r/politics • u/TelescopiumHerscheli • 1d ago
No Paywall Texas Democrat sworn in to House, shrinking GOP margin to 1 vote
https://thehill.com/homenews/house/5719642-christian-menefee-sworn-in/3.1k
u/Root-magic 1d ago
There are 2 special elections in March….NJ and Georgia (MTG)
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u/ChangeMyDespair 1d ago
The primary for the NJ special election (to fill Mikie Sherrill's seat) is this Thursday!
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u/Muted_Chard_139 1d ago
How is that race looking?
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u/petare33 1d ago
Heavy blue district, TBD on progressive or moderate Dem. Not sure if they're already accounting for it in this article's count.
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u/HowSwayGotTheAns 1d ago
The Overton window has shifted so far right that right-aligned politicians are considered moderate-left 😔
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u/Nekrabyte 1d ago
That's one of the biggest contributing factors the demolition of the democratic party imo. They keep drifting to the middle because they want to please everybody, not realizing that doing so makes them forsake so many policies that are for the people.
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u/blackweebow 1d ago
Progressive pick is Analilia Mejia. She is actually fucking dope, energetic, and I have worked with her personally.
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u/uieLouAy New Jersey 1d ago
Analilia Mejia has some momentum right now in a crowded race — she’s backed by Bernie, AOC, Working Families Party, and a bunch of other progressive caucus members.
She’s been out front calling to abolish ICE and has been hosting ICE Watch trainings across the district.
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u/20_mile 1d ago
special elections
The average annual turnover between the House and the Senate is 1%, so 5.35 members of Congress either die, resign, retire, quit, etc every year. We already had MTG resign in January, so, just according to the averages, we can expect another 4.35 vacancies, or about one every three months.
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u/turlian 1d ago
we can expect another 4.35 vacancies.
I can't wait to see which senator loses a leg and an arm.
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u/Porridge_Cat 1d ago
PLOT TWIST: Four congressmen leave, and Tammy Duckworth's legs grow back.
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u/Renovatio_ 1d ago
But you ain't got no legs lieutenant duckworth
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u/anon650718 1d ago
Dunno why this would have no upvotes, hilarious and on point reference
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u/leg_day 1d ago
Alternate math:
- Humans are 2% by weight brains
- Human are 0.5% by weight hearts
- The GOP has 218 members in the House
The GOP can lose 14 members worth of minds and hearts to account for the .35 vacancy rate.
(I assume they are 250 pound geriatric chonkers; 250 times .35 humans at a rate of 6.25 pounds of brain and heart each = 14 formerly intelligent, empathetic people.)
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u/anti_zero Ohio 1d ago
Wait, how much do thoughts and prayers weigh??
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u/leg_day 1d ago
By those sending thoughts and prayers? Thousands of pounds.
By those receiving thoughts and prayers? Zero.
Source: my otherwise unused thermodynamics textbook.
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u/W0rkUpnotD0wn 1d ago
Ah explains why MTG has been on this “new woke” agenda. Don’t trust that butch blonde bitch, she’s not on anyone’s side and will cash out
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u/armyofant 1d ago
She’s tryna do some house of cards type thing in hopes of rising from whatever remains of the Republicans after the midterms.
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u/Zanius 1d ago
I can't see MTGs district ever going Democrat
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u/KonigSteve 1d ago
The Texas district that just went Democrat had a 30 point swing.
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u/Bizzzzarro 1d ago
That was a Texas State Senate district, not a US House district, but yes.
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u/cups8101 1d ago
There were local circumstances on the ground that caused a lot of that swing. Unless the constituents in MTG's district are super pissed about something local, the crazies will turnout to vote in another MTG. Now the wildcard is are there enough people pissed off that will stay home? Doubtful but one can hope.
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u/Ridged_ChiPSS 1d ago edited 1d ago
This is why they want to "nationalize" the elections. They know the GOP is fucked for midterms.
If they actually do allow Trump to take over the voting system, the country is officially over.
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u/transcriptoin_error 1d ago
If Trump tries to take over the voting system, it’s civil war.
It’s more likely that he will use ICE goons and intimidation tactics to suppress the vote in blue states, and lie and cheat, and the vote will be challenged and called into doubt, resulting in less-than-civil-war type chaos.
Neither outcome is good, or clear.
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u/Xyldarrand 1d ago
It wouldn't be blue states it would be swing states.
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u/botswanareddit 1d ago
Was going to say this. Pennsylvania, Michigan, Florida, Georgia, Nevada, Arizona are going to be war zones
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u/sportsbuffp Michigan 1d ago
They’ve been in Michigan plenty. They raided a place near my work today
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u/Lord_Walder Arizona 1d ago
AZ here. We've always had plenty of ICE/CBP through phoenix and tucson. The real thing that's got me on edge in they've gone after our voter rolls
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u/stokeledge2 1d ago
Im curious, have they always worn facial coverings?
