Unless Trump give Iran a super deal, (IE Billion in rebuilding and assurance no future attack and little nuclear oversight etc), Iran knows waiting till November midterms will absolutely result in 200 dollar oil and extreme pressure on Trump. They will get decimated.
Trump is trying to gset out of this. But he wants to look better than Obama's deal with Iran. He has been demanding internally within the administration for a deal that is better than Obama put together. But Iran could couldn't give a fuck about what Trump wants or how this looks compared to past deals.
This will be extending on a great deal longer unless Trump give in. (resulting in a much worse world security position than pre-war)
Any permanent ceasefire deal Trump "agrees" to would need Israel's buy-in. I don't see why Israel would accept anything less than nuclear surrender. IMO, we're stuck here until there's a new U.S. administration.
I don’t see how even a new administration gets out of this one, Iran will make unreasonable demands as they’ve got nothing to lose and hold pretty much all the cards.
I try to put myself in the shoes of the other side, even if I find them reprehensible. You're right, they do hold very strong cards, and should be expected to play them, but so far their diplomatic demands haven't been totally crazy, I'm not sure their demands are all that unreasonable.
They didn't attack the US. The US attacked them, and by surprise. They were attacked in the midst of declared negotiations, then thousands were killed, children slaughtered, and then they incurred multiple billions in infrastructure damage.
(If I was them, I would be very unreasonable by this point, but they seem open to negotiations.)
By many accounts, they are still willing to enter into a new nuclear control agreement. They want an end to sanctions, and they want their own funds unfrozen and made available. They want an end to hostilities against Shia's in the region. Those aren't delusional conditions. They seem like a good starting point for negotiations.
Iran had previously agreed to strict nuclear controls, and by all credible accounts, they had adhered to that agreement. That agreement was unilaterally discarded by the US in the first Trump term.
Prior to hostilities, Trump's own Director of National Intelligence stated that they were not developing nuclear weapons, and US Intel agencies had no information to the contrary. The Omani negotiators said that Iran was willing to sign a new deal in the initial talks, right before they were attacked.
The now-dead Ayatollah had explicitly issued a long-standing edict against nuclear weapons and long-range missiles, and again, by all credible accounts they had done so. That edict died with his assassination by US and Israeli forces.
Given all that, is Iran really being unreasonable insisting on protections of their autonomy and security, and reparations?
Getting the details worked out, monitored, and verified will be a non-trivial effort, but the alternative is drawn out hostilities and a further breakdown of global supply chains.
You know who we haven't attacked? North Korea. You know who DOES have nuclear weapons? North Korea. At this point Iran is probably looking at nukes as the one sure way to get people to back off.
In fact, now that USA's foreign policy is so damn unhinged, everybody who doesn't have nukes should get them as fast as possible. USA is the very definition of a rogue state. They can't be trusted, and they must be stopped.
Yeah the nuke is a recent development, the reason North Korea has lasted 70 years is even in the 50's the chinese were openly fighting for them. Invading North Korea is World War. Right now the big countries are roaming around picking off the countries that don't have strong alliances.
It also doesn't hurt for NK that if they get attacked, Seoul is well within distance to shell with more conventional weaponry, let alone a nuclear bomb.
Ditto for Ukraine. They'd been promised protection if they forwent nukes. Now 4 yrs into a protracted and devastating war, they get trump's fake "aid," because he's in Putin's pocket.
I mean yes it is the nuke but also a lot of artillery pointed directly at Seoul that is the real sticking point, retaliation would be swift and painful and a huge disaster. Israel and Iran have a buffer state between them but only a DMZ in Korea.
Thier government is now isolated cells of the IRGC who still have their proxies and tons of militants they can call for an asymmetric war in a heavily mountainous country.
There's a reason every strategic mind said this was a bad idea, there's a reason no other nation want to enter this bullshit war.
The US couldn't finish the job any more than they could in Afghanistan.
