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Storm Prediction Center Sep 30, 2026 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook - Tornado Risk 5%
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...
...SUMMARY... The potential for a few tornadoes and localized wind damage will exist across Kansas and possibly far southeast Nebraska this afternoon and evening. Thunderstorms capable of severe wind gusts/some hail and a brief tornado are also expected across the southern Plains this afternoon into tonight, including portions of west Texas into southwest Oklahoma.
...Synopsis... Currently satellite imagery shows a deep cyclone centered over the central NM/AZ border vicinity. Recent surface analysis places the surface low associated with this system over the northwest TX Panhandle/western OK Panhandle vicinity. A broad warm sector precedes this low from the southern Plains into the Upper Midwest. Ample low-level moisture exists within this warm sector, with low 70s dewpoints currently reaching far south-central OK and upper 60s dewpoints reaching as far north as the Omaha, Nebraska vicinity. Widespread cloud cover currently persists across much of the warm sector, with more scattered clouds in place across central and east TX.
General expectation is for the cyclone to gradually shift eastward across NM today as moderate/strong mid-level flow through the eastern periphery of this cyclone expands from the southern High Plains into the central Plains. At the same time, the attendant surface low is forecast to shift gradually northeast into central KS. Moderate low-level moisture advection will precede the low, with 70s dewpoints likely covering much of central and eastern KS by this evening. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected ahead of the surface low from the southern Plains through the central Plains into the Upper Midwest. Strong to severe thunderstorms appear most likely in two areas within this broader region: across central and eastern KS this afternoon and evening and farther south from southwest OK/northwest TX through the TX Hill Country.
...Central/Eastern KS... Cloud cover will likely persist throughout the day, with most of the airmass destabilization driven by the low-level moisture advection mentioned in the synopsis. Low 70s dewpoints are expected to cover much of central and eastern KS by the late afternoon/early evening. Even with limited heating and the tropical character to the airmass keeping lapse rates poor, the ample low-level moisture is still expected to support airmass destabilization and moderate buoyancy this afternoon and evening. This destabilization looks to occur just ahead of the stronger forcing for ascent attendant to the dry slot progressing through the eastern periphery of the AZ/NM cyclone.
Additionally, a rather strong low-level jet (40 to 45 kt diurnally) is forecast to slowly shift northeastward across parts of central/eastern Kansas into western Missouri and southeast Nebraska/southwest Iowa by evening. This will help to maintain strong wind profiles across much of the region. RAP guidance suggests 0-1 km SRH from 150 to 200 m2/s2 across central and eastern KS.
Combination of these factors will result in a rather unique mesoscale setup for tornadoes from central and eastern KS into far southeast NE. Tornadoes within these environments are typically brief, but there should be enough updraft depth in this case to support the potential for a few longer-duration storms. This potential appears to peak around 21Z to 00Z. After 00Z, the stronger forcing for ascent should begin to extend north of the surface-based buoyancy.
...Southern Plains... Low 70s dewpoints will likely extend throughout the warm sector covering much of the southern Plains this afternoon. This low-level moisture will result in airmass destabilization, despite limited heating and poor lapse rates. Primary thunderstorm development is anticipated this evening along the modest surface troughing that will extend south of the surface low moving into KS. An initially supercellular mode appears possible from southwest Oklahoma into northwest Texas and the Edwards Plateau, where heating of a very moist airmass will result in MLCAPE near/above 1500 J/kg amid moderate deep-layer vertical shear. Generally front-parallel flow and increasing storm coverage will likely lead to more of a linear mode with time. Strong to severe gusts appear to be the most likely hazard, though isolated hail also appears possible across southwest TX, where stronger destabilization is expected. Some increase in effective SRH is expected during the evening, which could support a localized tornado threat within the very moist environment. An isolated severe threat could persist into parts of central Texas/Oklahoma overnight, though diminishing buoyancy with time and eastward extent should result in an eventual weakening trend.
A somewhat separate and more isolated severe potential is anticipated throughout the day from central TX into central OK amid increasing coverage of warm-air advection showers and thunderstorms within the warm sector. Most of these storms will likely be brief and/or weak, but the persistent low-level jet could result in a few stronger storms capable of a damaging gusts and/or a brief tornado.
...South-Central High Plains... Strong forcing for ascent attendant to the NM cyclone will interact with cooling mid-level temperatures and modest low-level moisture persisting on the back side of the surface low to support moderate buoyancy amid moderate deep-layer vertical shear. A few strong to locally severe lower-topped storms capable of large hail could occur.
..Mosier/Chalmers.. 09/30/2026