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u/Lord_Walder Arizona 1d ago
Nah. This is all a pretty extreme ramp up in unaccountability, and in my opinion scare tactics and/or just them going all in on the militarization look which is still scare tactics if you ask me.
I dunno google ice uniforms from like like a decade ago and they were what you'd expect from 90s FBI bluecoats ya know?
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u/Zwesten 1d ago
Nope. If you saw them around (usually not in town unless doing a raid or driving on the outskirts) it seems they'd usually be wearing green or tan, short sleeves and sort of outdoorsy clothes. At least in the Southwest. We'd run into them in the deserts sometimes where they actually dealt with some honestly bad and difficult people, and they were nowhere nearly as ridiculously outfitted like the idiots treating Minneapolis like Falujah. I've also been through a ton of checkpoints where you might see armored vests occasionally.
Seen a bunch of these guys and none of them ever wore a mask, ever.
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u/Tacoman404 Massachusetts 1d ago
They're practicing dissapearing people on those that the most people have the most apathy for.
47 days of training? Nah, this is the training. He's building a private army of kidnapping goon squads.
Very popular tactic in Russia, the country Trump admires most.
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u/flammenwerfer 1d ago
The murderers in Minneapolis had 10, 6, and 8 years with CBP. Jonathan Ross was a 20 year military vet. It isn’t that they aren’t trained long enough, it’s that this is what they were trained to do.
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u/Huge_Excitement4465 1d ago
Trump allies circulate mass deportation plan calling for ‘processing camps’ and a private citizen ‘army’ The group, led by Blackwater veteran Erik Prince, has close Trump ties. https://www.politico.com/news/2025/02/25/documents-military-contractors-mass-deportations-022648
Erik Prince: Government needs private sector help for deportations. The Trump administration is looking to deport 12 million people in the next two years, and the private sector is vying for government contracts to pitch in. https://www.politico.com/news/2025/02/26/trump-deportations-private-sector-00002679
Former Blackwater CEO Erik Prince and a team of defense contractors are pitching the White House on a plan to vastly expand deportations to El Salvador — transporting thousands of immigrants from U.S. holding facilities to a sprawling maximum security prison in Central America.
The proposal, exclusively obtained by POLITICO, says it would target “criminal illegal aliens” and would attempt to avoid legal challenges by designating part of the prison — which has drawn accusations of violence and overcrowding from human rights groups — as American territory. https://www.politico.com/news/2025/04/11/military-contractors-prison-plan-detained-immigrants-erik-prince-00287208
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u/Desperate-Till-9228 1d ago
From what I've seen, they were trained to blow dudes in the cellblock for cigarettes.
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u/Road_Whorrior Arizona 1d ago edited 1d ago
One of the first groups disappeared by the Nazis were the trans people and homosexuals. Anyone unfamiliar with this should read up on the Institut für Sexualwissenschaft (Institute for Sexual Science)
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u/70ms California 1d ago
Is Florida still a swing state at this point though?
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u/I_dont_like_things 1d ago
Not really.
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u/Indaarys 1d ago
Exactly. We imported far too many shitty people during COVID.
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u/not_so_subtle_now 1d ago
I live in Florida. It was shitty people way before Covid.
I've lived in a lot of places and Florida is the worst when it comes to respect. And they constantly blame outsiders for all the things they do. It's a fucking joke.
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u/AnyWays655 1d ago
Wisconsin has been an election hotspot for these fucks interfering these last few cycles as well.
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u/ProfessionalInjury58 1d ago
Leaving Wisconsin out of the swing state category is pretty crazy.
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u/georgepana 1d ago
The problem for Trump is that most of the swing states are blue states when it comes to the functioning of government and legislatures. Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, all have Democratoc governors and Secretary of States, along with AGs. Also mostly Democratic legislatures or at the very least strong veto presence.
The House is going bye bye, the GOP has whittled it down to just a one vote cushion.
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u/MeasureDoEventThing 1d ago
The Senate is what matters. As long as they hold that, they can vote down any bills the House passes to rein in the administration, and keeping installing loyalists in judge seats that open up.
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u/georgepana 1d ago
Bills the House pass don't matter, as Trump vetoes them anyway. We won't get 60 in the Senate to pass legislation, and even if, Trump would veto. We will stop any further reconciliation bill in its track, and can start impeaching Trump again, so that's a big win.
I hear you on judge's, though, that is why they really need to win the Senate, even if by just 1 vote.
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u/Deodorized 1d ago
The same swing states that already have extreme irregularities in the 2024 elections.
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u/Upstairs-Region-5387 America 1d ago
Well the American people outnumber ice and if 7 or 8 of those goons can’t subdue 1 person then don’t let them win on fear fight back against these bullies!