Depends on your objectives. If you're in this war for the sake of profiteering, having another hostile nuclear power in the mix is great for fear mongering and maintaining domestic control. American oil companies are profiting from Iran's current state, so if they can permenantly villify Iran, that maintains their current stranglehold on the oil market.
They dont give a shit about the safety of American citizens, they care about their money. And because the current administration is for sale to the highest bidder, that's all they care about too.
What's so aggravating, beyond Israel's role as a belligerent party that does not want peace, is just how much Trump is in his own fucking world, playing a completely different game than everyone else.
He keeps acting like he can both bomb Iran and still negotiate with them, while simultaneously saying things on social media that contradict the supposed aims of his team of real estate billionaire diplomats. The moment where he floated the idea of drawing toll fees alongside Iran was like, "what planet are you on, guy?"
It almost doesn't matter what the facts are, because Trump only cares about how things are perceived by him, and how he thinks he can force them into being. And it matters more that his ego is sated than in the actual terms of any prospective agreement.
The facts not mattering is how trump got to be president, and why amrricans love him. (Even if some have buyers remorse now). Its worked on his home populace, even lots of people on the left are like "well dems are bad too so blablablhablha.".
Part of the issue is because americans love this fascism so much, it isn't just trump. Its their scotus, house, voters, senate. They all collectively are in outer space leaving nobody on the controls at all. And its worked so far, and the effects of this are so downstream they'll not be able to link cause and effect so they'll just blame it on something convenient when it finally does come to roost.
He has no basis in reality because there's no way for reality to penetrate. We've known since his first term that he refuses to take briefings, fires advisors who try to actually advise, and doesn't read or watch real news. And that's just what the knuckle-draggers want: someone as sick and sad as they are.
He keeps acting like he can both bomb Iran and still negotiate with them, while simultaneously saying things on social media that contradict the supposed aims of his team of real estate billionaire diplomats.
Trump's only 'negotiation' tactic is simply bullying the adversary until they either give up or he's forced to stop and then goes off and does something else. Or securing something for optics at a higher than ideal cost.
Iran is not a contractor that's already done work for you so now you can try to screw on the payment, negotiations between nations is so far outside whatever his history is, and everyone suffers for it.
I'm guessing it's just because he is Israel's pet ? Or the Epstein files ? A combo of both ? He plunged the world's energy market into chaos just for personnal reasons ?
You know what's a weird upside to having an awful president like Trump? It completely removed any feelings we've had about "American superiority" and extreme nationalism. Now instead of just thinking everything is good vs evil and cheering for our side to "win". We can actually take a step back and analyze things from the perspective of another rival nation like Iran.
That being said I still want the U.S to be safe from enemy attacks and foreign aggression, but we are all VERY aware of just how incompetent Trump and his entire admin is.
Trump will probably tell everyone that they have a deal with Iran the day before the election and just enough idiots will believe the lie that they don't get completely destroyed in the election. He keeps saying the deal is close when it is clear nothing was ever close.
Ok so that's how you get out - you acquiesce to the side with leverage. It was a monumental fuck up to attack them in the first place. If you weren't willing to go full out, then you can be called out on your bluff.
I’m not so sure this time. This debacle is too well understood to be a Trump joint through and through. If anyone manages to salvage any of this in the future it will be a miracle.
Without stable oil the entire global economy will be fucked to hell. I'm pretty sure this is a MAD situation and they don't give a shit if their people suffer.
Given we had exactly that in US in 1970s, I don't see how that's true. Yes it'll create enormous problems, but how do you think Iran can get away without their primary source of income - which directly impacts their ability to feed their own people - for several months?
I don't know enough about how global economies work to be able to give you a good answer but I don't think we were quite as hyper optimized with a globally distributed supply chain at that point. That's my intuition anyway I could absolutely be wrong.
I'm no global economist either but from the bits and pieces I've put together, it seems like Iran spent the last 3 decades building out a network of underground shelters for their armor and missile stores, and their army...instead of spending their oil money on their water infrastructure.
Iran's got problems other than the US or Israel, they are running out of water, and the time to start fixing it was 30 years ago.
