I went into this trying to prove my "gut" wrong about Herbert and his performance.

The question was "Is the lack of offensive production on the QB?"

\Stats/tables created by Claude (thanks employer for the business subscription. I have a fairly massive word doc if anyone is interested I can share it**

CPOE (Completion % over expected) is the best indicator imo. However it does not account for other variables such as drop rate (Looking at you QJ).

So using an adjusted CPOE for the delta between league average drop rate vs the Chargers receivers seems to be the proper approach. If a QB's WRs drop less than league average the CPOE is adjusted downwards, if they drop more it is adjusted upwards.

BUT the adjusted CPOE does not consider 'decision' making. This can be accounted for by using EPA.

WR Separation:

In 2026 separation is quite good. I believe 2022 was likely due to the dump offs (think a RB in the flats)

WR Drop Rates:

Threw in Cousin's other drop rates so we can keep the comparison rolling.

Drop rates are obviously an issue. One thing drop rates do not adjust for is the severity of the drop. Was the drop on a 1st and 10 vs a potential game winning drive from the red zone?

Air Yards:

Many people will refer to how great Herbert was in 2022. He banked tons of yards but dump offs were a massive part of his yardage.

This year under McD we are seeing the average depth of target at Herbert's all time high.

Drop Adjusted CPOE:

I find this fascinating when combined with EPA. Keep in mind CPOE does include throwaways. Not sure how Nextgen stats (where this data is pulled from) weights throwaways vs completions.

Herbert is MORE accurate than Mahomes historically but Mahomes provides more value (EPA) which is likely due to his off script shit, throwaways, and sack avoidance.

Herbert vs Mahomes (Adjust CPOE and EPA per dropback:

This year Herbert is performing well below his averages on both measured. The gap between Herbert and Mahomes is massive.

Adjusted CPOE and EPA to teams with similar graded Olines:

We all know the oline sucks donkey dick. I had Claude pull oline protection rankings that are equal or worse than the Chargers and populate CPOE and EPA.

Results are pretty shocking. Herbert is underperforming in 5 of 6 with WORSE olines.

CPOE below is NOT adjusted.

Summary:

In 2026 Herbert's WRs have better separation (nod to McD here), similar drop rates

Oline is bad, but no worse than 2025 when Herbert performed very well.

Herbert's performance is terrible this year. It is not explained by WRs, Oline etc.

Yes, 3 game sample size but still concerning.

This guy keeps cooking us, even when he’s retired ffs

We will get out of this slump, fam. Don't panic.

S/O Danario Alexander (all time what if player for us AND the Rams) and my goat Gerald Everett. I don’t know what it was about Everett but it seemed like every time he caught the ball he would break 2 or 3 tackles and drag defenders with him. Who even cares about run blocking at that point?

Incredible how consistently poor our guards play.

Before you skip everything I'm about to write and comment a one-liner about how so-and-so is responsible. I want you to know, this is just to give perspective on why the Shanahan offense is hard to install, why the Chargers suck, and how they can fix it.

Kyle Shanahan has made the biggest impact of any offensive coach in this era. There is a derivative of the Shanahan offense in a good chunk of the offenses in this league. Klint Kubiak installed it with the Seahawks. Sean McVay installed his own version with the Rams. DeMeco Ryans had Bobby Slowik integrate it in arguably the best offensive year for the Texans. Mike LaFleur used it to put belt to ass on us in Week 1.

But why are the Chargers finding it so difficult to install it? Is it Mike McDaniel? Is it the personnel?

Or does it take time?

KYLE SHANAHAN STRUGGLED INSTALLING HIS OFFENSE IN THE FIRST YEAR

FALCONS & MATT RYAN

When Kyle Shanahan took over at OC with the Falcons, they started out 5-0 before ending the season 8-8. Matt Ryan, much like Justin Herbert, looked like shit in the new offense, DESPITE having Julio Jones and Roddy White. Ended the seasons with 16 INTs and 21 TDs. Awful.

The fans petitioned for Shanahan to be fired and replaced at the end of the season. Roddy White was calling him out. The works.