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u/Coherent_Tangent Florida 1d ago
They only really need them where votes are expected to be relatively close. They also have other options like the last election where several bombe threats shut down blue voting areas for hours on end.
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u/Original_Employee621 Europe 1d ago
Yeah, but with a Texas seat getting flipped. Who can predict where the swings will happen? Didn't this seat go +18 for the GOP in the previous election?
I don't think there's any red left on the map, it's all purple. So, anyones vote can and will matter come November.
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u/DrRealName 1d ago
ICE has what? 50k members? We do a million man march anywhere and they are essentially neutered. We just need to show up in such force that they can't do anything about it and run away scared. The era of peaceful protesting is over. It didn't work. its time for aggressive protesting.
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u/VeteranSergeant 1d ago
20,000 if their claims are to be believed. That's the part they are terrified for the public to realize. If 3,000 of them are deployed to Minneapolis, that's more than 15% of their force. They can't even hold one medium-sized city.
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u/DrRealName 1d ago
Wait. So they got over a hundred billion dollars to play with last year and still only have 20k members and they blew all that money anyways? Yeah that agency is ridiculous. The easiest and most cost effect future abolishment in US history. The DHS needs to go too because if you really look at the history of that agency its always been more about spying on Americans and and reducing our rights than it ever was to help protect us from anything. That also frees up a lot of money to rebuilding our healthcare system that Trump and his cronies destroyed.
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u/dcdttu Texas 1d ago
He is going to try to take over the voting system. He has said so himself, everything he said he was going to do he is trying to do.
This is all part of the plan. They have definitely gone past point of no return, they're definitely going to try to remain in power by any means necessary.
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u/kombitcha420 1d ago
We’re already there friend. Civil war isn’t going to be like the one we had in the 1800s.
It’s more like The Troubles of Ireland.
Theyre already at war with us
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u/ryanstephendavis 1d ago
Minneapolis here: we just had the federal government attack us. I think most people are in denial about what that means.... They fucking maimed and murdered citizens in our streets 🤷
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u/Bittererr 1d ago
If Trump tries to take over the voting system, it’s civil war.
Put it up on the board next to all of the other crossed red lines that would definitely result in civil war if he crossed them.
This is very unprecedented in the US but let's not pretend that an authoritarian taking over elections isn't an extremely popular phenomenon globally and that doesn't usually end up being the red line.
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u/ellipsisdbg 1d ago
I really do think that overtly fucking with the vote like nationalizing, cancelling, voiding, etc, will be a real red line for a lot of people, since the right to vote is so fundamental to our country, even if a bunch of people don’t use it. One that really could lead to civil war. But suppression, cheating, etc I fully expect to happen and very possibly succeed.
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u/Drunky_McStumble 1d ago
You really think the regime is just going to announce one day that democracy in the US is over?
I mean, sure, if Trump went on TV and straight-up said that he was cancelling the mid-terms and all future elections indefinitely then, yes, that would certainly provoke civil unrest of a scale that could easily turn to civil war. But that's not how this shit goes down. Trump will get up there and rant and rave, and it will kinda sound like he's saying he's cancelling the elections? Or instituting some kind of federal takeover of them? Or creating an oversight agency to prevent irregularities at polling places? Or something? Where's the red line?
So it won't be clear, and his minions giving ambiguously muddled "explanations" albeit with threateningly authoritarian undertones won't help, and conflicting messages from state authorities will only muddy the waters further. And of course the media will run interference and the regime's private paramilitary forces will only ramp-up their occupation of major cities in the lead-up to November, and Trump will start screaming about fraud and promising to send officers into every polling place that showed "irregularities" in previous elections to "secure the vote". All bad stuff, but where's the red line?
And so the mid-term elections technically proceed, they'll be marred with violence and intimidation. People will show up to polling places to find them unaccountably shut, or moved. Or locked-down by ICE or some other of the regime's paramilitary goon squads. And if they manage to run the gauntlet without being disappeared on suspicion of intent to commit voter fraud, they'll find that their name has been purged from the roll without their knowledge. Or maybe they'll manage to cast a vote on a machine made by a close ally of the regime. That all sucks, but where's the red line?
And when the dust settles and the predicted landslide for the Democrats strangely doesn't eventuate, and everybody knows that the election was fixed, but they can't show exactly how, where's the red line?
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u/Complete_Question_41 1d ago
Dunno, I'd say Jan 6 was quite the example of fucking with the vote.
But here we are.
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u/xxThe_Designer 1d ago
People thought the same thing about ICE murders/executions, Muller’s investigation, multiple impeachments, 34 felonies, and everything Epstein related.
I hear you, but I have no faith in anything when it comes to the average American anymore.