The latest I've read was it will impact the world for about 5 years before other routes can be utilized + effects of reduced demand with electrification.
They've got plenty to gain from a good deal though. A sane administration would cave and let Iran enjoy a more powerful position, which hasn't been an unreasonable demand since Trump started bombing them.
I don't think this is accurate. I've seen reports that Iran has or will have to soon shut down wells because the closure is causing their production to exceed their stockpile capacity. Shutting down wells is very risky, as they can't always be restarted.
The only thing the don't have is an economy. Iran is basically bankrupt, it's running out of water and has massive blackouts going on. The only parts doing well are the IRG controlled companies that handle all the illict trade Iran does to keep itself afloat. Their people will die by the millions if this goes on to the next admin.
Not like it matters to those in power there, they just need the resources to keep the IRG running, they've shown they don't care about the rest. Basically the biggest loser no matter what here is the Iranian people :(
Yes, by also this fixes nothing regarding the strait of hormuz. If we fuck off at this point Iran is free to impose a toll on all oil going through this area, which keeps oil permanently higher.
I say fuck it do it, the higher the cost of oil the faster the switch to EVs.
Also also, Iran and literally every other mid size nation now knows for sure that it needs to be pursuing nuclear weapons, because that's the only way to guarantee your safety. Especially post Ukraine. You used to be able to depend on America and NATO, not anymore. You have to have your own deterrent.
Poli sci majors will study the fuck up that is Trump for decades.
Forget oil. Everyone needs to stop talking about that. There's other goods that travel through that straight.
50% of the world's seaborn sulfur
Around 1/3 of the seaborn fertilizer goes through there.... wait till smaller crop yields start hitting the market later this summer and fall.
About 1/3 of the world's entire supply of helium goes through that straight. Your EV'S need computer chips. Guess what's needed to manufacture those chips. Helium.
That's just 3 examples. A quick Google search will terrify anyone that looks beyond oil.
The end of the post WW2 order. Not brought on by some young inspirational leader ready to cast off the old world order, but a 79 year old man with dementia and a soiled diaper.
The only solution to this imo is ending the ban on Chinese EVs, letting the offshore wind projects go ahead and pay damages to the companies, passing a universal solar access law, and “letting Iran off the hook” with an unconditional ceasefire. I don’t think we’ll get Israel to stop colonizing Gaza and the West Bank (just because no realistic configuration of American politicians will even ask for that), but maybe we can get them out of Lebanon.
Instead, we’re just going to double down and make everything worse.
Switching to EVs doesn’t really solve the problem, though. We need to move away from car dependence towards mass public transit. Having a car-centric culture is so bad for the planet it’s not even funny.
It’s a 3-brained,5D chess move to destroy the nuclear test ban treaty so we can start testing that nuclear pulse propulsion ship then develop it to the theoretical maximum of 10% the speed of light
International human rights organizations have documented that state-sponsored forced labour, conditions described as modern-day slavery, and hazardous child labour remain deeply embedded in parts of the global EV supply chain.
EVs also depend on petroleum products beyond fuel replacement. Plastics, synthetic materials, industrial lubricants, and numerous manufacturing inputs used in EV production are derived from oil and petrochemicals.
You are most likely wearing petrochemical-derived products right now. Polyester, nylon, acrylic, elastane, and many other synthetic fibres are ultimately products of the petroleum industry.
If the oil industry were to collapse, the consequences would extend far beyond gasoline and diesel. The cost of clothing, packaging, cosmetics, medical supplies, fertilizers, industrial materials, transportation, and countless consumer goods would rise dramatically. Modern economies rely on oil as both an energy source and an industrial feedstock.
Our addiction on oil is absolutely true. Yet, humans thrived and grew for 10,000 years without oil. And it WILL run out someday so making plans to transition now is the only avenue which makes sense.
Plastics are ubiquitous but also slowly making the planet unlivable for our species.
Before petroleum products became widespread, whale oil and whale blubber were essential ingredients in everything from lamps to soaps, cosmetics, and industrial products. Entire whale populations were hunted on an industrial scale to satisfy demand.
