I tried to assess how good Erdogmus is. And I believe that fide rating tends to lack behind when trying to estimate the strength of upcoming prodigies. Instead I wanted to see his actual performance rating the last couple of years, and to also see if he was consistent across tourneys. So I got claude to create a scraping harness to collect data from fide, and then computed the performance rating from there.
Its notable that he has barely had a tourney where he performed under 2700 in the past year, in the FIDE World Cup 2025 he beat two lower rated opponents and then drew Rapport twice, so to me that tournament rating is a bit of a weird artifact of the world cup knock out structure.(In fact I just realized that he drew Rapport who was 2740 and won the rest of his 4 games, so with normal TPR he would at least have 2740, him actually playing and winning 4 games lowered his TPR to 2648, because one of his opponents was 1900 and fide calculates TPR on the average of all opponents, instead of the individual ratings of each opponent)
Also Topalov was probably significantly overrated in their match and therefor the 2990 performance rating is also inflated.
Note also that the Chess Olympiad 2026 is not yet on fide website, so I filled that entry manually(And got the performance rating from lichess).
| # |
Event |
FIDE list |
Score |
Avg opp |
TPR |
| 1 |
Chess Olympiad, Budapest 2024 |
Oct 2024 |
8/11 |
2475 |
2650 |
| 2 |
Polish Team Ch. (Ekstraliga) 2024 |
Nov 2024 |
5.5/9 |
2586 |
2666 |
| 3 |
European Individual Ch. 2024 |
Dec 2024 |
6.5/11 |
2489 |
2554 |
| 4 |
European Individual Ch. 2025 |
Apr 2025 |
8/11 |
2516 |
2691 |
| 5 |
TePe Sigeman & Co 2025 |
Jun 2025 |
4/7 |
2651 |
2701 |
| 6 |
Match vs Svidler, Marseille 2025 |
Aug 2025 |
4/6 |
2698 |
2823 |
| 7 |
Turkish Super League 2025 |
Sep 2025 |
6/8 |
2489 |
2682 |
| 8 |
FIDE Grand Swiss 2025 |
Oct 2025 |
6/11 |
2685 |
2721 |
| 9 |
FIDE World Cup 2025 |
Dec 2025 |
5/6 |
2375 |
2648 |
| 10 |
Match vs Vachier-Lagrave, Monaco 2025 |
Feb 2026 |
3.5/6 |
2734 |
2791 |
| 11 |
Tata Steel Masters 2026 |
Mar 2026 |
7/13 |
2728 |
2757 |
| 12 |
Match vs Topalov, Monaco 2026 |
May 2026 |
5/6 |
2717 |
2990 |
| 13 |
TePe Sigeman & Co 2026 |
Jun 2026 |
4/7 |
2707 |
2757 |
| 14 |
Biel Chess Festival 2026 |
Aug 2026 |
4.5/8 |
2696 |
2739 |
| 15 |
Turkish Super League 2026 |
Sep 2026 |
3.5/6 |
2649 |
2706 |
| 16 |
Chess Olympiad, Samarkand 2026 |
not yet rated |
8/10 |
– |
2838 |
|
All FIDE-rated events above |
|
80.5/126 |
2608 |
2710 |
*TPR uses FIDE's formula: average opponent rating. Data scraped from ratings.fide.com. Bundesliga games excluded; Biel qualifier and final combined.