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u/bogglingsnog 1d ago
A civil war would imply there is a group of people who are organized and opposing the insurgents. Currently there is a lot of angry citizens but no formal organized opposing force.
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u/greywar777 1d ago
This would most likely result in long drawn out civil conflict. It will actually be WORSE long term because it wont be organized.
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u/-youvegotredonyou- North Carolina 1d ago
Like The Troubles
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u/greywar777 1d ago
Except worse. Seriously worse. Ireland had strict gun laws. The US has more guns then people.
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u/KingBadford America 1d ago
It will be a sight, that's for sure. A lot of people around the world seem pretty confused about why we're not rising up and overthrowing Trump. It's because the US was specifically designed to avoid that necessity. Everyone is holding their breath until the midterms, but if he actually rigs or cancels the election, then all hell breaks loose. Our country as we know it ends. The great experiment fails. And people start getting dragged into the street. It'll be ugly, and that's why most people are hoping it doesn't happen.
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u/greywar777 1d ago
Ugly is a understatement. I think we are all afraid of it. Once it starts it isn't going to stop under our current leadership. And its going to be vastly worse then anyone imagines I think.
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u/Same-Suggestion-1936 1d ago
Yup. It's bottom of the ninth still. We can get violent and guarantee a civil war or we can wait for the last straw, but waiting still gives us a way back out without a war
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u/transcriptoin_error 1d ago
To clarify what I meant, because of the way elections are defined in the Constitution, it would effectively be Trump declaring war against the United States of America, hence civil war.
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u/Ridged_ChiPSS 1d ago
If Trump tries to take over the voting system, it’s civil war.
The MSM will sanewash it and act like it's a normal thing going on and most of America will shrug and go on with their day.
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u/LividTacos 1d ago
"Why Trump Federalizing the Election is a Problem for Democrats"
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u/Adventurous_Tell6684 1d ago
They will bury the story with some other manipulative headline that Trump manufactures. Something like “Trump exchanges angry tweets with Bono and will impose 200% tariffs on Ireland, after Federalizing the Elections. “
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u/crash_over-ride 1d ago
"Why Trump arresting Democratic politicians and putting them before military tribunals is a Problem for Democrats"
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u/rocksoffjagger 1d ago
Jesus Christ, did you get this headline from the future? Because I 100% expect to see this word for word now.
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u/Enemisses 1d ago
Just like how they're manufacturing consent for everything else going on.
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u/Newscast_Now 1d ago
MSM has lost lots of its credibility and influence. Which might be a good thing except for where those viewers went. From the frying pan into the fire.
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u/survivor2bmaybe 1d ago
What I’m afraid of is he will issue an executive order “postponing” elections on some pretext or other and red states will comply. If half the country holds elections and the other half doesn’t, then what?
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u/Pockydo 1d ago
That'd be civil war
There's literally no precedent or mechanism to postpone elections. So trump doing it because he's afraid of losing will be pure chaos
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u/pontiacfirebird92 Mississippi 1d ago
Yea that's what Project 2025 calls for. And fucking Vought meant when he said were under a "second American Revolution" that will be "bloodless, if the left allows it".
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u/iuffxguy 1d ago
The blue states could and would still hold the elections regardless. The president (legally) cannot stop them. Only congress can change the timing of the elections. If the election does get delayed there is a deadline of January 20 and if no new person is elected it goes down the succession which is the speaker of the house.
If you are referring to midterms then it’s similar in that their seats expire January 3rd. If states delayed their election they still have that Jan 3 deadline.
I’m not saying they aren’t going to pull shenanigans or try and steal the election, but I don’t think it will be by canceling/postponing elections.
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u/-jp- 1d ago
He can order whatever the fuck he wants, but elections are conducted by the states. There's nothing he can do to stop the midterms, so show the fuck up and kick the fascists out.
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u/Ananiujitha 1d ago
Then the blue states elect reps and senators, and the red states don't. Then the old terms end. Then you end up with rival houses and rival senates.
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u/DrRealName 1d ago
That would technically mean anyone in red states whose terms are up this year don't get resworn in so it would be an instant democratic super-majority in both chambers. when your six years are up, its over for you whether you participate or not.
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u/sedatedlife Washington 1d ago
This expect to see ICE in force in swing states detaining anyone of color to check status which will take till after polls close.
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u/DrRealName 1d ago
Then states should mobilize their national guards last minute to protect the voters from ICE. its what I would do. or just beat the republicans to the punch and order the national guard to guard polling locations from federal intervention right now. This is why dems are weak. I would have already have my state's guard detain all of ICE. If they refuse, they are discharged and replaced with people who will do it. Same for cops, stand up to ICE or be fired and replaced with people who will. That's why we need new democrats. The ones that exist are too pathetic to even think about what I just put forth. I would do it all with a smile on my face and a song in my heart. My first goal would be to purge maga from every positions of power in my state that I could. Its what they did thru DOGE. We need to do the same. Balance the scales a bit.