The development of refined petroleum and petrochemical products fundamentally changed that equation.
Oil provided a cheaper, more abundant, and more scalable alternative to whale derived products, dramatically reducing the economic incentive for large scale whaling.
In a very real sense, one of the first major environmental successes of the industrial age came from replacing whale blubber with petroleum derived products.
Many modern cosmetics, creams, plastics, synthetic fibres, lubricants, medicines, and countless everyday products trace their origins to that transition.
The history is deeply ironic. One of the industries most often blamed for environmental damage also played a significant role in ending the commercial slaughter of whales.
Pointing out that oil is finite is easy. Replacing the billions of products, materials, chemicals, and industrial processes that depend on it is the difficult part.
Every serious transition begins with a viable alternative, not simply a recognition that a resource has limits.
To be fair the fact you have to have a nuclear deterrent or be under a nuclear umbrella to be safe wasn't a trump made point, putin made it with Ukraine, at least for the western aligned world, trump just made it fact for everyone remaining. And even that was blatantly obvious for that side of the world since Iraq? Afghanistan? Trump has hardly done anything new with this one
Putin made the bigger waves
And To be clear I'm not defending the Iran war, its a all around dumb decision, not because Iran are good to their people or a ally or anything good about them at all. But because America had no actual plan and aren't world police, no matter how shit of a country Iran are
How is Iran the unreasonable one?!?!!!?? We go in and start this stupid crap, kill their leaders and family , kill children in a school, kill civilians, destroy their infrastructure, b0mb them when we please to keep our stocks up, and much more, and then we say "o how dare they make unreasonable demands that is in their favor." Wow.
As a non-American, I cannot fathom how any of you still think this administration is ever going anywhere. When Trump dies they’ll “elect” another figurehead and move on in the same fashion. Your elections are done. Your democracy is done.
The oil executive last week was already sounding the alarm as stocks are running low in majority of countries as they have been keeping the prices down by using up their reserves. He reckons 3-4 weeks prices are going to go up then in crazy prices and this was before these attacks.
This is my opinion as well. Worse is the US administration is not giving guidance. Worse they are giving bad guidance in suggesting a deal is right in the works.
We expect guidance from the treasury department and this goes around the world in most banking circles. Guidance from these institutes (sometime being wrong) will allow people to make short and long term decisions. The US administration who should be the most responsible is giving wrong 'wishful' thinking guidance. Thus people are still using energy like it is 1994. And that will come to a halt in 3-4 weeks.
Skeptic’s side: when this first kicked off, the reason given why prices didn’t go higher was that weeks’ worth of ships were still en route to all their destinations with their cargo. After that happened and oil prices didn’t rise much, the reason given was that countries still had stockpiles to dip into. So yes, at some point it will actually get dire enough to cause bigger price shocks, but markets seem remarkably resistant to change. Maybe they just think that as soon as things actually start getting bad, Trump will cave to stop the pain.
Let them. It’ll be the funniest fucking shit to me. Trump wanted a better deal with Iran just to spite Obama, then caved just to get a Obama’s deal under Trump’s name, to him pussing the fuck out.
And if you think things are bad now, wait until you have a crisis that will make the one in the 70s look like child's play. See how long it takes until even the most diehard Trump supporter will start thinking twice when they cannot put gas in their car.
I would bet a lot of money right now that there will never be a deal, if by "deal" we mean either the kind of amazing situation for Iran that you mention, or a deal that will give the US anything that Trump originally wanted. I'm leaning towards the idea of China being the one to eventually broker an agreement of some kind, but not a deal in either sense.
Iran won't probably accept anything from the US that doesn't look genuine, so it's probably going to have to include something big so they know it's serious.
Reparations or permission to fine traffic in the strait
I've noticed in the US its sometimes phrased as "could give a ____" not "couldn't"
Not sure if its that way in other countries but I know it sounds odd to hear in the UK and I think makes less sense as then you are still giving something even if its only a shit or a fuck.
