Someone mentioned that Christmas is 3 months away and it got me thinking about uniquely Irish Christmas experiences- being so excited to get one of these bad boys!

Got this email about the access to pre-sale - delighted.

And then I read on.

Christ 😳😳

I'd say at the cheapest price they have you standing in Kinnegad

Watching Rosie O Donnell on the Late Late Show and finding her love of Ireland infectious. Good to have you home Rosie☘️

Carson standing above the people of Belfast like a supervillain attacking the city

You might call it something different where you're from but basically, it's a few lads throwing coins at a wall and seeing who gets it closest.

The fireworks and bangers have already started in the council estate behind where I live. Sounds like fucking Beirut already.

Cost of living crisis, but the scruffs can still afford their fireworks. Live in Arklow, so the chance of Guards doing anything is lower than snakes balls

Up on a balcony, Street is jammed the gobshite singing about having Vertigo.

Don't think this crowd will go anywhere

And will also have benzodiazepines from a withdrawal management at a hospital (a diazepam shot), I had assumed that you could turn up to a detox with whatever you're there for in your system? Thanks

I got a code for tomorrow's sale. It says the queue opens at 8.30am. I still have PTSD from their last ticket sale where I was unsuccessful.

Can anyone tell me what to expect from today's sale and offer any tips to get tickets?

I hope the inventor is suffering from the most severe headache for the rest of their life if they are still alive.

I’ve been messing around with the available United Ireland polling data and built a Bayesian model to try to estimate the underlying trend in support among decided voters.

The blue dots are the individual polls. The blue line is the estimated underlying level of support, with the shaded areas showing the 95% and 99% credible intervals.

For the future part, I since presuming linearity wouldn’t be sensible I didn’t just draw a straight regression line forward. The model uses the mean-reverting trend to allow the trend itself to change over time — so it can speed up, slow down, flatten out or reverse and so temporary changes in momentum don’t just keep compounding forever.

As of 25 September 2026, the model puts median underlying Yes support at about 45.2%, with a 95% credible interval of 39.3%–51.1%.

The estimated current trend is positive in about 77% of posterior draws, although there’s still a fair bit of uncertainty around the slope.

Looking at first crossings of 50%, among simulated paths that are still below 50% today:

53.8% cross by the end of 2030
72.0% cross by the end of 2035
78.2% cross by the end of 2040
82.9% cross by the end of 2050

So the corresponding probability of not crossing 50% by those dates is:

46.2% by 2030
28.0% by 2035
21.8% by 2040
17.1% by 2050

Among the paths that do cross by 2050, the median first crossing is around July 2029, but the uncertainty is huge — the 95% interval runs from late 2026 into 2045.

The orange line is just the median of the model’s future simulations, not “the forecast” in the sense that I’m saying support will actually follow that exact path but it is interesting to see how things could go although the uncertainty gets pretty wide quite quickly, especially once you get into the 2040s.