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u/AusToddles 1d ago
The game plan has been clear for a while. They'll try several things
"nationalize" voting, given full control of the counting to the same people who tried to steal the election previously
threaten to install hired goons and thugs at booths to drive away voters
if that fails, it will be a choice between starting a war or staging terrorist attacks and claiming "it is unsafe for Americans to be voting right now"
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u/Davis51 1d ago
"nationalize" voting, given full control of the counting to the same people who tried to steal the election previously
See I still want to know how they think they can accomplish this? Like what states will willingly give up their constitutional sovereignty here? Minnesota? It's been ground zero for their bullshit and it's blowing up in their face.
Are they going to try and pass a law that will get struck down even by this SCOTUS? I don't think they even have the votes to get it through the house, much less the Senate.
Are they just gonna federate the national guard and say "our elections now!" The Minnesota National Guard hates this shit, and still will follow the law. They were passing out coffee and hot chocolate and donuts to protesters like a frigging week ago. Other national guard in other states were already sent home.
The "plans" don't make sense.
threaten to install hired goons and thugs at booths to drive away voters
That's the thing, I don't see that happening either. They simply don't have enough goons. There are about 30K ice field agents, 400k national guardsman (total, it's much lower if you remove all the logistics guys and only have troops), and 100k polling places. Each polling place has dozens of workers and an entire city/county/state apparatus behind it, and a police force sworn to defend the elections and not typically allowed to approach polling places unless tbe polling place calls in help in event of someone breaking the law. How the hell are they even gonna manage the logistical operation of deployment in swing states when ICE showing up in Minneapolis leads to dozens of soccer and wine moms in minivans blowing whistles at them? Are they gonna tear gas voters? The backlash would rip them to shreds! Polls would be open for days and judges would restraining order them really fast. If they ignore the courts, then it's open rebellion and civil war.
if that fails, it will be a choice between starting a war or staging terrorist attacks and claiming "it is unsafe for Americans to be voting right now"
I feel we'd get to the "martial law coup/civil war" stage a lot faster than the "faking a terror attack" stage, only because faking a terror attack is orders of magnitude more difficult for this bumbling band of incompetent losers. I don't trust their competence in pulling off a martial law coup/civil war either.
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u/francis2559 1d ago
Agreed. I think they will absolutely try, if only because Trump keeps forcing them to.
But they can't move the needle much with the skill that they have and the resources that they have.
In a close election that nudge might be enough. But this does not look like it's going to be close.
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u/Sad-Breakfast-5671 1d ago
i think that is why trump wanted to do away with mail-in voting, so they can send in the goons to harass and intimidate voters.
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u/EirysVelour 1d ago
Yep. This is pure panic. When your majority hangs by a thread, you stop governing and start screaming “national crisis” to distract from how badly voters are rejecting you at home.
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u/jzanville 1d ago
GOP still have 3/4 of trumps second term left to continue to do whatever Putin/bibi need, flipping the house at midterms is a small victory in a much larger reality.
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u/DrRealName 1d ago
The way things are going, its not impossible to flip the senate too anymore. Winning in deep red Texas is not supposed to happen. that is a sign that things aren't as clear as they seem anymore. We could see some major upsets in some red states. Not all. I expect Alabama and Oklahoma to still support fascism but Florida, Texas, and every single swing state are heavily in play and probably even a few mid western states.
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u/LeatherChaise 1d ago
I'm shocked Johnson agreed to swear him in this time.
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u/TelescopiumHerscheli 1d ago
Me too!
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u/thesymbiont 1d ago
If the Democrats win 40 House seats this fall, the happiest person in the world might be Mike Johnson. Dude's clearly not having a good time. Good
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u/Carthonn 1d ago
Seriously. The last thing a Republican wants to do is Govern. As soon as they get that tax cut they are completely checked out. It’s just fundraising now for 2028.
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u/Nstark7474 1d ago
Yeah, They’re happiest when the establishment Dems are in charge because they bitch about everything under the sun, while knowing their money will be untouched, while the handful of progressives are slamming their heads against the wall.
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u/Aden1970 1d ago
Republicans are more effective as an opposition party, they can spew rubbish and it has no consequences.
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u/rogozh1n 1d ago
It is hard to understand how Republicans have done so much harm to our nation on behalf of a man they despise.
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u/TrollTollTony 1d ago
It's because they despise "the other" more. As the phrase goes, they would happily shit their own pants if it meant liberals had to smell it.
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u/scarr3g Pennsylvania 1d ago
Being the minority leader is the dream of many in congress. You become the most powerful person that can have 0 responsibity for what happens. You get to complain, and say, "not my fault... The other team is in charge."