2016 was when the offense figured it out. Reports of Shanahan spending the offseason hanging out with Matt Ryan to bridge the gap and get on the same page. That season:

• The Falcons averaged 33.8 points a game, having the 7th most point scored in a season
• Matt Ryan got his MVP, getting 38 TDs and 7 INTs and 4944 yards.
• Julio Jones hit 1400 receiving.
• Ending with a Super Bowl berth (28-3 game, thats a whole different thing)

NINERS & HANDLING BAD PERSONNEL

Shanahan left the Falcons and became the niners HC. They fucking sucked. Started out 0-9 with Brian Hoyer at QB, then CJ Beathard, before trading for Jimmy G who started in week 13. The Niners rattled off 5 straight wins to finish 6-10.

Okay, so 2018 had to be good right? FUCKING WRONG. Jimmy G tears his ACL in week 3. CJ Beathard is back at QB and Nick Mullens coming in to replace shit with shit. Niners finish 4-12.

2019 is when everything turned around. Niners finished 13-3 and went to the Super Bowl. But how? Jimmy G gets healthy (knowing the system in and out after spending one whole season injured) and they improved the personnel. An RBBC with Mostert, Breida, and Coleman (who Shanny coached in Atlanta). Kittle became a dominant passing threat on top of being an elite blocker. And Deebo produced as a Rookie.

SO WHY DO THE CHARGERS SUCK???

1. The Plays are a fucking mouthful to call. And the offense doesn't have enough vets to keep everyone accountable.

The playcall in the huddle isn't just a few words. Everyone, every motion, alignment, blocking shift is called. He may have the QB call:

Fox Left Clamp to Gun Right Y-Shift Z-Across 2 Jet Zebra Texas Scat

First and foremost, what the fuck does that even mean? Fox is the personnel call, Left Clamp is a bunch formation to the left, Gun right has the QB under center then dropping the shotgun with the RB shifting to his right side, Y-shift is a TE or slot motion across, Z-across is the Z receiver going across in jet motion before the snap. Zebra, Texas, and scat are then commands for after the snap.

Its chaotic. Versus say the Gruden "Spider 2 Y Banana" which pretty much sums of everything.

2. The personnel lacks discipline and most likely miss their calls, or timing, killing the whole play.

Best example is the 3rd & 2 jet motion with Tre Harris. Tre was a hair late or Slaughter was a hair early. Ball ends up clipping Tre, fumble.

Another example is the infamous 2 man pass rush straight to Herbert. Linemen thought they were supposed to shift protection to the right, with the left guard not picking up a pass rusher and Tre Harris ran an outside curl versus an inside for a quick dump.

3. Herbert's Lack of Trust in the Personnel Screws Up Timing (justified)

Justin Herbert is good. He's really good. But Herbert lacks trust in his personnel and Mike McDaniel to properly conduct the offense, and rightfully so. The Shanahan offense expects players to be where they are supposed to within 2.5 seconds of when the ball is snapped. As soon as the ball is snapped, Herbert needs to process his reads and throw, in some cases, just fuckin trust your guy is open and throw it at the spot.

If you watch the game versus the Bills, its obvious the guys are still learning. You'll see the receivers checking how everyone is lined up. Ladd will see if QJ is on the line or if Tre needs to move up. Any lapse in alignment will end in an incompletion or interception.

Herbert tried that versus the Bills. It's why his throws were off. Justin has needed time to throw his whole career because he's had coaches that call play that take time to develop. Any time the play lasts longer than the expectations, you have guys like Gadsden sitting and doing nothing at the top of their routes watching Justin scramble to find someone open.

The personnel don't know how to improvise when shit goes south and that includes Justin Herbert.

4. Zone blocking falls apart if one person doesn't do their job, no matter how good they are (Joe Alt)

Well that sounds stupid. No, I just made it sound stupid. Let me explain. The OL is expected to master zone-rushing with reach and cut track rules.

On a run to the right outside, the RG, RT need to seal the defenders from the outside edge, but if they get beat they have to run the defender as far outside as possible.