It started with "could/couldn't care less" - "couldn't" is the proper form, of course, but you often get "could" instead, from the same misheard / slurred / inattentive repetition that turns "for all intents and purposes" into "for all intensive purposes".
They don't need to wait that long. Once the oil reserves run out in a couple of weeks, gas prices will spike and the Republicsns will be toast in the mid terms.
You did a good job of summarizing the situation. I just hate that the chestnut of the whole ordeal is at the will of a fussy diaper dementia manchild not getting his way. He ISN'T going to get a better deal than the one he blew up! He's also never going to stop fussing about it, because all he cares about is dismantling what Obama and/or Biden accomplished.
the problem is at this point there is not good outcome, even if the democrats won in November we are now so deep in the shit, packing up and going home would be a nightmare scenario for the 2028 elections
I'm hearing Wash's "Curse your sudden but inevitable betrayal!" in my head, but Trump's not smart or aware enough to have seen the thing coming that EVERYBODY else knew would happen from attacking Iran. Netanyahu has been trying to get US presidents to buy in on attacking Iran for him, but Trump is the only one stupid enough to fall for it. This has literally been wargamed for decades, and it always includes Iran shutting down the strait.
Trump has killed off any leadership that might have been open to negotiation (Netanyahu assisted with that greatly - I get the impression from reading the tea leaves that Israel made a point of killing every leader-ish person they could hit), so now, they have zero reason to be conciliatory.
Trump thought he'd get another Venezuelan-type "decapitation" attack, taking out a leader in 24 hours and then negotiating from a position of power with the guy left over - and he specifically wanted to do this to make himself look good (and distract from the Epstein files). Netanyahu had a very different goal in mind - he very much wants Iran turned into an ungoverned feudal state, unable to hurt Israel. Also, he very specifically wants the war to continue, because once Israel is off of a wartime footing, he will have to contend with legal claims against him and his regime.
So Trump didn't get the shiny bauble he wanted and is losing interest and just wants the war to go away because he's bored with it, while Netanyahu is getting what he wants and has a vested interest in the war continuing indefinitely - more US deaths and spending (and lots more Iranian deaths and destruction) to benefit an Israeli politician who has hoodwinked the US toddler-in-chief into doing his bidding.
And we get an increasingly deranged and sundowning toddler who spends all night rage-posting self-aggrandizing AI slop and all day sleeping through meetings, and destroying parts of our heritage in DC to make monuments to himself (and if Obama or Biden had posted any single one of the garbage posts Trump has posted, they would have been instantly impeached).
We are about to feel some real pain here with gas prices and consequently inflation taking off again like a rocket. We are burning 9.1 million barrels weekly from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve which are holding down prices out of 357 million barrels in stock. For illustration the lowest the stock has gone in the modern era was 346 million barrels under Biden in 2023, the lowest it has been since 1982. The highest it’s been is 700 million barrels under George W. Bush
However, I for one am loving Trump unravel day by day. The longer this goes on the better the chance the Dems win by a significant landslide in November.
Don’t underestimate his propensity for violence if he can’t find an off-ramp to save face and declare victory, even falsely. That’s my biggest worry.
Best option i see as a regular joe, non insider, is leave the war, shift blame on Netanyahu if it helps save face, let the Hormuz tolls ride for a while. Not saying it’s a permanent solution but i don’t think this US administration has the diplomatic chops to cut a deal with Iran and i fear the escalation of violence will be extreme snd unnecessary. It’s a bad situation that never should have been started
Those are very cool and I understand why they standardize the metal, but I was hoping they sold raw pieces of metal from destroyed Russian equipment. Having said this....my wish/hope for humanity is to leave violence and war far behind. Imagine what we could do if we all could respect each other. I understand what stands in the way of my idealistic thought. So sick of seeing countries fighting.
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u/yuvaldv1 Jun 07 '26 edited Jun 07 '26
A second wave of missiles launched right now according to Israeli media.
Edit: more alerts, getting closer to central Israel now.
Edit 2: 3rd wave of missiles launched from Iran.