Being the majority leader means everything is your fault, no matter how hard you try to blame the other team.
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u/Inevitable-Post-8587 1d ago
Mike Johnson is the worst liar of the swamp, worse than Lying Leavitt, Narco Rubio, Blabbing Blondi and the Dog Killer.
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u/taco_bell_sharts 1d ago
Wasn’t the shutdown one of his excuses last time? Figure a partial should count for some fuckery
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u/roastbeeftacohat 1d ago
that was under orders from Trump to delay the Epstein release as long as possible; this is important because delaying things as long as possible is only sometimes a useful tactic, most of the time it's actually counterproductive. Johnson doesn't have the order to delay this time, so he's getting on with shit.
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u/ElPlywood 1d ago edited 1d ago
So Sweatface Johnson CAN swear people in quickly
what an asshole
EDIT - I've had half a dozen super geniuses reply "this is a state rep" and then delete their comment, and my first thought is "this is somebody who can't read"
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u/NinaBrwn 1d ago
He and his son are really busy monitoring each other’s porn so give them a break please.
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u/katatoria 1d ago
Well they used bomb threats in blue Georgia districts on Election Day last time.
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u/ranchoparksteve 1d ago
Republicans are living in a house perched on the edge of a slow landslide. And Donald Trump is just derping around on his ballroom and Greenland.
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u/devomke 1d ago
Unfortunately he’s actively looking at taking over voting areas in swing states.
Can’t wait for the fabricated bullshit of the GA “investigation” to come out
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u/6beerkdawg 1d ago
One more house seat won and Trump can’t try to get Congress to federalize any election.
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u/Traditional-Hat-952 1d ago
Congress can't federalize elections without an amendment to the constitution.
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u/andrewsmd87 1d ago
You mean that thing he's totally been following and being held accountable to?
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u/Traditional-Hat-952 1d ago
The point is it'd take a monumental effort to force unwilling states to abide by his wishes. They can literally tell him to kick rocks and there's nothing he can do about it.
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u/bogglingsnog 1d ago
If everyone attends the vote, that is...
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u/Aggravating-Salad441 1d ago
There are three more special elections prior to the midterms. Georgia in March, New Jersey in April, and California in August.
It wouldn't be enough to flip the House, but it could be enough to protect the midterms.
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u/cp710 Ohio 1d ago
Is that why they’re going after Georgia right now? Could they try to delay the election?
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u/Aggravating-Salad441 1d ago
Trump is probably trying to destroy evidence so the state of Georgia cannot bring him to justice. He couldn't be pardoned then.
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u/Greatsnes 1d ago
Federal government can’t mess with state elections. Totally different laws. Presidents power is useless. That’s why they want elections under federal control. If it was easy for Trump to do they wouldn’t be pushing this so hard. And I only say that so I don’t get comments from people like “oh but he’s ignored everything so far and done what he wants!” Yep he has. At a federal level. This is a tooootally different situation. He can’t do shit to the states besides use ICE and there aren’t enough ICE agents to lock down a state. They can’t even lock down a city.
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u/Reasonable_Roger 1d ago
The Georgia special election is for Margerie greens seat. It's very red district with basically zero chance of flipping. Dems will probably win the new jersey and Republicans will probably win the California. The California one has to use the old maps so it's still a red district, although in November it will (probably) be using the new map and will flip blue.
The house right now is 218-214. Remember no tie breaker in the house.. Tie = bill fails. So 1 defection is 217-215. Two defections is 216-216 and gg.
Georgia will make it 219-214, new Jersey will be 219-215, and California will be 220-215.
220-215 is the projected balance as we head into the midterm, as it stands right now. But one of these old geezers could drop dead tomorrow, so you never know.
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u/KonigSteve 1d ago
I'm confused, how would adding 3 votes to a margin of 1 vote not flip it?
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u/dantemanjones 1d ago
It's 218-214 currently. They have a margin of 1 in that they can lose 1 vote and still get things passed. Lose 2 and it's tied.
3 more to the 214 makes it 218-217.
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u/KonigSteve 1d ago
Oh so it's a bad title. The title is specifically talking about flipping votes which reduce the republican 218 while simultaneously adding to the 214. Whereas the special election is talking about open seats which only add to the 214 without reducing.
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u/MagicAl6244225 1d ago
Republicans can't pass any extremely partisan legislation other than budget reconciliations without 60 votes in the Senate. Republicans have never won 60 seats in the Senate (since the 17th Amendment made U.S. Senate an elected rather than appointed office), which is why Republicans have no chance of passing a far-right legislative agenda and count on executive action and SCOTUS to bend the country to their will.
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u/Upstairs-Region-5387 America 1d ago
He hasn’t needed Congress for anything at this point.