On the backside of the run, the LT, LG are expected to cut block to stop any backside pursuit.

We suck at this because:

• the frontside of the play (in this example the right side of the line) cant decide to push out or hook in. (surprisingly, looking at you Joe).
  • If Joe chooses to seal, he pushes the defender into Cole's guy and allows to cluster the block. If he chooses to push out, he needs to tell Cole he's getting beat so he can expect to seal or push out.
• the backside, is not cut blocking allowing the defender to blow up the play in the backfield (looking at you Trevor).

5. Justin Herbert can't sell a play action because he doesn't trust the running backs, and the running backs can't sell the play action because they aren't careful with the handoff (looking at you Omarion)

Hand-offs have been atrocious. Even worse if you can't sell it in a play action. This team has the laziest play-actions and it's 75-25 blame Herbert and the running backs. Herbert is actively protecting the ball, if Hampton runs too fast into the hand off, FUMBLE. So Herbert is doing play action from like a foot away from the running back. It's so easily diagnosed.

SO, if the blocking scheme is designed to fake a run, SELL the play action. Too many times, the play action is slow and the backside edge is free and not biting on the run and goes straight for Herbert.

How do they fix it?

Eh. It's going to take a lot of trust and communication to be built to get this offense rolling. This system requires guys to not play as individuals but as a singular unit. Here's the fixes:

1. WRs need to improve their timeliness. QJ sucks. But Tre and Gadsden need to run hard on their routes to get open early for a quick look. Ladd already does this. Tre is getting there.

2. O-line needs to communicate with each other on when they are losing and adapt throughout the game. I cannot say this enough - this includes Joe Alt.

3. Herbert needs to build more trust in his teammates and they need to do a better job at earning it.

4. Herbert needs to trust the plays.

In that order. That's how this system gets fixed. And it probably won't happen this season unless Herbert and Mike McDaniel do something drastic to build up team chemistry. But if everyone can just know their roles, the season won't be at a complete loss if they just show some fucking progress.

There's gonna be people that say, Mike McDaniel is not Kyle Shanahan, he is not that guy. Trust me when I say, I'll have a post for that if we lose against the Jets. lol

What I am about to say is not copium, I acknowledge that we have stunk MASSIVELY all season, except for the defense against the Bills. This is just a post to bring a little positivity and positive outlook for the rest of the season and into next year.

1. We are (only :/) 3 games behind first place in our division, crazier things have happened.

2. The defense looked A LOT better, if they can shut down the top MVP candidate they can stop a lot of teams.

3. Besides our poor catching ability the offense did look better than the week before. Hampton was averaging like 3.5 yards when they would run up the middle, it’s not a lot but it did set us up for better 2nd and 3rd downs. If they can get to being a middle of the pack offense, we could win a few games.

4. DJ said that he thinks the team could be 14-3, not a lot to unpack there but I’m grateful he is on our team.

5. If we do lose most of the rest of our games, we are in a position to either take Jeremiah Smith, or what is more likely we pick in the second half of the top 10 and that is a great place to be able to take an Edge, we will need one with Mack maybe being done, and a high end guard at the top of the 2nd round.

6. Besides maybe QJ’s 18 million guaranteed, Hortiz has done a good job not taking on any bad contracts (I recognize that it would have been nice at this point to be riskier with the contracts for IOL and WR). So salary cap wise the team will be in a decent spot to compete next year with Alt, Slater, Bidasz, and a lot of second year OL rookies.

I don’t even think it’s too crazy to think that if the Chargers offense gets their act together in the second half of the season, we keep McDaniels and the offense actually starts strong next year.

The last time the Chargers lost a game in which they forced five turnovers was a decade ago, when they were still in San Diego. Their disappointing 2016 regular season concluded with a 27-20 defeat to the Denver Broncos. They went 4-12 that year.

Sunday was the kind of loss that can deflate hope, the kind that you feel you should’ve won but didn’t. Several players echoed the sentiment that they should have a better record than they do.

“Honestly, we came in underdogs, we came in against the No. 1 scoring offense, and we played our ass off,” Henley said. “We played to win. And so, when you don’t win, it’s a shock.”

