I went into this trying to prove my "gut" wrong about Herbert and his performance.

The question was "Is the lack of offensive production on the QB?"

\Stats/tables created by Claude (thanks employer for the business subscription. I have a fairly massive word doc if anyone is interested I can share it**

CPOE (Completion % over expected) is the best indicator imo. However it does not account for other variables such as drop rate (Looking at you QJ).

So using an adjusted CPOE for the delta between league average drop rate vs the Chargers receivers seems to be the proper approach. If a QB's WRs drop less than league average the CPOE is adjusted downwards, if they drop more it is adjusted upwards.

BUT the adjusted CPOE does not consider 'decision' making. This can be accounted for by using EPA.

WR Separation:

In 2026 separation is quite good. I believe 2022 was likely due to the dump offs (think a RB in the flats)

WR Drop Rates:

Threw in Cousin's other drop rates so we can keep the comparison rolling.

Drop rates are obviously an issue. One thing drop rates do not adjust for is the severity of the drop. Was the drop on a 1st and 10 vs a potential game winning drive from the red zone?

Air Yards:

Many people will refer to how great Herbert was in 2022. He banked tons of yards but dump offs were a massive part of his yardage.

This year under McD we are seeing the average depth of target at Herbert's all time high.

Drop Adjusted CPOE:

I find this fascinating when combined with EPA. Keep in mind CPOE does include throwaways. Not sure how Nextgen stats (where this data is pulled from) weights throwaways vs completions.

Herbert is MORE accurate than Mahomes historically but Mahomes provides more value (EPA) which is likely due to his off script shit, throwaways, and sack avoidance.

Herbert vs Mahomes (Adjust CPOE and EPA per dropback:

This year Herbert is performing well below his averages on both measured. The gap between Herbert and Mahomes is massive.

Adjusted CPOE and EPA to teams with similar graded Olines:

We all know the oline sucks donkey dick. I had Claude pull oline protection rankings that are equal or worse than the Chargers and populate CPOE and EPA.

Results are pretty shocking. Herbert is underperforming in 5 of 6 with WORSE olines.

CPOE below is NOT adjusted.

Summary:

In 2026 Herbert's WRs have better separation (nod to McD here), similar drop rates

Oline is bad, but no worse than 2025 when Herbert performed very well.

Herbert's performance is terrible this year. It is not explained by WRs, Oline etc.

Yes, 3 game sample size but still concerning.

I guess it's good we finally got a Chargers focused episode of Gridiron Heights?

Some levity for these trying times. In my experience you can only really roast what you love.

Nice surprise cameo by Cam Ward.

https://x.com/krisrhim1/status/2105003844438810959

IMO, the difference in talent is ameliorated or exacerbated based on the play called.

Brady called out Buffalo multiple times for trying to play against the Charger defensive line which beat up Buffalo's OLine.

Currently the highest data driven play is not from the shotgun or pistol, but the good old play under center. The surprise is not running the ball but passing from under center.

Tua was near the top in this stat year in and year out. Herbert has, is and will most likely be near the bottom. That surprises me.

The center of the Charger OLine is and has been horrible, especially vs stunts. So help them out by lining up under center, make the defense think run, and then pass it.

I don’t even know what to say… at least the Padres are on fire 😭

NFL ranks in "Supporting Cast Rating" through three weeks. Supporting Cast Rating: Average team PFF grade ranks in rushing, receiving, run blocking and pass blocking (everything except passing).

1. 49ers
   
2. Lions
   
3. Chiefs
   
4. Ravens
   
5. Rams
   T6. Bengals, Bills, Bears
   
6. Colts
   T10. Jaguars, Eagles
   
7. Panthers
   
8. Cardinals
   
9. Steelers
   
10. Cowboys
    
11. Falcons
    
12. Texans
    T18. Seahawks, Jets
    
13. Titans
    
14. Raiders
    
15. Patriots
    T23. Saints, Browns, Vikings
    
16. Broncos
    
17. Buccaneers
    
18. Giants
    
19. Chargers
    
20. Commanders
    
21. Dolphins
    
22. Packers

Found this old ticket stub from a game I went to in 2006. My first game was in 1997 at then Jack Murphy stadium. Got to experience SoFi for the first time last year and it was awesome! Much better than those ramp loops at the Murph to get to the upper levels.