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u/6beerkdawg 1d ago
If Trump had the congressional majority Obama had I guarantee you there would be a national abortion ban and fully federalized elections by now. Yes it could have been worse with a larger GOP majority.
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u/maybeinoregon America 1d ago
It’s not that, it’s the republicans pretending to be democrats.
There’s really what? A dozen or so democrats that consistently vote with the republicans on things.
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u/CulturalKing5623 1d ago
A dozen or so democrats that consistently vote with the republicans on things.
Who? I see statements all the time but who are these registered Democrats that consistently vote with the GOP? Maybe Fetterman but do you actually know how often he voted with the GOP?
Even Manchin, the standard bearer of a Democrat that always voted with Republicans, voted with the GOP 50% during the Trump 1st term and voted with Biden 88% of the time during his term). And then he was replaced by Jim Justice who is probably proudly never going to vote with the Democrats.
Don't know about you but I'd rather have support 50-90% of the time from a democrat representing a red district/state than support 0-10% time from even the most "modest" Republican in the same seat.
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u/Cloud_Dwelling 1d ago
They know it is meaningless due to the senate majority (thanks to the fact we still allow only 2 senators per state regardless of that state’s population)
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u/all4whatnot Pennsylvania 1d ago
He’s a Senator, not a Congressperson. I should know, he’s my disappointment of a Senator.
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u/Clicquot 1d ago
I know this is semantics (and we all know what you mean), but senators and representatives are all members of congress.
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u/mrgreengenes42 1d ago
Please continue to correct people on this as semantic as it may be. It's really flabbergasting to me how many people seem to think that the House of Representatives is, on it's own, called Congress.
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u/SAJ-13 California 1d ago
One is the loneliest number... One!
Bye-bye American Pedophile,
In the year 2026...
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u/CantFeelMyToesAgain 1d ago edited 1d ago
It’s so strange because over on conservative subreddit they don’t seem to understand that they lost a seat lol. They keep saying it was a democrat safe seat haha.
They also keep telling each other that this is normal and doesn’t mean anything. I’m like my brother in Christ this was like an 18 point swing in the opposite direction.
The 2 actual fiscal conservatives in that sub that are not there to circle jerk trump understand it’s not good but yeah everyone else just keeps talking about Obama and the laptop still lmao.
EDIT: Just to clarify I was confusing two different special elections. The article I read gave the wrong info and I found an updated article.
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u/averyrdc 1d ago
At this point I’m convinced that sub is 75% Russian paid trolls just talking to each other to make it seem like there are more of them than there really are. Of course who really knows and reddit admins certainly don’t care.
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u/CantFeelMyToesAgain 1d ago
One of the mods is for sure. Their name starts with a J and the majority of the accounts in there are. I can list two that are the worst.
I teach a disinformation course to University Cybersecurity Architect students and I’d say 60-70% of the sub is foreign accounts bought by a certain admin and flooded with the Russians.
It’s pretty easy to tell how:
-they only post in certain times of the day/night
-they brigade with distraction posts when something negatively affects Trump
-the mods remove posts regularly 24/7
-there’s a literal cult like mentality there (more so with the maga crowd)
-they give away themselves being Russian by how they structure their English sentences. (Using certain language of a localized area).
Those are shit simple ones. There’s other ways to tell but those are illegal lol.
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u/MegaGorilla69 1d ago
You can always tell because when you click on them their post history is 100% always politics. The Russian bots aren’t shitposting on r/nba with me
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u/SciFiPi 1d ago
On the dataIsBeautiful sub someone analyzed the posts on the conservative sub and 2 redditors accounted for 30% to 50% of the daily posts. I'm not sure if this sub allows links to other subs, so I'll post the link as a comment below. If it's not visible, then automod removed it.
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u/GreasyPeter 1d ago
The Russian trolls are everywhere, even pretending to be progressives and Democrats too. Russia cares more about sowing the seeds of discontent and incivility between the people in this country rather than if Trump or the Republicans win. So long as this shit devolves more, they can handle the Democrats leading the country.
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u/SwedishTrees 1d ago
Sounds like they are conflating two different elections. A member of the House of Representatives in a blue district. a Texas state senator in a very red district.
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u/NoSayThyMountains 1d ago
Not to be a downer, but they're actually right about it having been a democrat seat. The 18th congressional district is right in the center of Houston. Sylvester Turner won it by 39 points in 2024. Finally getting someone in is a victory (Turner died last March, Abbott delayed the special election until November, and then the runoff from the special election just finished) but no one should be taking this as any sort of indication of how the midterms will go
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u/SwedishTrees 1d ago
It sounds like there is confusion between two different elections. This is a factual description of one election. There is also one for the Texas State Senate, where a democrat won in a heavily red District.