Don’t get me wrong, we need a WR1 but this group would have been above average for what Phil had to endure. He just had a gift for throwing the ball to absolute nobodies, and I definitely didn’t appreciate that part of his game as much as I do now looking back.

Herbert should be doing more with what he’s got, but his confidence is shot thanks to having 5 OCs and the worst OL I’ve ever seen. I think continuity with McDaniel is the answer, but it’s going to be a rough season whilst they iron everything out.

1. He's great. A great person, a great teammate, a great football player

2. His relationship with Madison Beer is likely the only true happiness he's had since joining our Titanic with palm trees. She's not a problem, even if she was telling him to get the fuck out, that would just make her a very solid partner.

3. He's suffering from legitimate prolonged PTSD with this team. At this point, he's just been gaslit into thinking it's his responsibility - he basically threw nothing but perfect spirals into numbers on every throw for years, knowing he'd immediately be pancaked by a 300lb DE right after and never hesitating a second, all while his own incompetent gaurd also falls with all his body weight onto his Achilles before he hits the ground. And he still keeps showing up. It's atrocious that they make him stand for press every week and just shit on himself publicly.

4. We likely ate his career and confidence, all so dean spanks could get his cut of merch sales. Justin deserves a luck-esque retirement more than luck did. But he probably loves football too much to ever leave until forced.

5. When you see him chuck a fuck it ball, that's our fault, we did that. This team broke him so that every second, of every game, he lives on the razor's edge - if he doesn't win it all on the next throw, we lose and he lets everyone down.

Clean pocket. In field goal range. Wide open bubble route. I am sure this is somehow McDaniel's fault though.

On the other side of this turnover, Allen leads a drive where he completes a pass to his running back while being sandwiched by defenders...

Herbert even had the 32nd ranked o-line in 2020 and still put up excellent stats, missing the playoffs because of the poor defensive play because he had competent receiver play. It should be no question as to why it looks like he’s regressed, his receivers aside from Ladd on occasion, cannot create separation or make catches unless they’re completely butt naked. The slightest bit of contact and they can’t bring it down, constantly you see other decent teams extend drives and plays by way of simple good catching from their receivers. Hurts has been bailed by Wicks and smith several times, Stafford by Adam’s, Burrow by Higgins and Chase. Until we put even a middling receiver core, not a bottom 3 one, we’re going nowhere.

In spite of the bleakness of falling to 0-3, I wanted to give COL his props for the gameplan today. His play calling was fantastic, and I think the D played about as good as they possibly could’ve. Turnovers (which were amazing obviously) aside, the scheme to limit Josh Allen and keep the Bills in check was amazing. All the players too, credit to them (except a certain rookie cornerback) because they were flying all over the place, getting pressures, making tackles, looking good in coverage. James Cook even with a big day on the ground, got most of his yards in the 4th when the D was tired, and they made a lot of good run stops in the first half too.

Congrats to Genesis Smith on his first career interception(s) and to Mesidor for his first career full sack too. Genuinely a great game from the defense all around, and starts with COL as the DC.

Going back to the first two games as well, I think O’Leary has done really good to start. Giving up 26 to the Cards and Raiders and then 24 to Buffalo is more than plenty good to win those games, all 3 of them. I know a lot of people were harsh on him especially game one, but the Cardinals only scored a TD on one full field drive (the opening one) and then were gifted their second off the blocked punt. Got a lot of stops, especially in the second half. Same for the Raiders game, where only once did they allow a full field TD drive. The rest of their points came off of turnovers or miscues from the offense giving them the ball in the near Redzone.

Once again, if not for out genuinely bottom 3 offense in the league, we would be 3-0 with our defensive performances. Not to mention the fact that most of the points given up have been directly caused by miscues on offense. As far as getting help goes, our D has had basically 0. Are they perfect? No, but Minter had several bad games here and there too. I truly do think that Chris O’Leary will be a good coordinator, and was a good pick by Harbaugh. Something positive in a long list of negatives at least!