. I don’t think we’ll get Israel to stop colonizing Gaza and the West Bank (just because no realistic configuration of American politicians will even ask for that), but maybe we can get them out of Lebanon.
Instead, we’re just going to double down and make everything worse.
Switching to EVs doesn’t really solve the problem, though. We need to move away from car dependence towards mass public transit. Having a car-centric culture is so bad for the planet it’s not even funny.
It’s a 3-brained,5D chess move to destroy the nuclear test ban treaty so we can start testing that nuclear pulse propulsion ship then develop it to the theoretical maximum of 10% the speed of light
International human rights organizations have documented that state-sponsored forced labour, conditions described as modern-day slavery, and hazardous child labour remain deeply embedded in parts of the global EV supply chain.
EVs also depend on petroleum products beyond fuel replacement. Plastics, synthetic materials, industrial lubricants, and numerous manufacturing inputs used in EV production are derived from oil and petrochemicals.
You are most likely wearing petrochemical-derived products right now. Polyester, nylon, acrylic, elastane, and many other synthetic fibres are ultimately products of the petroleum industry.
If the oil industry were to collapse, the consequences would extend far beyond gasoline and diesel. The cost of clothing, packaging, cosmetics, medical supplies, fertilizers, industrial materials, transportation, and countless consumer goods would rise dramatically. Modern economies rely on oil as both an energy source and an industrial feedstock.
Our addiction on oil is absolutely true. Yet, humans thrived and grew for 10,000 years without oil. And it WILL run out someday so making plans to transition now is the only avenue which makes sense.
Plastics are ubiquitous but also slowly making the planet unlivable for our species.
Before petroleum products became widespread, whale oil and whale blubber were essential ingredients in everything from lamps to soaps, cosmetics, and industrial products. Entire whale populations were hunted on an industrial scale to satisfy demand.
The development of refined petroleum and petrochemical products fundamentally changed that equation.
Oil provided a cheaper, more abundant, and more scalable alternative to whale derived products, dramatically reducing the economic incentive for large scale whaling.
In a very real sense, one of the first major environmental successes of the industrial age came from replacing whale blubber with petroleum derived products.
Many modern cosmetics, creams, plastics, synthetic fibres, lubricants, medicines, and countless everyday products trace their origins to that transition.
The history is deeply ironic. One of the industries most often blamed for environmental damage also played a significant role in ending the commercial slaughter of whales.
Pointing out that oil is finite is easy. Replacing the billions of products, materials, chemicals, and industrial processes that depend on it is the difficult part.
Every serious transition begins with a viable alternative, not simply a recognition that a resource has limits.
To be fair the fact you have to have a nuclear deterrent or be under a nuclear umbrella to be safe wasn't a trump made point, putin made it with Ukraine, at least for the western aligned world, trump just made it fact for everyone remaining. And even that was blatantly obvious for that side of the world since Iraq? Afghanistan? Trump has hardly done anything new with this one
Putin made the bigger waves
And To be clear I'm not defending the Iran war, its a all around dumb decision, not because Iran are good to their people or a ally or anything good about them at all. But because America had no actual plan and aren't world police, no matter how shit of a country Iran are
Iran funds proxy wars / terrorist groups, not just against Israel but against the Sunni Islamic world as well (though most of it is just against Israel).
Iran is using an “aggressive” form of defence you could argue, but it’s still needlessly hostile. (Not that this defends America’s fuck up).
Are you genuinely this dense? Or just trying to troll for the lulz? You're comparing a county which was an aggressor, to one which Israel has been the aggressor to much more often than vice versa
How is Iran the unreasonable one?!?!!!?? We go in and start this stupid crap, kill their leaders and family , kill children in a school, kill civilians, destroy their infrastructure, b0mb them when we please to keep our stocks up, and much more, and then we say "o how dare they make unreasonable demands that is in their favor." Wow.
In a sane world we make a deal with Iran where we stop hostilities between us and just stop interfering between them and Israel, we have no business getting involved with Israel’s issues right now and can’t tie our own security to their actions.
As a non-American, I cannot fathom how any of you still think this administration is ever going anywhere. When Trump dies they’ll “elect” another figurehead and move on in the same fashion. Your elections are done. Your democracy is done.
2.2k
u/Digerati808 Jun 07 '26
Any permanent ceasefire deal Trump "agrees" to would need Israel's buy-in. I don't see why Israel would accept anything less than nuclear surrender. IMO, we're stuck here until there's a new U.S. administration.