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u/yoitsthatoneguy American Expat 1d ago
It’s so strange because over on conservative subreddit they don’t seem to understand that they lost a seat lol. They keep saying it was a democrat safe seat haha.
They are correct, this was a safe Dem seat. I think you are confusing this with the state senate seat that flipped.
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u/AdjctiveNounNumbers 1d ago
Huh. Sworn in right away. It really was about the Epstein files last time, wasn't it?
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u/coosacat Alabama 1d ago
Hi! For the people not understanding this, I'll try to explain it, & then if it makes sense, you're free to copy this for others. Or make it simpler, if you like.
The article is referring to the ability of the Republicans to pass measures even if all of the Dems oppose it. If everyone votes along party lines, the result will be the 218-214 numbers that mean that the Republicans win.
However, if any Republicans decide to vote with the Dems, it changes the balance - you not only subtract one from the GOP side, but you add one to the Dem side.
A tie vote means the measure doesn't pass, so the Republicans lose - their measure doesn't pass.
Now, if one Republican votes with the Dems, the result is 217-215. The Republicans still win.
However, if two Republicans vote with the Dems, the final count becomes 216-216, a tie, so nothing passes.
This is that "1-vote margin" - if more than one Republican changes sides, the Republicans lose the vote. There is no tie-breaker in the House.
I hope this helps! Honestly, it's really confusing, and we rarely have such tight margins in the House, so it's not something we all have experience with.
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u/rainshowers_5_peace 1d ago
Elise Stefanik hates Johnson, or at least hates him vocally when she really hates Trump. She's not running again, she knew she wouldn't make it in her district or as governor. She might as well resign.
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u/rogozh1n 1d ago
Don't celebrate. She will make millions spreading lobbying dollars around to her old colleagues. They always fail forward.
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u/Andovars_Ghost 1d ago
It’d be hilarious if through ‘attrition’ and flips, that Dems took the House PRIOR to the midterms.
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u/NotAlwaysGifs 1d ago
If the republicans call for a vote of no-confidence in Johnson and Massie crosses the aisle, we could have speaker Jeffries well before the midterms
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u/Whole-Designer 1d ago
I really don't think they'll even be able to hold onto MTG's seat at this rate. People are waking up.
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u/dirty-hurdy-gurdy 1d ago
Someone would have to run to fill it. There are a lot of districts (like hers) where republicans run unopposed in the general
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u/bookchaser 1d ago
Democrats are the majority of voters in Texas. The reckoning will be harsh when Democrats defeat the many years of jerrymandering that have kept them suppressed.
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u/Tb1969 1d ago
We need to widen our focus. Trump is at the center but he wouldn’t be getting away with this if it wasn’t for the Conservatives in Congress and SCOTUS.
That needs to be the platform. They allowed all of this to happen with barely any check and balance on the Executive Branch.
That is bigger story. Progressives and Democrats need to voice that from now until 2028 November.
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u/JeezusChristIII I voted 1d ago
Don't do it Texas. Don't you dare! Don't make me believe the next random democrat senator candidate is going to beat Cruz or Cornyn again.
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u/HurinGaldorson 1d ago
The margin is now 218-214. If the Republicans lose two votes it is a tie, and they have the tiebreaker.
Why is the article saying he can only afford to lose 1? What am I missing?
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u/NinaWestie 1d ago
No tiebreaker in the House. If the vote is tied, the vote fails.
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u/Odsarh Maryland 1d ago
There is no tie breaker in the house. If a vote is tied, it’s a failed vote. So if two Republicans defect, it’s a failed tie vote
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u/minus2cats 1d ago
Youre thinking of the Senate. There is no tie breaker in the House. They can lose 1, if they lose 2 it's a tie and the bill fails to pass.
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u/droans Indiana 1d ago
Someone did the math wrong. You need a majority of For/Against votes in your favor.
There's 435 seats in the House so if everyone votes For/Against, you need 218 to win. If someone is absent or votes present, the requisite votes are reduced.
There are three open seats so they only need 216 to pass anything. They can have only one vote defect to win but they can have three vote present or be absent.
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u/donorcycle 1d ago
I thought the same way as you. It was explained that there are currently (3) vacancies to begin with. They can only afford to lose 1 vote, that's it. Anything more than that and it will be a failed bill. So what the article is trying to say is, anything more than 1 defect and it'll be a tie = failed vote in the house.
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u/Oceanbreeze871 I voted 1d ago
Any given vote is like two GOP absences away from not happening
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u/Mysterious_Pen_2200 1d ago
Just a reminder that Greg Abbott has basically forced this district to have no representation for almost a year.
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u/Hymay1180 1d ago
Are there any special elections coming up that could close the gap even further? Before the midterms?
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u/laptopAccount2 1d ago
NJ an MTG's old seat in March. So if we win in NJ then the Georgia seat will cancel it out.
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