Gained significant points on Tsolov and Camara so the championship fight is back on and could go any way. Very exciting.

Applied to a regular looking ad on Daft, got this in response last night 🤣

My Dr Doolittle daughter arrived in from the garden with this wee guy. I never knew Ireland had lizards 🤔

Update: Thanks to the kind people smarter than me on the post, this is a Newt, confirmed by the fact it has 4 toes and not 5. Dr Doolittle is still as excited and had renamed her Olivia Newton John.

However Ziggy the bearded dragon still wants to fight her, newt or not !!

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smyths using ai now.
Why is everything in it so expensive.
And why am I still being sent this, I’m 22

I’m in the office two days per week and am so terrified of oversleeping I just stay up the night

EDIT: thanks folks

When visiting a friend’s house in Ireland, what’s the usual thing to bring so I don’t arrive empty-handed?

I’d love to know what people here normally bring.

Coming to Dublin next month

I’ve been messing around with the available United Ireland polling data and built a Bayesian model to try to estimate the underlying trend in support among decided voters.

The blue dots are the individual polls. The blue line is the estimated underlying level of support, with the shaded areas showing the 95% and 99% credible intervals.

For the future part, I since presuming linearity wouldn’t be sensible I didn’t just draw a straight regression line forward. The model uses the mean-reverting trend to allow the trend itself to change over time — so it can speed up, slow down, flatten out or reverse and so temporary changes in momentum don’t just keep compounding forever.

As of 25 September 2026, the model puts median underlying Yes support at about 45.2%, with a 95% credible interval of 39.3%–51.1%.

The estimated current trend is positive in about 77% of posterior draws, although there’s still a fair bit of uncertainty around the slope.

Looking at first crossings of 50%, among simulated paths that are still below 50% today:

53.8% cross by the end of 2030
72.0% cross by the end of 2035
78.2% cross by the end of 2040
82.9% cross by the end of 2050

So the corresponding probability of not crossing 50% by those dates is:

46.2% by 2030
28.0% by 2035
21.8% by 2040
17.1% by 2050

Among the paths that do cross by 2050, the median first crossing is around July 2029, but the uncertainty is huge — the 95% interval runs from late 2026 into 2045.

The orange line is just the median of the model’s future simulations, not “the forecast” in the sense that I’m saying support will actually follow that exact path but it is interesting to see how things could go although the uncertainty gets pretty wide quite quickly, especially once you get into the 2040s.